The purpose of this analysis is less of a predictive nature but rather more of a record of common sense thought and observations.
I don't think anyone really knows beyond a shadow of a doubt what Bitcoin will do next. The best we can do is look back at it's history and try to make sense of it in order to gain common sense ideas about what we can expect. My main mode of operation is trend lines, sometimes dozens of them. And I have here on the weekly chart a long term resistance (July 2016) and support (Jan 2020) marked in blue. And some time ago I drew the red and yellow short term support lines and extended them just to see what would happen.
As you can see in the chart, Bitcoin has broken the yellow line and attempted to cross back above it, and I'm not ruling that option out just yet, however when I look at this on a smaller time frame the price action looks like it's trying to flip the yellow into resistance. This scenario makes sense for a couple of quick reasons, the first being common sense in that the yellow line is extremely steep and one would have to wonder how long BTC can keep pace with it. The second reason is that the RSI is showing a head and shoulders pattern, as I've circled below the candlestick chart. However I think even the red short term trend line eventually will prove to be too steep of a climb to keep pace with as well, and it too will eventually be tested.
On the bullish outlook, BTC came down to retest the previous ATH at around 74K and bounced from it. In doing so, it completed the necessary distance for the double top and theoretically could continue its run up beyond 110K. It also touched the lower boundaries of Bollinger Bands (I'm limited to 2 instruments on the free acct. , so check for yourself) on several mid to long term time frames, increasing the possibility of a bullish continuation from there.
However, I lean more toward the bearish scenario for reasons I stated above. And because it's been a while since BTC touched its long term support (marked in blue) and history does repeat itself. I however do agree that the 40K area would be difficult to reach because of demand expected near the 68K, 53K and 49K zones.
This is not a trade suggestion or advice of any kind, however the best action at this point is to be patient and take a wait and see approach until price action makes a more definitive confirmation of either bullish or bearish trend to come.
I don't think anyone really knows beyond a shadow of a doubt what Bitcoin will do next. The best we can do is look back at it's history and try to make sense of it in order to gain common sense ideas about what we can expect. My main mode of operation is trend lines, sometimes dozens of them. And I have here on the weekly chart a long term resistance (July 2016) and support (Jan 2020) marked in blue. And some time ago I drew the red and yellow short term support lines and extended them just to see what would happen.
As you can see in the chart, Bitcoin has broken the yellow line and attempted to cross back above it, and I'm not ruling that option out just yet, however when I look at this on a smaller time frame the price action looks like it's trying to flip the yellow into resistance. This scenario makes sense for a couple of quick reasons, the first being common sense in that the yellow line is extremely steep and one would have to wonder how long BTC can keep pace with it. The second reason is that the RSI is showing a head and shoulders pattern, as I've circled below the candlestick chart. However I think even the red short term trend line eventually will prove to be too steep of a climb to keep pace with as well, and it too will eventually be tested.
On the bullish outlook, BTC came down to retest the previous ATH at around 74K and bounced from it. In doing so, it completed the necessary distance for the double top and theoretically could continue its run up beyond 110K. It also touched the lower boundaries of Bollinger Bands (I'm limited to 2 instruments on the free acct. , so check for yourself) on several mid to long term time frames, increasing the possibility of a bullish continuation from there.
However, I lean more toward the bearish scenario for reasons I stated above. And because it's been a while since BTC touched its long term support (marked in blue) and history does repeat itself. I however do agree that the 40K area would be difficult to reach because of demand expected near the 68K, 53K and 49K zones.
This is not a trade suggestion or advice of any kind, however the best action at this point is to be patient and take a wait and see approach until price action makes a more definitive confirmation of either bullish or bearish trend to come.
Trade active
Note
This looks like a convincing flip of this trend line to resistance. I'm taking a modest short position here. 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.