Bitcoin - Preparing For The Next Move!
Updated
Hey everyone, it's been a while since I actually posted a shorter-term trade setup. I've mostly been focusing on analyzing the crypto market as a whole and trying to figure out the overall direction, as well as the philosophical implications of current price action. Right now, I'm feeling mostly neutral on the market, hence the trade setup in both directions. While price action has been impressive, there is no new high for the market as it remains in a technical downtrend since 2018.
Bitcoin volume has declined to a point where it historically starts to pick up some volatility. In my recent video, I discussed why I would like to see some continued sideways for the market, with this month closing at or near current prices. So part of me thinks that this will just get bought up. Ideally, for the bullish scenario, I'd like to see Bitcoin slowly creep up and build pressure against 10K. The breakout above there would need to be incredibly strong. There isn't really any room for it to move slowly THROUGH the 10K area. It just needs to clear it in one go. This is the philosophy behind the long setup here.
In this chart, there are a number of trendlines. The purple shows the previous rising wedge resistance (now support). The highest light blue line (if you zoom out), is the resistance I've drawn since the all-time high. The other light blue trendlines represent the current uptrend, with the bottom one purely being a speculative parallel trendline to the one where we've found resistance.
With all that in mind, here are the long and short setups:
LONG
If Bitcoin bounces aggressively anywhere between here and 8900 while sustaining above 9800 on the bounce, price can hit 11K and then 12.5K. Reasoning - volume is still low on this dump. It can easily be a bear trap. Uptrend support can be found as low as 8900-9000. 9100 is the key level to maintain though. If price bounces at these levels and makes a new local high (9900+) then momentum favors bulls again.
SHORT
The first target from here would be in the low 9K zone. Below there, the technicals start to look bad, and momentum would favor the bears. While there's short term support around 8600, I think there would be enough selling to take prices down towards 7.7K. Reasoning? Bitcoin is still unable to make a higher high, even by the smallest margin.
That's it!
This is not financial advice. This is meant simply for my own observational purposes, as well as speculation and education. I want to see if these setups have any merit. I enjoy pressing play once the move occurs to see how it reacted to my horizontals and diagonals :)
-Victor Cobra
Bitcoin volume has declined to a point where it historically starts to pick up some volatility. In my recent video, I discussed why I would like to see some continued sideways for the market, with this month closing at or near current prices. So part of me thinks that this will just get bought up. Ideally, for the bullish scenario, I'd like to see Bitcoin slowly creep up and build pressure against 10K. The breakout above there would need to be incredibly strong. There isn't really any room for it to move slowly THROUGH the 10K area. It just needs to clear it in one go. This is the philosophy behind the long setup here.
In this chart, there are a number of trendlines. The purple shows the previous rising wedge resistance (now support). The highest light blue line (if you zoom out), is the resistance I've drawn since the all-time high. The other light blue trendlines represent the current uptrend, with the bottom one purely being a speculative parallel trendline to the one where we've found resistance.
With all that in mind, here are the long and short setups:
LONG
If Bitcoin bounces aggressively anywhere between here and 8900 while sustaining above 9800 on the bounce, price can hit 11K and then 12.5K. Reasoning - volume is still low on this dump. It can easily be a bear trap. Uptrend support can be found as low as 8900-9000. 9100 is the key level to maintain though. If price bounces at these levels and makes a new local high (9900+) then momentum favors bulls again.
SHORT
The first target from here would be in the low 9K zone. Below there, the technicals start to look bad, and momentum would favor the bears. While there's short term support around 8600, I think there would be enough selling to take prices down towards 7.7K. Reasoning? Bitcoin is still unable to make a higher high, even by the smallest margin.
That's it!
This is not financial advice. This is meant simply for my own observational purposes, as well as speculation and education. I want to see if these setups have any merit. I enjoy pressing play once the move occurs to see how it reacted to my horizontals and diagonals :)
-Victor Cobra
Note
First lower target hit, around 8900. Bitcoin was unable to SUSTAIN above the 9800-9900 area and break 10K, so it's gone down to the lower part of the range. If Bitcoin can't continue to bounce from here back towards 9800, I think it's decently possible we see sub-8K prices.Note
After hitting 8900, it's taken quite a long time for Bitcoin to do anything significant. The big move hasn't presented itself yet. Targets remain roughly the same. Regardless, there needs to be much larger volume to either sustain below 9K or hold above 9.9K.Note
This has really drawn out much longer than I'd expected. Still in the range between 8.9K and 9.8K. While today's candle doesn't look great, all price needs to do for upside is break above these two trendlines and hold above the 50d MA (red). For downside, Bitcoin would need to close at or below current levels. Alts still look quite good, generally speaking. 
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