BTC Daily TA Neutral Bearish
Updated
BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% BTC, 53% Cash.
*The 7th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 1.4% this morning compared to 1.6% on 08/17/22. Cryptos, Equities, Commodities (aside from Soy, Silver, Copper, and Platinum), Futures, Treasuries and DXY are all up while the Euro is flat and VIX is trending down. Markets have been volatile this week leading up to tomorrow's penultimate Q2 GDP estimate, July PCE on Thursday (if lower than June or surprises to the downside this would be a sign of inflation cooling down) and Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. As of now the consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but some are expecting a dovish pivot if July PCE inflation is down substantially on Thursday. Key Upcoming Dates: 2nd US Q2 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on 08/26).*
Price is currently trending up at 21.7k as it attempts to bounce off of the largest supply/demand zone of the year (20k psychological resistance) to retest the 50 MA at 22.4k; it is also simultaneously forming a Bear Flag starting from 08/19/22. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor buyers in two consecutive sessions if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$24180 resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing 42.41 as resistance for the first time since 07/13/22. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at 25, the next resistance is at 29.70 and support at max bottom; if it breaks below 22 then it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at -364, it's still technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 19.62 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~22.4k as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~21k as support before potentially retesting $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $20720.
*The 7th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 1.4% this morning compared to 1.6% on 08/17/22. Cryptos, Equities, Commodities (aside from Soy, Silver, Copper, and Platinum), Futures, Treasuries and DXY are all up while the Euro is flat and VIX is trending down. Markets have been volatile this week leading up to tomorrow's penultimate Q2 GDP estimate, July PCE on Thursday (if lower than June or surprises to the downside this would be a sign of inflation cooling down) and Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. As of now the consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but some are expecting a dovish pivot if July PCE inflation is down substantially on Thursday. Key Upcoming Dates: 2nd US Q2 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on 08/26).*
Price is currently trending up at 21.7k as it attempts to bounce off of the largest supply/demand zone of the year (20k psychological resistance) to retest the 50 MA at 22.4k; it is also simultaneously forming a Bear Flag starting from 08/19/22. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor buyers in two consecutive sessions if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$24180 resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing 42.41 as resistance for the first time since 07/13/22. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at 25, the next resistance is at 29.70 and support at max bottom; if it breaks below 22 then it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at -364, it's still technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 19.62 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~22.4k as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~21k as support before potentially retesting $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $20720.
Note
Correction: "July PCE on Thursday" should be "July PCE on Friday"Note
Correction: "if July PCE inflation is down substantially on Thursday" should be "if July PCE inflation is down substantially on Friday"
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