BitcoinLong
BTCUSD - Symmetric triangle and Fib Structure
Updated
TL;DR : Good long in marked range targeting 11800
Bullish factors :
1. Bounce off 0.5 (8200) /0.618 (7470-7780) for higher low and breakout from symmetric triangle
2. Flat kumo, TK flat, price on kumo is long call however price and K are outside cloud, so weak long.
3. Falling volume - Price is no longer bearish but is in consolidation unless symmetric triangle breaks up/down. Symmetric triangles have a mediocre continuation rate with fakeout results being fairly high, so a bullish breakout is questionable. I recommend long positions in green zone exclusively, mid term (1-2 week period)
Bearish Factors:
1. TK are close together with T above K but price below K, likely bearish cross. Bear cross below cloud is a strong short signal.
2. Price is still below cloud obviously - possibility of E2E trade is there but cloud has pulled lower so kumo resistance will be strong.
3. Uncrossed hidden bearish divergence on SRSI with confirmed hidden bearish divergence on RSI (the RSI one is currently playing out, so can be ruled out for now)
4. Possibility of a symmetric triangle being a coil instead of reversal - selling will intensify as support breaks, target is 2400 (very optimistic target for bears but unlikely in my opinion, the floor is either 6500 or 4900-5000)
Bullish factors :
1. Bounce off 0.5 (8200) /0.618 (7470-7780) for higher low and breakout from symmetric triangle
2. Flat kumo, TK flat, price on kumo is long call however price and K are outside cloud, so weak long.
3. Falling volume - Price is no longer bearish but is in consolidation unless symmetric triangle breaks up/down. Symmetric triangles have a mediocre continuation rate with fakeout results being fairly high, so a bullish breakout is questionable. I recommend long positions in green zone exclusively, mid term (1-2 week period)
Bearish Factors:
1. TK are close together with T above K but price below K, likely bearish cross. Bear cross below cloud is a strong short signal.
2. Price is still below cloud obviously - possibility of E2E trade is there but cloud has pulled lower so kumo resistance will be strong.
3. Uncrossed hidden bearish divergence on SRSI with confirmed hidden bearish divergence on RSI (the RSI one is currently playing out, so can be ruled out for now)
4. Possibility of a symmetric triangle being a coil instead of reversal - selling will intensify as support breaks, target is 2400 (very optimistic target for bears but unlikely in my opinion, the floor is either 6500 or 4900-5000)
Trade active
Entered long 7470. Stop is at break even.Note
Changing stop to 6800 for now, I will deleverage if price moves to entry.Trade closed: stop reached
Stop at breakeven.Note
Fib broken, not taking any more long term trades for now, triangle is the play
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.