BTC Bullish Wedge (Quick Sketch)

Updated

This is just a quick sketch of one possible scenario. I have zero idea what really happens. Do not use this to play the market.

Note

Is this bullish wedge pattern about to break to the upside?

They've closed above the bullish line and held the neckline of the huge head and shoulders.

Note

Price is ready to breakout of the bullish wedge pattern. Will it break and keep going or fail?

Note

When you zoom out, it really looks like one huge bull flag in a down slopping wedge pattern.

Note

The breakout from the bullish wedge looks to be holding so far. Get above 24K and the breakout is confirmed (breakout, test, resumption).

Note

They're at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. If this plays out, expect overhead resistance between now and between 25K - 25.5K. Bust through and it opens the door to higher numbers. Get rejected and we are looking at a retest of 21K.

Note

They've completed the left shoulder and head of the inverse head and shoulder, right on time and exactly on target.

They are now working on the right shoulder which could come down to 20.5K or worst case 17.5K

Note

I think the low for the right shoulder is in. Most likely price will try to break out of this inverse head and shoulders next. It will only be confirmed if we close a weekly candle above ~25.5k

Note

They closed a weekly candle above the inverse head and shoulder breakout. Not only did they break out, but they broke out with confidence (up 26%). This is one of the larger weekly candles Bitcoin has printed in a long time.

What happens next? I don't have any other major resistance, so they could be looking to test the last major rejection (48K).

I don't know if we get there in one straight line or if it's met with large retracements.

The retracement back to the inverse head and shoulders neckline (25k) seems likely before we reach 48k. It was a very important price, being badly rejected there last August and then spending over a month building energy to break above it.

This will be volatile, so expect large moves in both directions. A 30% retracement is normal during a bull market rally.

Note

After price went sideways for several weeks (building energy for another move higher), price is back above 30k.

There is still a 50/50 probability that price comes back to 24 - 25K to retest a very important breakout area.

Otherwise there is no other major resistance labeled on my chart until the 48K target.

I don't expect it to be a straight line up and a 30% retracement would be normal during a rally and would open the opportunity to buy the dip off support.

I would not be trying to short this at this time. The trend is your friend until the very end. Don't try to be a hero and think you'll nail the top of this move. The market tends to make it very difficult for shorts to get an entry.

Note

The inverse neck and shoulder line is holding in place and price has been going sideways back and forth for weeks building energy for the next move higher. A break above 30K and next target is 48K. I don't think we go up in a straight line so expect volatility and strong pull backs.

Note

Since March, BTC has been going back and forth consolidating. Nothing to really see unless it breaks down below 25K or breaks above 32K.

All the negative sentiment and price farming on Twitter and Youtube has really no mattered. It's consolidating going sideways. Nothing more and nothing less.

When it does break down or breakout, expect a large move. The more consolidation, the bigger the move. I would expect a breakout to take us to my target of 48K and a breakdown could go all the way down to 12k.

Note

After many months of sideways action, it looks very good to hit the target of 46/48k. Think about all the FUD and noise throughout this consolidation period but if you zoomed out and stacked sats and sat on your hands, you'd be in profit.

Trade closed: target reached

Target reached at 46K. The chart worked out 100% from Nov 2022 until Jan 2024. With patience and sitting on your hands (ignoring the FUD, doom and gloom, and Twitter 'influencers'), you could have relaxed and made a nice profit.

I think price ultimately goes higher, especially with the halving cycle, but this target has been reached and a good place to take some profit. I could imagine sideways to a pullback of 20-30% unless we get some major positive news.

XYZ-Trader-

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.