BTC Weekly RSI overbought
Overview: Not sure what to make of this trend. I haven't seen any meaningful analysis on this, so I'm hoping to get feedback from this idea from those who know more. It is rare we find a pattern that plays out 100% of the time, so this analysis might prove either too shallow, or too broad to be useful, but either way, here goes:
Technical Analysis: Every single instance in which the weekly RSI for bitcoin has been overbought, it has dipped below 70 at least briefly before the next leg up. Based on my (approximate) measurements, I found that the average retracement is roughly -22% from 2016 to today. There are several more examples prior to that, and they all prove the same point.
Comments: The remarkable feature of the pattern is that it typically goes back to or below 70 within 10 days, occasional 2-3 weeks, and the longest was 4 weeks (June-July '17). Never has it taken longer, and it is also true that the higher it goes above 70, the greater the percentage drop back to 70 (seems obvious, but not necessarily true due to the way RSI is calculated. Remember we're not talking about percentage drop in RSI, but rather, the percentage drop in price relative to the RSI over the same time). So, if the trend that has never been broken continues, we would be headed to an RSI of 70 or below by Sunday b/c it is the 4th week after the peak, so that half of the equation seems unlikely. After Sunday, assuming the bottom doesn't drop out, we'll only have one more pattern to break - and a convincing turn up in the RSI after a weeks-long cool-off period without touching 70 would do the trick.
Final thoughts: If this happens by Sunday to confirm the pattern, we'd probably be around 32-33k just to meet the average retracement. If, however, it takes longer, we could easily revisit the 25-30k range. Fundamentally, this seems highly improbable, but hopefully it is something useful you can keep an eye on in the following days/weeks.
Will we see a first-ever again this coming week? I sure hope so. (and no, I am not short, but the analysis implies that, so I'm going with it).
Stay safe and have fun!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.