These lower prices have been causing some anxiety among traders. Is Bitcoin about to drop even lower? Could it even fill that BTC CME Futures gap at 20k? Well, as you know, anything is possible. But we’re about trying out best to find price movement with the greatest probability. And so, that is what I’d like to look at today.
First off, let’s rule out that 20k possibility rn. The biggest reason that I’d like to do so is because we just have far too much strong support underneath our current price on many levels. For one, we have not even broken below the orange area. Previous resistance has now become strong support. Then, underneath that, we have that rising red channel that coincides somewhat with our 200 day moving average. And finally, below that, at 25,300 my neckline from a huge cup and handle pattern which we have already re-tested. If we would somehow break below this level, 20k would definitely be in the cards. Right now however, it is the most unlikely scenario.
Okay. Let’s talk about the positives:
Still above the orange area
BTC in a bullish triangle
RSI confirms with a bull flag
And, as stated already, tons of support on the underside of us now
The most likely scenario really becomes that another move up is coming soon within a week or two. We have reached resistance at the top of that bull triangle and so it is likely that we may not break out of it immediately. Thus, we could drop another $500+ to anywhere from 28.3k to 28.8k at which point my best guess is that we’ll finally reverse from this point.
Another chart we should be tracking is the SPY chart (below). A move below 450 could indicate the bulls have become exhausted and we’ll collapse back down into our channel or below. Bitcoin would likely mimic price action and follow stocks down. So, keep at least this chart in your sites as well.
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