Three Bearish Scenarios for BTC's Near Future
The volumes levels are decreasing drastically each month (not only on Coinbase) and for the price to go back up consistently, one of the following reactions should take place:
The factors that are controlling the BTC's price dynamics right now are the following:
The sell-off marks indicate the price ranges with low volumes that, if hit, would trigger buyers at the lower support levels to cash in.
In order to estimate the path for the near future, one must try to estimate the fair price. Mathematical indicators seem to point around 20K based on historical volume analysis as well as averaging. To reach this level quickly, that would pertain a market crash and would damage BTC's reputation as a storage of value. To reach it slowly, that would the longest time of slow decay until the next bull, as indicated by the red path. Another "fair" value could be 35K where lots of volumes were already done. If we fall from the current Fibonacci level, a sell-off around 45K would push us down quickly 35K where we would spend long time in that range (yet less than what we would spend in the 25K range) until the next bull. This sounds more plausible to me.
The Fibonacci time zones can give an idea about when to expect the next bull in case this one is already over, which I believe is the case. Generally, the lower the price gets, the longer it would take to rise again, but any bear wouldn't be shorter than a year.
- A massive and quick sell-off the brings the price to a level perceived as undervalued but not too low which triggers a spring upwards resurrecting the bull (40K seems to be a reasonable level for springing and avoiding a longer bear).
- The price keeps decreasing gradually with volume until both flattens for a while on what would be perceived as the fair value. The flatness should eventually, but rather slowly, ignite a new bull provided the fundamental events are favorable.
The factors that are controlling the BTC's price dynamics right now are the following:
- Tight coupling with the market (see kinked idea below).
- Rising speculation on ETH and the alt coins.
- Decline in retail investing, which originally started the current bull (there's an article in FT about it today)/
The sell-off marks indicate the price ranges with low volumes that, if hit, would trigger buyers at the lower support levels to cash in.
In order to estimate the path for the near future, one must try to estimate the fair price. Mathematical indicators seem to point around 20K based on historical volume analysis as well as averaging. To reach this level quickly, that would pertain a market crash and would damage BTC's reputation as a storage of value. To reach it slowly, that would the longest time of slow decay until the next bull, as indicated by the red path. Another "fair" value could be 35K where lots of volumes were already done. If we fall from the current Fibonacci level, a sell-off around 45K would push us down quickly 35K where we would spend long time in that range (yet less than what we would spend in the 25K range) until the next bull. This sounds more plausible to me.
The Fibonacci time zones can give an idea about when to expect the next bull in case this one is already over, which I believe is the case. Generally, the lower the price gets, the longer it would take to rise again, but any bear wouldn't be shorter than a year.
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