BTC still short
Updated
Looking for price to grind around and slightly up over the next couple of days. Will get close to the monthly pivot and possibly retest the broken upward trend line. Caution around the 8500 level... I believe more down in the future. During the 2015 downturn price came down and tested the yearly support. For 2018, support is at 3039. Will it get there? I don't know... but I don't think this downward momentum is complete. Good luck everyone!
Just as a note... chart is in log view.
Just as a note... chart is in log view.
Note
Price bounced off the pivot as expected. We got a nice daily close with some good volume behind it which almost perfectly lined up with the .382 retrace.A couple of concerns is that this is still a pretty crowded trade at the moment. There are a lot of shorts (and also longs). This could bounce up again towards the pivot to help thin the market out and take out some additional liquidity before moving down. One helpful item is to look at shorts vis-a-vis longs. Often, but NOT always, when shorts exceed longs, a move up is usually forthcoming (which just happened). This should be helpful in assessing risk, but obviously not alone. Keep an eye on significant levels and momentum approaching such levels.
First target was the previous bottom at ~6500. After that, it's really round numbers. 5k and 3k should be major support areas (3k is yearly support as mentioned above). There might be some bumpiness around 4k, but I expect 5k and 3k to be much more significant levels when looking at the PA from the move up.
Comments and critiques are welcome. Hope to see you at 5k in a few weeks, if not before then. Good evening from Atlanta.
Note
Weil, the levels are telling me one thing, but PA is telling me another... every dip is being bought... hard. We're still below the monthly pivot and in the down trend, but it is possible this could break. Sell volume appears to be dropping off and the markets are generally acting very choppy. Looking at the MACD on the 4 hour there has been continuous compression since the drop and then a break up. Don't know if this will hold but I'm sitting this one out for a little while until we get a clearer picture. Good luck all.
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