#BTC - Incoming Death Cross?
Technicals
The story of the week ahead will be the incoming death cross on the moving averages.
The faster moving averages (the 20 day and 50 day) crossing below the 200 day average is a strong bearish indicator - confirming a downtrend on the daily chart.
Having been rejected 3 times from the resistance generated by the bull market support band price hasn't been able to get high enough to pull the averages up and away from a bearish cross.
I'd keep a close eye on how these averages interact, I'm planning to short on a cross with $49,160 as the target.
We also have a liquidity zone that will be attractive to market makers. The wick below the 53.5k support (down to 49.2k) indicates that there are unfilled limit orders in that range that market makers will want to sweep before any price recovery.
RSI is neutral but hasn't made a higher high since 21st July indicating waning momentum.
ETF Flow
Technicals are bearish but last week even with price falling the ETFs added
13M net. If we see sustained inflows, short term price gains could easily reverse the curse of the faster moving averages, avoid the death cross and reverse price trend.
Macro
Quiet period here with us in the middle of the August lull. We do though have a potential volatility driver on Wednesday with the FOMC minutes which basically gives you an idea of what the FED were / are thinking as well as a speech from Chairman Powell speaking on Friday.
No way of knowing how this will impact the market until we hear the contents but expect volatility if trading this week.
Let me know what you think!
The story of the week ahead will be the incoming death cross on the moving averages.
The faster moving averages (the 20 day and 50 day) crossing below the 200 day average is a strong bearish indicator - confirming a downtrend on the daily chart.
Having been rejected 3 times from the resistance generated by the bull market support band price hasn't been able to get high enough to pull the averages up and away from a bearish cross.
I'd keep a close eye on how these averages interact, I'm planning to short on a cross with $49,160 as the target.
We also have a liquidity zone that will be attractive to market makers. The wick below the 53.5k support (down to 49.2k) indicates that there are unfilled limit orders in that range that market makers will want to sweep before any price recovery.
RSI is neutral but hasn't made a higher high since 21st July indicating waning momentum.
ETF Flow
Technicals are bearish but last week even with price falling the ETFs added
13M net. If we see sustained inflows, short term price gains could easily reverse the curse of the faster moving averages, avoid the death cross and reverse price trend. Macro
Quiet period here with us in the middle of the August lull. We do though have a potential volatility driver on Wednesday with the FOMC minutes which basically gives you an idea of what the FED were / are thinking as well as a speech from Chairman Powell speaking on Friday.
No way of knowing how this will impact the market until we hear the contents but expect volatility if trading this week.
Let me know what you think!
Disclaimer
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