⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 1W) – (Date: July 01, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $106,464.00.
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1W):
▦ EMA21 – ($98,213.17):
∴ The EMA21 has provided dynamic mid-term support since early Q4 2024;
∴ Recent pullbacks respected the line precisely, confirming its role as tactical trend anchor.
✴ Conclusion: Tactical bullish posture maintained. Rejection above EMA21 signals controlled bullish continuation.
⊢
▦ Week Moving Average 200WMA – ($60,425.78):
∴ The 200WMA continues its upward ascent, now surpassing the symbolic $60k level;
∴ Price remains structurally elevated, approximately 76% above the WMA baseline, marking a strong long-term cycle support.
✴ Conclusion: Structurally bullish. The 200WMA acts as a deep support; no signs of cyclical exhaustion.
⊢
▦ Volume + MA21:
∴ Volume remains within normal bounds, with no explosive or capitulative behavior;
∴ The 21-week average volume shows steadiness, confirming institutional absorption rather than speculative frenzy.
✴ Conclusion: Price action is supported by consistent volume. There is conviction, not hype.
⊢
▦ RSI + EMA21 – (RSI: 61.01 | EMA: 60.00):
∴ RSI remains stable above the 60-threshold, traditionally a bull-control zone;
∴ The EMA21 on RSI sits just beneath it, reflecting sustainable momentum without overheating.
✴ Conclusion: Momentum is alive and consistent. Pressure is not euphoric, but persistently positive.
⊢
▦ Mayer Multiple – (1.11):
∴ The current Mayer Multiple (Price ÷ 200WMA) is at 1.11, far below critical cyclical warning zones;
∴ Historical peaks formed above 2.4–3.2×, placing current readings in neutral-to-accumulative territory.
✴ Conclusion: No signs of macro-top formation. Room for expansion remains open within cycle structure.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ Bitcoin maintains an elevated stance above all major structural supports;
∴ No indicators suggest euphoric excess or terminal cycle behavior;
∴ Momentum, structure, and volume all reflect the essence of a mature but breathing bull cycle, silently advancing.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ MVRV Ratio – (2.22):
∴ The current MVRV remains below the historical danger zone of >2.5;
∴ Price is elevated, but not euphoric - reflective of controlled structural ascent.
✴ Conclusion: BTC sits in the upper-middle band of valuation. No top formation indicated, but vigilance required.
⊢
▦ Exchange Reserve – (All Exchanges – 2.4M BTC (new low):
∴ Continuous decline in BTC held on exchanges since Q4 2022;
∴ Signals that coins are being withdrawn to self-custody – typical of conviction-based accumulation.
✴ Conclusion: Supply is drying from trading venues. This is fundamentally bullish and reduces short-term dump risk.
⊢
▦ Realized Cap – ($958B):
∴ The realized capitalization is climbing in tandem with price - without flattening or divergence;
∴ Indicates strong inflow of high-conviction capital setting new cost-bases.
✴ Conclusion: Market is absorbing price increases via real buyer interest. Structural support is being rebuilt at higher levels.
⊢
▦ Short-Term Holder Realized Price & Profit/Loss Margin:
∴ Profit margins are rising but remain beneath the historical 70% “euphoria line;”
∴ No extreme deviation between spot price and realized price.
✴ Conclusion: Profit-taking is occurring in equilibrium. No signs of unsustainable speculation.
⊢
▦ Spent Output Profit Ratio – (SOPR - 1.036):
∴ Values above 1 indicate net selling at a profit;
∴ However, the ratio is stable and modest – no spike.
✴ Conclusion: Profitable selling is active, but not excessive. Market is cycling profits without panic or climax.
⊢
▦ Stablecoin Supply Ratio - (SSR – 17.6):
∴ A high SSR means fewer stablecoins relative to BTC -> lower immediate buy-side liquidity;
∴ This aligns with observed euro-stablecoin inflows and USD retreat.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin price is rising without massive stablecoin inflow. Potential for future upside if SSR compresses.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle:
∴ All six indicators converge on a structurally bullish;
∴ Tactically stable market;
∴ There is no evidence of blow-off top, exhaustion, or manic distribution;
∴ Supply is retreating, valuation rising moderately, and profit cycles remain rational.
⊢
⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicvs:
▦ Macro-Structural Narrative:
∴ Bitcoin closed Q2 2025 with a +29.9% quarterly gain - (source: CryptoRank);
∴ The rally is attributed to growing institutional adoption, bolstered by pro-Bitcoin policies of the Trump administration, including treasury-on-chain initiatives;
∴ Macroeconomic tension around trade wars has eased, fueling upward movement in both BTC and the S&P 500, signaling synchronized risk-on appetite - (source: Coindesk).
✴ Conclusion: The quarterly momentum reflects fundamental confidence, not speculative heat, Bitcoin is tracking macro cycles and policy favorability - not detaching from economic logic.
⊢
▦ Liquidity Rotation Signal:
∴ While BTC saw a record monthly close above $106K in June, attention turned to the Euro, which surged ~4%, outperforming Bitcoin ~2.5% monthly gain - (source: Coindesk);
∴ This signals capital movement out of the USD and into alternative monetary zones, including euro-pegged stablecoins, highlighting a shift in liquidity strategy.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin performance remains strong, but stablecoin flows suggest hedging against USD, and potential cross-currency dynamics now influence crypto markets more than in past cycles.
⊢
▦ Institutional Absorption:
∴ Q2 2025 marked multiple treasury-scale Bitcoin purchases, the most notable was Strategy Inc.’s addition of $531 million in Bitcoin;
∴ Coindesk reports increasing movement of aged coins, suggesting long-term holders are realizing profit selectively, not exiting fully;
∴ Realized on-chain gains estimated around $2.4 billion, but SOPR and STH-P/L data show no speculative frenzy.
✴ Conclusion: Institutional reaccumulation is active - distribution is rational, not euphoric, the market is cycling profits, not dissolving conviction.
⊢
▦ Sentiment & Policy Alignment:
∴ Trump’s active endorsement of Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve instrument" has galvanized corporate treasuries and conservative capital;
∴ Policy signals from the U.S. now mirror early El Salvador-like rhetoric but on a scaled geopolitical stage;
∴ Meanwhile, legislative friction in the EU is softening, with euro-stablecoin flows confirming multi-jurisdictional bullish alignment.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is evolving from speculative asset into a political-economic monetary instrument. Its adoption curve is now influenced by state-level policy vectors, not just market actors.
⊢
⧈ Synthesis – Silent Codex Verdict:
∴ Bitcoin’s Q2 expansion is rooted in structural convergence: (policy + macro easing + institutional inflows + on-chain discipline);
∴ The asset is not overheated, and continues to mature within a globalized, politically aware framework;
∴ The cycle breathes silently, with strength.
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ Resistance remains near $110K–112K, region of monthly closure highs;
∴ EMA21 at $98K defines tactical floor - breach would signify shift in short-term conviction;
∴ SSR at 17.6 suggests temporary stablecoin dryness, delaying momentum ignition.
✴ Conclusion: Tactical posture is consolidative, awaiting macro or capital inflow catalyst.
Upside remains open, but not yet inevitable.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ Structurally Bullish – (Tactically Controlled);
∴ Bitcoin maintains long-term structural dominance, anchored above the 200WMA and supported by rising Realized Cap and exchange outflows;
∴ The RSI + EMA21 structure confirms active but non-euphoric momentum;
∴ MVRV at 2.22 and SOPR at 1.03 reflect profitable cycling, not late-stage irrationality;
∴ No blow-off volume or destabilizing divergence across timeframes.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is in mid-cycle ascension, exhibiting maturity, discipline, and policy-aligned backing. The structural bullish thesis is intact.
⊢
⧉
⚜️ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⧉
⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 1W) – (Date: July 01, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $106,464.00.
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1W):
▦ EMA21 – ($98,213.17):
∴ The EMA21 has provided dynamic mid-term support since early Q4 2024;
∴ Recent pullbacks respected the line precisely, confirming its role as tactical trend anchor.
✴ Conclusion: Tactical bullish posture maintained. Rejection above EMA21 signals controlled bullish continuation.
⊢
▦ Week Moving Average 200WMA – ($60,425.78):
∴ The 200WMA continues its upward ascent, now surpassing the symbolic $60k level;
∴ Price remains structurally elevated, approximately 76% above the WMA baseline, marking a strong long-term cycle support.
✴ Conclusion: Structurally bullish. The 200WMA acts as a deep support; no signs of cyclical exhaustion.
⊢
▦ Volume + MA21:
∴ Volume remains within normal bounds, with no explosive or capitulative behavior;
∴ The 21-week average volume shows steadiness, confirming institutional absorption rather than speculative frenzy.
✴ Conclusion: Price action is supported by consistent volume. There is conviction, not hype.
⊢
▦ RSI + EMA21 – (RSI: 61.01 | EMA: 60.00):
∴ RSI remains stable above the 60-threshold, traditionally a bull-control zone;
∴ The EMA21 on RSI sits just beneath it, reflecting sustainable momentum without overheating.
✴ Conclusion: Momentum is alive and consistent. Pressure is not euphoric, but persistently positive.
⊢
▦ Mayer Multiple – (1.11):
∴ The current Mayer Multiple (Price ÷ 200WMA) is at 1.11, far below critical cyclical warning zones;
∴ Historical peaks formed above 2.4–3.2×, placing current readings in neutral-to-accumulative territory.
✴ Conclusion: No signs of macro-top formation. Room for expansion remains open within cycle structure.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ Bitcoin maintains an elevated stance above all major structural supports;
∴ No indicators suggest euphoric excess or terminal cycle behavior;
∴ Momentum, structure, and volume all reflect the essence of a mature but breathing bull cycle, silently advancing.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ MVRV Ratio – (2.22):
∴ The current MVRV remains below the historical danger zone of >2.5;
∴ Price is elevated, but not euphoric - reflective of controlled structural ascent.
✴ Conclusion: BTC sits in the upper-middle band of valuation. No top formation indicated, but vigilance required.
⊢
▦ Exchange Reserve – (All Exchanges – 2.4M BTC (new low):
∴ Continuous decline in BTC held on exchanges since Q4 2022;
∴ Signals that coins are being withdrawn to self-custody – typical of conviction-based accumulation.
✴ Conclusion: Supply is drying from trading venues. This is fundamentally bullish and reduces short-term dump risk.
⊢
▦ Realized Cap – ($958B):
∴ The realized capitalization is climbing in tandem with price - without flattening or divergence;
∴ Indicates strong inflow of high-conviction capital setting new cost-bases.
✴ Conclusion: Market is absorbing price increases via real buyer interest. Structural support is being rebuilt at higher levels.
⊢
▦ Short-Term Holder Realized Price & Profit/Loss Margin:
∴ Profit margins are rising but remain beneath the historical 70% “euphoria line;”
∴ No extreme deviation between spot price and realized price.
✴ Conclusion: Profit-taking is occurring in equilibrium. No signs of unsustainable speculation.
⊢
▦ Spent Output Profit Ratio – (SOPR - 1.036):
∴ Values above 1 indicate net selling at a profit;
∴ However, the ratio is stable and modest – no spike.
✴ Conclusion: Profitable selling is active, but not excessive. Market is cycling profits without panic or climax.
⊢
▦ Stablecoin Supply Ratio - (SSR – 17.6):
∴ A high SSR means fewer stablecoins relative to BTC -> lower immediate buy-side liquidity;
∴ This aligns with observed euro-stablecoin inflows and USD retreat.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin price is rising without massive stablecoin inflow. Potential for future upside if SSR compresses.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle:
∴ All six indicators converge on a structurally bullish;
∴ Tactically stable market;
∴ There is no evidence of blow-off top, exhaustion, or manic distribution;
∴ Supply is retreating, valuation rising moderately, and profit cycles remain rational.
⊢
⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicvs:
▦ Macro-Structural Narrative:
∴ Bitcoin closed Q2 2025 with a +29.9% quarterly gain - (source: CryptoRank);
∴ The rally is attributed to growing institutional adoption, bolstered by pro-Bitcoin policies of the Trump administration, including treasury-on-chain initiatives;
∴ Macroeconomic tension around trade wars has eased, fueling upward movement in both BTC and the S&P 500, signaling synchronized risk-on appetite - (source: Coindesk).
✴ Conclusion: The quarterly momentum reflects fundamental confidence, not speculative heat, Bitcoin is tracking macro cycles and policy favorability - not detaching from economic logic.
⊢
▦ Liquidity Rotation Signal:
∴ While BTC saw a record monthly close above $106K in June, attention turned to the Euro, which surged ~4%, outperforming Bitcoin ~2.5% monthly gain - (source: Coindesk);
∴ This signals capital movement out of the USD and into alternative monetary zones, including euro-pegged stablecoins, highlighting a shift in liquidity strategy.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin performance remains strong, but stablecoin flows suggest hedging against USD, and potential cross-currency dynamics now influence crypto markets more than in past cycles.
⊢
▦ Institutional Absorption:
∴ Q2 2025 marked multiple treasury-scale Bitcoin purchases, the most notable was Strategy Inc.’s addition of $531 million in Bitcoin;
∴ Coindesk reports increasing movement of aged coins, suggesting long-term holders are realizing profit selectively, not exiting fully;
∴ Realized on-chain gains estimated around $2.4 billion, but SOPR and STH-P/L data show no speculative frenzy.
✴ Conclusion: Institutional reaccumulation is active - distribution is rational, not euphoric, the market is cycling profits, not dissolving conviction.
⊢
▦ Sentiment & Policy Alignment:
∴ Trump’s active endorsement of Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve instrument" has galvanized corporate treasuries and conservative capital;
∴ Policy signals from the U.S. now mirror early El Salvador-like rhetoric but on a scaled geopolitical stage;
∴ Meanwhile, legislative friction in the EU is softening, with euro-stablecoin flows confirming multi-jurisdictional bullish alignment.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is evolving from speculative asset into a political-economic monetary instrument. Its adoption curve is now influenced by state-level policy vectors, not just market actors.
⊢
⧈ Synthesis – Silent Codex Verdict:
∴ Bitcoin’s Q2 expansion is rooted in structural convergence: (policy + macro easing + institutional inflows + on-chain discipline);
∴ The asset is not overheated, and continues to mature within a globalized, politically aware framework;
∴ The cycle breathes silently, with strength.
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ Resistance remains near $110K–112K, region of monthly closure highs;
∴ EMA21 at $98K defines tactical floor - breach would signify shift in short-term conviction;
∴ SSR at 17.6 suggests temporary stablecoin dryness, delaying momentum ignition.
✴ Conclusion: Tactical posture is consolidative, awaiting macro or capital inflow catalyst.
Upside remains open, but not yet inevitable.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ Structurally Bullish – (Tactically Controlled);
∴ Bitcoin maintains long-term structural dominance, anchored above the 200WMA and supported by rising Realized Cap and exchange outflows;
∴ The RSI + EMA21 structure confirms active but non-euphoric momentum;
∴ MVRV at 2.22 and SOPR at 1.03 reflect profitable cycling, not late-stage irrationality;
∴ No blow-off volume or destabilizing divergence across timeframes.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is in mid-cycle ascension, exhibiting maturity, discipline, and policy-aligned backing. The structural bullish thesis is intact.
⊢
⧉
⚜️ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⧉
⊢
Note
⊢⟁ Powell vs Trump: The Silent Conflict of 2025.
∴ (Published under the Seal of Magister Arcanvm - Date: July 1, 2025).
⊢
⨀ Strategic Premise:
∴ A monetary cold war is unfolding at the core of the global financial system;
∴ On one side stands Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, guardian of the central bank's independence and inflation containment;
∴ On the other, Donald Trump, President of the United States for a second term, demanding aggressive rate cuts, nationalist industrial policies, and a Fed that bends to executive will;
∴ The outcome of this confrontation may redefine the balance of power between markets, central banks, and governments - and Bitcoin, as silent witness, may be its beneficiary.
⊢
▦ The Political Tension Layer:
∴ Trump has made it clear: Powell is an obstacle;
∴ Throughout 2024 and into 2025, Trump's team has applied pressure through public denouncements, legislative probes, and internal White House briefings targeting Powell's decision-making as "anti-American;"
∴ Behind closed doors, advisors speak of a "Post-Powell Fed" - a replacement plan for 2026, if not sooner via resignation.
✴ Conclusion: The President seeks control of the monetary narrative. Powell, thus far, resists.
⊢
▦ Monetary Pressure and Fed Posture:
∴ Powell, speaking at the ECB Sintra Forum, acknowledged tariff-linked inflation pressures but maintained the Fed's data-dependent stance;
∴ The July 9 expiration of tariff relief looms large. Powell knows new duties could inject inflation shocks - and justify staying on hold;
∴ The Fed has delayed rate cuts, but markets price a possible reduction in September. Trump wants action now, and has implied Powell is "intentionally harming growth."
✴ Conclusion: The Fed walks a razor's edge - avoiding political submission, yet aware of recession optics.
⊢
▦ Market Implications: Risk, Inflation, and Bitcoin:
∴ Equities remain buoyed by tech momentum, but volatility surfaces at every macro signal;
∴ The dollar weakens subtly as expectations of conflict between fiscal and monetary arms grow;
∴ Bitcoin closed June at an all-time monthly high, even as stablecoin inflows slowed - a sign that it is being treated as a hedge against political monetary disruption.
✴ Conclusion: As faith in fiat governance erodes, hard-coded monetary alternatives attract disciplined capital.
⊢
⧈ Silent Codex Verdict:
∴ This is no longer a purely economic battle;
∴ It is a ritual of sovereignty -between executive dominance and institutional preservation;
∴ In this silent clash, central bank credibility is the altar, and Bitcoin may be the unintended heir to the throne.
⊢
⧉
⚜️ Magister Arcanvm - Vox Primordialis!
∴ Cycle: 2025 - Phase: Ascensio Silentii.
𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⧉
⊢
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.