The Bitcoin is Rekt.
Updated
I haven't published an idea for a while, though I have been calling some price levels. I wanted to put out an idea that shows what possible levels we have and where we could end up.
The three day is nice and proper rekt at the moment. The weekly, three day and higher timeframes are all signaling a massive short. The price has failed to cross the horizontal resistance on many occasions now, and the analysis would have it that we don't even get there any time soon. The push last time from sub 6k was probably our last chance to redeem ourselves. Some interesting points:
1. The death cross on daily is all but assured now. This is the 200/50 MA cross. This has been a signal into an extended bear market in the past. Given the small amount of historical data this may or may not be true this time, but we should consider this a valid possibility. Bitcoin has never recovered from a daily death cross.
2. The cold wallets have not yet been broken out to take profits, they will. The folks that held through the last 2 year bear market will not sit and try to see their profits dwindle. Money is a great catalyst.
So where do we end up?
We have a couple of options here that may play out. We may go down to complete the bat at 6400 level and bounce back up. We may decide to go straight down. We are obeying the larger downward channel shown here, and until we break 11,200 we cannot expect anything to happen.
So how is the greater crypto space looking? Pretty bad. EtH is getting more and more rekt by the day, and $350 ETH or lower seems quite plausible. This would be the same story on every other asset too.
My suggestion is caution. You can stay in the market and try to catch the dips. Those dips are going to get deeper and bounces shorter.
So whats the bullish argument here? The weekly, 3day have now bottomed up so much on the indicators, and the huge accumulation that has happened may drive the price up over a long term. The only problem is that this will be short lived.
The three day is nice and proper rekt at the moment. The weekly, three day and higher timeframes are all signaling a massive short. The price has failed to cross the horizontal resistance on many occasions now, and the analysis would have it that we don't even get there any time soon. The push last time from sub 6k was probably our last chance to redeem ourselves. Some interesting points:
1. The death cross on daily is all but assured now. This is the 200/50 MA cross. This has been a signal into an extended bear market in the past. Given the small amount of historical data this may or may not be true this time, but we should consider this a valid possibility. Bitcoin has never recovered from a daily death cross.
2. The cold wallets have not yet been broken out to take profits, they will. The folks that held through the last 2 year bear market will not sit and try to see their profits dwindle. Money is a great catalyst.
So where do we end up?
We have a couple of options here that may play out. We may go down to complete the bat at 6400 level and bounce back up. We may decide to go straight down. We are obeying the larger downward channel shown here, and until we break 11,200 we cannot expect anything to happen.
So how is the greater crypto space looking? Pretty bad. EtH is getting more and more rekt by the day, and $350 ETH or lower seems quite plausible. This would be the same story on every other asset too.
My suggestion is caution. You can stay in the market and try to catch the dips. Those dips are going to get deeper and bounces shorter.
So whats the bullish argument here? The weekly, 3day have now bottomed up so much on the indicators, and the huge accumulation that has happened may drive the price up over a long term. The only problem is that this will be short lived.
Note
SO Part 2 of this idea is the bullish take. We just bounced off the long term 2017 trend line in our previous dump. What this means is there is still hope. If this is an accumulation wyckoff test, we will go back to test the demand down at below 7k, or range here with some serious shakeouts. The horizontal resistance is still at 11.8, and the log resistance is now much lower around 11.2. If the 11.2 breaks, we may see a push up to 15k quite easily. I also this at some points the alts will decouple themselves from bitcoin.
Note
It couldn't look any more bearish even if it tried. 3day chart above playing out perfectly. I expect a bounce at 6, low 7 levels up to 10-10.5. After the bounce is done, I expect it to do down all the way to 3k.Note
Looking at 3Day this is not the bottom. Just a bounce to play with.Note
Still rekt. Two Major levels coming up at 9.3 and 10.3Note
It really wants to pull this move and then go even lower. Note
Bitcoin still wants to bleed out -- there is no confirmed reversal here ... yet. I think we may bleed out for the next couple of months. However as we start to go lower, there is a huge accumulation going on. This can only mean we see a 50k bitcoin end of 2018, or very early 2019. This is a no trade zone, and accumulation zone on spot.Note
Retesting above channel line. Break of 8600 is bullish. However a hard rejection will trigger a further sell off.Note
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