BTC HALVING - UPDATE 4 - THE IMPORTANCE OF THE 5800-7600 AREA
Hello everyone, it is 1 month from halving today, so which best occasion for doing the last update for a while on the subject. I will update it as long as new info from market data will be available, it can take few months.
You can see my previous idea linked below.
Differently from the last update in which I merely used data available from the chart, I recovered the real data before august '11. The ATH at that time was different that the one assumed, so some calutation differs. You can find more details on calculation on the chart as a comment.
Lets focus on the results here:
- T1 is still in the range 85k-125k as it is linked on gold market cap (as explainedinthe previous idea);
- T2 is now 200k;
- T3 is 370k;
I already explained how the last two, obtained by merely calculations, can be unrealistic as BTC shows a logarithmic growth and not a linear one.
- another target (let's call it T4) is still 52k as it is based on time, not on other functions.
Now I would like to explain similarities I found when comparing different halvings for BTC.
Why is it important?
Well, The same pattern happens over an over, and this can help us identifying in which phase we are in and which are the price level of attention tounderstand where we are moving next.
Every halving shows this:
1 - parabolic move (the red exponential lines)
2 - big retracement channel (turquoise channels) that break through ALL the fibo retracement levels (61, 32 and 23 %) identified with green lines
3 - a leg up with lower max than the ATH until then.This is just a retracement of the previous leg down, whose retrace level are identified with small red lines.
4- before the next halving the price consolidates between the 61% retracement of the leg up (green line) and the 23% retracement of the leg down (red line): I identified those areas with red rectangles.
5- note that every after halving high helps us identify the next halving ATH as a channel is formed (big black channels). It is followed very well from the price. Look how the 2011 high and the 2014 one, together with the 2012 low identified the channel that met the 2017 ATH. We need 3 points to identify this channel and we already have them for the next halving: 2014 high, 2015 low, 2017 high. The lower boundary should be the one that identifies the next ATH. In the past the red line and the lower boundary correspond. Was it a random occurrance or they are the same thing? Actually, with one 1 available data from the past, we do not know. YET. Atm I identified an alternative red line that FOR THE MOMENT is working. When we will discover whether it is true or fake? Point number 6 will help us in answering.
6 - when the black channel is broken to the downside (red circle), that is the accumulation area, that also identifies the min. The fact that as of now we just broke it for a couple of days, may tell us that the accumulation phase still have to take place.
So, where are we now?
I said many times that the June 19 spike was an anomaly, a "mistake", or at least something new that did not happened in the past. Indeed we came back to "normal" values thereafter. Now we are exactly in the red rectangle area, from 7600 to 5800. In the past when it was broken on the upside in proximity to the halving, the real HALVING MODE begun. So pay attention tothe 7600 level.
Also, as said before, should the price go below the black channel (6400 now), we may face an prolonged accumulation phase as in 2015. WOuld be weird because it would happen after halving, but we do not have many data to say that an event NEVER HAPPENED IN THE PAST SO IT CAN NOT HAPPEN.
What to do ?
Priority now is to pay attention to the 5800-7600 levels and identify the real line to follow: the lower boundary of the channel or the red one? Will see.
The next red line is very important as it will identify the bottom and the next HIGH. Also, the timing in which all targets identified can occur can be easily reversed engineered from the hypotetical intersection with that line.
PS
As of now the one I drawed is momentaneous as we do not have data yet. But we need to have a new ATH first to be certain of which red line are we folowing. This one I drawed can be wrong as the last one was just the lower boundary of the big black channel. If this will be the case also this time, we will have to reconsider the 52k LEVEL (the one exclusively based on time) and the TIMING at which the other targets will be met (the absolute value will remain the same though). We just have one past data about this, so we just have to wait for new data.
You can see my previous idea linked below.
Differently from the last update in which I merely used data available from the chart, I recovered the real data before august '11. The ATH at that time was different that the one assumed, so some calutation differs. You can find more details on calculation on the chart as a comment.
Lets focus on the results here:
- T1 is still in the range 85k-125k as it is linked on gold market cap (as explainedinthe previous idea);
- T2 is now 200k;
- T3 is 370k;
I already explained how the last two, obtained by merely calculations, can be unrealistic as BTC shows a logarithmic growth and not a linear one.
- another target (let's call it T4) is still 52k as it is based on time, not on other functions.
Now I would like to explain similarities I found when comparing different halvings for BTC.
Why is it important?
Well, The same pattern happens over an over, and this can help us identifying in which phase we are in and which are the price level of attention tounderstand where we are moving next.
Every halving shows this:
1 - parabolic move (the red exponential lines)
2 - big retracement channel (turquoise channels) that break through ALL the fibo retracement levels (61, 32 and 23 %) identified with green lines
3 - a leg up with lower max than the ATH until then.This is just a retracement of the previous leg down, whose retrace level are identified with small red lines.
4- before the next halving the price consolidates between the 61% retracement of the leg up (green line) and the 23% retracement of the leg down (red line): I identified those areas with red rectangles.
5- note that every after halving high helps us identify the next halving ATH as a channel is formed (big black channels). It is followed very well from the price. Look how the 2011 high and the 2014 one, together with the 2012 low identified the channel that met the 2017 ATH. We need 3 points to identify this channel and we already have them for the next halving: 2014 high, 2015 low, 2017 high. The lower boundary should be the one that identifies the next ATH. In the past the red line and the lower boundary correspond. Was it a random occurrance or they are the same thing? Actually, with one 1 available data from the past, we do not know. YET. Atm I identified an alternative red line that FOR THE MOMENT is working. When we will discover whether it is true or fake? Point number 6 will help us in answering.
6 - when the black channel is broken to the downside (red circle), that is the accumulation area, that also identifies the min. The fact that as of now we just broke it for a couple of days, may tell us that the accumulation phase still have to take place.
So, where are we now?
I said many times that the June 19 spike was an anomaly, a "mistake", or at least something new that did not happened in the past. Indeed we came back to "normal" values thereafter. Now we are exactly in the red rectangle area, from 7600 to 5800. In the past when it was broken on the upside in proximity to the halving, the real HALVING MODE begun. So pay attention tothe 7600 level.
Also, as said before, should the price go below the black channel (6400 now), we may face an prolonged accumulation phase as in 2015. WOuld be weird because it would happen after halving, but we do not have many data to say that an event NEVER HAPPENED IN THE PAST SO IT CAN NOT HAPPEN.
What to do ?
Priority now is to pay attention to the 5800-7600 levels and identify the real line to follow: the lower boundary of the channel or the red one? Will see.
The next red line is very important as it will identify the bottom and the next HIGH. Also, the timing in which all targets identified can occur can be easily reversed engineered from the hypotetical intersection with that line.
PS
As of now the one I drawed is momentaneous as we do not have data yet. But we need to have a new ATH first to be certain of which red line are we folowing. This one I drawed can be wrong as the last one was just the lower boundary of the big black channel. If this will be the case also this time, we will have to reconsider the 52k LEVEL (the one exclusively based on time) and the TIMING at which the other targets will be met (the absolute value will remain the same though). We just have one past data about this, so we just have to wait for new data.
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Trade forex, oil, crypto, indices, and keep 80% of the profits you make, while losses are covered!
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