High Level of Uncertainty. Two Possible Scenarios!!!
Updated
There is High Level of Uncertainty Right Now
This analysis was developed using marketprofile to sort data.
What happened in previous five week:
Week 25: aggressive buying triggered by late majority entrance into the market.
Week 26: Late majority together with Laggards pushed the price to an excess high at the major resistance around $14000. The exact stop at this level & failure to break-through confirms that liquidation is mainly done by weak-hand money (late majority+laggards). Although it is a valid high, the probability of BTC holding this high is poor. Remember #JimDalton's "Exactness Kills!". Week 26 also developed a poor-low which signified the liquidation could still go on!
Week 27, very short-term traders started to buy the dips and this pushed the prices higher. However, since this bounce occurred by weaker-hand money, as it is evident by "poor low", it was unable to reach previous high at $14000. Note that the auction to the downside is NOT COMPLETE due to lack of a good base for this bounce!!! Here we got the second back to back poor-low. The odds for holding the low is very poor! Value area developed within previous week's value area indicating balancing is being formed.
Week 28: Value area was developed overlapping to slightly higher leaving a poor-high and an unchanged POC , double confirming the balance forming situation! The poor-high also signified the auction to the upside was left incomplete!
Week 29: As expected in previous analysis:
a bounce from unvisited POC of week 25 occurred. A valid low was left behind. BUT the bounce does not show enough strength to reach the target. Moreover, value developed lower and POC migrated lower. THE THINGS HAVE CHANGED & we are prone to high level of uncertainty. Last legs of week 29 was due to buying by week-hand day-timeframe traders as the push happened exactly at halfback.
What to expect now?
Sentiment is weak now. There are two scenarios at the moment:
*The more probable scenario (scenario 1) would be the Bitcoin to go lower to the unvisited POC of week 24 @ around $7950. A break below week 29 low @9049 would double confirm this scenario.
In case of scenario 2 happening, the capital may move to altcoins giving rise to altcoins' season!!!
This analysis was developed using marketprofile to sort data.
What happened in previous five week:
Week 25: aggressive buying triggered by late majority entrance into the market.
Week 26: Late majority together with Laggards pushed the price to an excess high at the major resistance around $14000. The exact stop at this level & failure to break-through confirms that liquidation is mainly done by weak-hand money (late majority+laggards). Although it is a valid high, the probability of BTC holding this high is poor. Remember #JimDalton's "Exactness Kills!". Week 26 also developed a poor-low which signified the liquidation could still go on!
Week 27, very short-term traders started to buy the dips and this pushed the prices higher. However, since this bounce occurred by weaker-hand money, as it is evident by "poor low", it was unable to reach previous high at $14000. Note that the auction to the downside is NOT COMPLETE due to lack of a good base for this bounce!!! Here we got the second back to back poor-low. The odds for holding the low is very poor! Value area developed within previous week's value area indicating balancing is being formed.
Week 28: Value area was developed overlapping to slightly higher leaving a poor-high and an unchanged POC , double confirming the balance forming situation! The poor-high also signified the auction to the upside was left incomplete!
Week 29: As expected in previous analysis:
What to expect now?
Sentiment is weak now. There are two scenarios at the moment:
*The more probable scenario (scenario 1) would be the Bitcoin to go lower to the unvisited POC of week 24 @ around $7950. A break below week 29 low @9049 would double confirm this scenario.
In case of scenario 2 happening, the capital may move to altcoins giving rise to altcoins' season!!!
Note
Bitcoin is entering the decision zone! Rejection of halfback means Scenario 2 is running!
A solid bear full body candle with healthy volume results in scenario 1.
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