When Lambo?
Updated
Yes, we all want the Lambo, but first we need to understand where we are and how can we get there.
In this monthly chart, i want to walk over the trends.
I think the most remarkable event that changed the direction of where Bitcoin was headed, was the hard fork of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV) back in November 2018. These were the most serious attacks that was made to Bitcoin. The damage was done, but time has proved Bitcoin is here to stay and these forks are moving fast towards zero.
That crash back in November 2018 has set the begining of a new uptrend we are currently in.
As much as Bitcoin tried to turn back to it's broken trend, it failed to do so and started a new accumulation period for 17 Months ending in OCT 2020. The Covid crash surely helped the accumulation and the tank had enough fuel to make new highs.
After breaking 13.8k in October, the new all time high came within just one month at 19.804 and the rocket was unleashed with the markup to almost 42k where the distribution was started.
At the vacinity of 45k, Bitcoin got in to overbought area and the distribution schematic continued to play for another 4 months, following a mark down to 29.6k
Now, we are expecting 100k, but how is that possible?
We have just ran out of fuel in the tank and we need to be accumulate to fill the tank. However the volume profile data suggests at least $18.76 billion worth Bitcoin was sold since the mark down and so we are not in accumulation but in redistribution!
This is why we couldn't break above 36-37k and showed enough strength to move upwards until now.
Just look at the bottom of the uptrend and tell me we are not going there, if not lower.
The COVID rally is over and the composite man is selling. We have no idea how much Bitcoin he can dump on us. That's why i strongly believe we will see 20's before we see 100k and it's quite a conservative target. We may even see 12k as it's the top line of support of previous accumulation.
Don't agree? Change my mind!
In this monthly chart, i want to walk over the trends.
I think the most remarkable event that changed the direction of where Bitcoin was headed, was the hard fork of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV) back in November 2018. These were the most serious attacks that was made to Bitcoin. The damage was done, but time has proved Bitcoin is here to stay and these forks are moving fast towards zero.
That crash back in November 2018 has set the begining of a new uptrend we are currently in.
As much as Bitcoin tried to turn back to it's broken trend, it failed to do so and started a new accumulation period for 17 Months ending in OCT 2020. The Covid crash surely helped the accumulation and the tank had enough fuel to make new highs.
After breaking 13.8k in October, the new all time high came within just one month at 19.804 and the rocket was unleashed with the markup to almost 42k where the distribution was started.
At the vacinity of 45k, Bitcoin got in to overbought area and the distribution schematic continued to play for another 4 months, following a mark down to 29.6k
Now, we are expecting 100k, but how is that possible?
We have just ran out of fuel in the tank and we need to be accumulate to fill the tank. However the volume profile data suggests at least $18.76 billion worth Bitcoin was sold since the mark down and so we are not in accumulation but in redistribution!
This is why we couldn't break above 36-37k and showed enough strength to move upwards until now.
Just look at the bottom of the uptrend and tell me we are not going there, if not lower.
The COVID rally is over and the composite man is selling. We have no idea how much Bitcoin he can dump on us. That's why i strongly believe we will see 20's before we see 100k and it's quite a conservative target. We may even see 12k as it's the top line of support of previous accumulation.
Don't agree? Change my mind!
Note
I sold my car and i'm not buying Bitcoin 
Note
I'll update this as well. Point of No Return 
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