Bitcoin Bullish Triangle Or Double Top, Part 2
Updated
So far Bitcoin is following the path of the triangle on the left. Yesterday we could see an attempt from the bulls to break out already, based on the shape it was much to soon. It did however even break the 9450, but bears were simply waiting to catch the price with their short orders. Now it looks like we might be at an important stage. We bounced up 200 points from today's low but at the moment are testing the triangle support again. So we might get our answer coming hours to which pattern might play out.
Think if the 9100/9000 breaks, the double top becomes very likely. There is a backup plan for the bulls though and that is making a bull flag out of both patterns. We can't know upfront what it will be, but we can follow the volume on the drop (assuming we drop to 8800ish). If the volume reaches the size of that yellow circle, the double top is much more likely. Because inside a flag volume should never reach the levels of the start of the flag.
Alts have clearly weakened since yesterday, even with all the zigzag movements bitcoin made yesterday, alts remained very strong and made me doubt a lot about a drop. Now they have weakened, so both options are very likely to me at this point.
I posted a few updates in my free channels yesterday, about some spoofing i kept seeing. They did however play it on both sides, think i even saw some wash trading. Based on what i saw, so ignoring all TA, my guess was going down (this was a few hours before that last push to 9480). So again, it was a guess based on things i used to see a lot in first half of 2018. Only i could say was, very likely to see a big move happen. Only other options i can think of is the following:
These whales simply play the short term trader. Since we had so many 100/200 dump/pumps happen in seconds, it could simply mean that only these moves was their goal. So not a big move to 8200 or 10.000.
Anyway, at the moment, the triangle support is holding, just made a unconfirmed higher low at 9100. If it gets above the 9250, bull will be in favor again. If we touch 9400/50, it will be very likely to see it break. Chances would be like 75%. However, to prevent a nasty Bart move, the volume needs to be very big at the break out. So a big green candle that shows huge buying and breaking the bears and their stops. We have seen what happened the past 2 days, the 9400 gets sold off quite easily because buy volume is just not enough yet.
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Previous analysis:
Think if the 9100/9000 breaks, the double top becomes very likely. There is a backup plan for the bulls though and that is making a bull flag out of both patterns. We can't know upfront what it will be, but we can follow the volume on the drop (assuming we drop to 8800ish). If the volume reaches the size of that yellow circle, the double top is much more likely. Because inside a flag volume should never reach the levels of the start of the flag.
Alts have clearly weakened since yesterday, even with all the zigzag movements bitcoin made yesterday, alts remained very strong and made me doubt a lot about a drop. Now they have weakened, so both options are very likely to me at this point.
I posted a few updates in my free channels yesterday, about some spoofing i kept seeing. They did however play it on both sides, think i even saw some wash trading. Based on what i saw, so ignoring all TA, my guess was going down (this was a few hours before that last push to 9480). So again, it was a guess based on things i used to see a lot in first half of 2018. Only i could say was, very likely to see a big move happen. Only other options i can think of is the following:
These whales simply play the short term trader. Since we had so many 100/200 dump/pumps happen in seconds, it could simply mean that only these moves was their goal. So not a big move to 8200 or 10.000.
Anyway, at the moment, the triangle support is holding, just made a unconfirmed higher low at 9100. If it gets above the 9250, bull will be in favor again. If we touch 9400/50, it will be very likely to see it break. Chances would be like 75%. However, to prevent a nasty Bart move, the volume needs to be very big at the break out. So a big green candle that shows huge buying and breaking the bears and their stops. We have seen what happened the past 2 days, the 9400 gets sold off quite easily because buy volume is just not enough yet.
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Previous analysis:
Note
Here we can see that higher low, but needs a break of 9250ish to confirm it. This level around 9250, was of very big importance yesterday as well, it bounced up from that zone countless times. So based on that, it will be a very important level for the bull to break now. Even if we break 9250, it will increase chances for the bulls, but anything below 9350/80 can easily become a lower high and therefore a failed attempt from the bulls to complete the triangle. So what usually needs to be seen is, if the 9250ish breaks, we need to see some volume increase inside this triangle. So watching volume on the 1/5m chart helps with that
Note
I was away most of the day so i only updated in my channels. I actually just learned that i should also be able to post charts here on TV with my mobile LOL :). So will try to do it more often from now own. I showed a few bearish wedges today from the bounces up of the 8930ish. So far they have played out perfectly. From my experience, when wedges (on these low time frame) play out like this, it usually means it's not over yet with the bearish movement.
At the moment we are seeing bounce nr 7 from the 8930 zone, which also tells us something. Either a desperate attempt from bulls and bears are waiting to step their foot on the bulls after their volume dries out. Or it's actually the other way around. See it a bit as the 7500 a week ago, several attempts from the bears to break that big neckline at 7450/500, but they simply failed and the bulls did a counter move up.
On the right we can see what starts to look like a curved low. When this holds, we could just move back up again. So at this point, first small step for the bulls is breaking 9050 and the more important one is around 9150.
The bears have one job, that is breaking this green support around 8920. Now if this happens, the volume will tell us what the next likely step will be. Either the 8200/8400 (double top target) or maybe still that big bull flag as shown above.
Note
There is something going on now. Some big market buys and what seemed to be spoof buy orders, seems as if they are for real this time. It's nothing normal of course, just some people with enough money to move the market as they please. Anyway, the translation of this, is the potential double bottom now on the right. If we see a good move up above the 9150ish, it will prob trigger a double bottom with a target around 9300. At the moment, i can't say what it will do, what can we do if some people start to buy with 5/10 mil orders and put in even more buys like that in the orders book.
What i can say, if we reach 9150/20, and see a decent bull flag in that zone, a break up will become very likely then.
Note
The double bottom has played out partially, but it's a very weak move up though. You can compare it like the EOS double bottom trade i posted a week ago. Where it also failed to reach it's target. Also the volume at the break of that channel also very weak. So at this point i think we might have a range between 9220 and 9050. Target of the W bottom is around 9300/50. Usually when an asset fails to reach its target, we get to see a counter move.
The EOS trade
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New Nano analysis:
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Bitcoin is just not making it's mind up. Not moving up but also not dropping. So it's might become a consolidation after all, which is in favor of the bulls if we continue to stay this close to the highs. Still not convinced yet of another move up though. We might have what looks like a triangle now, which has a target around 9400/9500. But the volumes have been crap on both sides, so bulls and bears are not reaching any targets. So don't know how much value we can give these patterns now.
9250 still looks to be a level, and the 9400/9500 zone as well. If we see a nice touch of 9450/500 again, chances for another leg up will increase a lot more. Because it could mean the triangle that failed yesterday, might have turned into a bigger one now. Just a lot of noise and difficult for me to get a grip on things short term.
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New Bitcoin Fractal analysis:
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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