BitcoinUpdated Bitcoin: the slow and long decline pattern is still valid
3 Failed rallies: 11.700, 9.900, 8.500.
Every time Bitcoin retested the 6.000 level.
If it retests this level that often, and that many times, it is because it wants to go below it.
It is now very likely to happen : lack of liquidities to inject in the market, pressure of the bears with exhausted bulls, the early big time investors sold their Bitcoins to the little investors during December and January which leaves the coins in the hands of easy panicking new investors.
I am going to be very quick and very clear : if Bitcoin settles below this 6.000 level and does not create a fake breakout (if we don't see an important raise above 6.000$) then we will witness a very important panic sell momentum.
There could be a bounce here as this level is extremely crucial for the previous bullish structure to remain, and for a lot of miners. But Bitcoin could end up dropping and settling below the 6.000.
We will have a mixture of investors panicking, and miners panick selling. Yes this is possible and now likely to happen.
The panic of alts started to happened, the panic of Bitcoin can of course also happen.
This panic sell-off is likely to happen, Bitcoin tested too many times the 6.000 line of life of its 2017 bullish structure, and failed its rallies. It should break below with very important odds, i would say around 80%.
I am again completely neutral to this market, i try to focus on probabilities and realistic up/down moves.
The most realistic trend is still to picture a slow and long decline pattern of Usd value, as seen in 2014-2015.
It is now extremely unlikely that Bitcoin bottomed at 5.800$.
Where will it drop if it settles below 6.000 and starts to panic sell?
We have some Fibonacci levels around 5.200, 4.400, 3.300, and 1.800 that could stop the drops and why not restart a bull cycle one day.
But i am quite certain we should see a long bear market incoming, if Bitcoin settles below this 6.000$ structure line of life.
Beware, this is a red flag in my opinion.
Every time Bitcoin retested the 6.000 level.
If it retests this level that often, and that many times, it is because it wants to go below it.
It is now very likely to happen : lack of liquidities to inject in the market, pressure of the bears with exhausted bulls, the early big time investors sold their Bitcoins to the little investors during December and January which leaves the coins in the hands of easy panicking new investors.
I am going to be very quick and very clear : if Bitcoin settles below this 6.000 level and does not create a fake breakout (if we don't see an important raise above 6.000$) then we will witness a very important panic sell momentum.
There could be a bounce here as this level is extremely crucial for the previous bullish structure to remain, and for a lot of miners. But Bitcoin could end up dropping and settling below the 6.000.
We will have a mixture of investors panicking, and miners panick selling. Yes this is possible and now likely to happen.
The panic of alts started to happened, the panic of Bitcoin can of course also happen.
This panic sell-off is likely to happen, Bitcoin tested too many times the 6.000 line of life of its 2017 bullish structure, and failed its rallies. It should break below with very important odds, i would say around 80%.
I am again completely neutral to this market, i try to focus on probabilities and realistic up/down moves.
The most realistic trend is still to picture a slow and long decline pattern of Usd value, as seen in 2014-2015.
It is now extremely unlikely that Bitcoin bottomed at 5.800$.
Where will it drop if it settles below 6.000 and starts to panic sell?
We have some Fibonacci levels around 5.200, 4.400, 3.300, and 1.800 that could stop the drops and why not restart a bull cycle one day.
But i am quite certain we should see a long bear market incoming, if Bitcoin settles below this 6.000$ structure line of life.
Beware, this is a red flag in my opinion.
Note
The weekly chart shows Bitcoin is still above the 50 Smma (the weekly tool showing if Bitcoin is in a bull run or in a bear market).The daily chart shows Bitcoin is in a bear market (below the pink 200 Smma).
If the weekly chart shows Bitcoin below this blue 50 Smma, then both the daily and weekly would indicate Bitcoin is in a bear market.
Which means Bitcoin will be in a complete bear market.
Exemple of Bitcoin in a bull market in 2015-2016-2017, above the weekly 50Smma:
And above the daily 20 Smma :
Note
Hope this makes it more clear, this is regarding the weekly chart.
The same process applies for the daily chart and the 200 Smma.
Now time to study the incoming moves.
Note
I don't repeat it enough, but the 2 hours chart is actually very important with Bitcoin. Still using the 200 Smma and the 50 Smma.Note
Bots seem to be preferring a rejection of the 50 Smma?
Note
It was indeed valid.786 stopped Btc the same was as in 2015
Will it hold is the question.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.