Bitcoin 2021 Bear Market
Updated
The current Bitcoin sentiment is very bullish, the majority of people are expecting the new mega bull run to start now, and are laughing at the idea of prices below 6k (hell, they are laughing at the idea below 20k too).
There are 3 main features of any market peak:
I am expecting the bottom to hit around the end of 2021 / early 2022 at $2,400. If the drop takes too long to happen, BTC can make a higher low (6k-ish). Timing will be key here.
You may be thinking that 2.4k is absurd, but aside from all the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci calculations I used, let's have a look at the underlying psychological aspect.
Around late 2017, the masses were exposed to Bitcoin. This is when the major hype began. Tons of people have been opening longs during the last 3 years while Bitcoin ranged sideways with fake FOMO rallies, further accumulating the retail longs.
Now, you gotta ask yourself - if the masses are opening longs, and the price will indeed rally now, who is going to pay out their profits later?
The world just doesn't work that way, there's no free money.
Which is why, I believe that all those retail 'investors' that bought Bitcoin for the long term, and have been very patiently waiting for the bull run - are going to get liquidated once they see new lows.They will simply lose it, sell everything and proclaim Bitcoin a dead scam.
If your argument is that "institutions are buying BTC", then all I have to say on the matter is: They are most likely hedging even bigger shorts in private, leading the masses onto the slaughter to profit in billions from it. Remember, they aren't here to make you rich, they are here to make themselves rich.
Once Bitcoin gets rid of the extra baggage (those longs accumulated over 3/4 years), it will proceed with the great bull run of 2022-2024, reaching $100,000 and more.
Now, of course, they can't just crash the market without an excuse. Which is why the media will probably blame COVID-21 and/or Tether imploding.
-Hawk
If you are interested in more frequent analysis, feel free to visit the Alien Crew Discord community, link below.
There are 3 main features of any market peak:
- Good News (PayPal and Banks started to use Crypto, institutions buying crypto, etc)
- Parabolic increase in price (just look at the chart)
- FOMO / People irrationally bullish (We got that too)
I am expecting the bottom to hit around the end of 2021 / early 2022 at $2,400. If the drop takes too long to happen, BTC can make a higher low (6k-ish). Timing will be key here.
You may be thinking that 2.4k is absurd, but aside from all the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci calculations I used, let's have a look at the underlying psychological aspect.
Around late 2017, the masses were exposed to Bitcoin. This is when the major hype began. Tons of people have been opening longs during the last 3 years while Bitcoin ranged sideways with fake FOMO rallies, further accumulating the retail longs.
Now, you gotta ask yourself - if the masses are opening longs, and the price will indeed rally now, who is going to pay out their profits later?
The world just doesn't work that way, there's no free money.
Which is why, I believe that all those retail 'investors' that bought Bitcoin for the long term, and have been very patiently waiting for the bull run - are going to get liquidated once they see new lows.They will simply lose it, sell everything and proclaim Bitcoin a dead scam.
If your argument is that "institutions are buying BTC", then all I have to say on the matter is: They are most likely hedging even bigger shorts in private, leading the masses onto the slaughter to profit in billions from it. Remember, they aren't here to make you rich, they are here to make themselves rich.
Once Bitcoin gets rid of the extra baggage (those longs accumulated over 3/4 years), it will proceed with the great bull run of 2022-2024, reaching $100,000 and more.
Now, of course, they can't just crash the market without an excuse. Which is why the media will probably blame COVID-21 and/or Tether imploding.
-Hawk
If you are interested in more frequent analysis, feel free to visit the Alien Crew Discord community, link below.
Note
Seems like we're getting an extension of this rally, check the latest post.Note
Discord: discord.gg/zwmaKKPsTg
Hawk Liquidation Theory: medium.com/@FinanceHawk
Algo: tradingview.com/script/1BLhORNz-Alpha-Numerologia-by-Alien-Crew/
Indicator Private Access in Discord.
Hawk Liquidation Theory: medium.com/@FinanceHawk
Algo: tradingview.com/script/1BLhORNz-Alpha-Numerologia-by-Alien-Crew/
Indicator Private Access in Discord.
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