BTCUSD Bitcoin longer term cycles - A rough view of the future
Updated
Here is a glimpse into the longer-term predicted future of Bitcoin. Based on several longer term past cycles, we can attempt to predict the future moves. Please see my other ideas for shorter term bitcoin cycles and for cycles in other markets. I have put the links below.
Using this chart from the BITSTAMP exchange I have examined 3 different occurring cycles since 2011. There are more cycles than this, and you can see the shorter term cycles on my other idea.
The non-bold red and green solid lines are a cycle which each half cycle is around 4mo. The darker dotted line is a longer cycle and each half cycle is around 1 year and 3 months. The green and red backgrounds are the longer cycles of approx 2 years for each half cycle. When mutliple cycles are green, the growth is stronger, and when some are red and some are green, they work against each other. Multiple red zones causes more of a correction.
These patterns also seem to be forming an elliot wave pattern. We can likely expect a longer wave 5 in the next green zone.
Our shorter cycle on this chart the 4mo half cycle is harder to calculate accurately. I have put effort into trying, and I think it is close. I believe this cycle will end approx August or September. We are in the 15mo green cycle until around December 2018. On the longer term, we have been in the longer term RED cycle since around December 2017. After December 2018, this chart seems to point to the correction being stronger in 2019. At the end of the longer term red zone we should get another chance to buy in.
Please note that other coins are connected with Bitcoin, but the longer term cycles of other coins may not be exactly the same. But we do not have much long term data on many of the coins.
This chart seems to confirm that we are in a longer term downtrend, but we will have the 15 mo half cycle and the 4mo half cycle both green until approx Aug/September. That means even though there is a downtrend, we can see some upside from here.
Look for yourselves and see what you think.
Check my links to other ideas.
Using this chart from the BITSTAMP exchange I have examined 3 different occurring cycles since 2011. There are more cycles than this, and you can see the shorter term cycles on my other idea.
The non-bold red and green solid lines are a cycle which each half cycle is around 4mo. The darker dotted line is a longer cycle and each half cycle is around 1 year and 3 months. The green and red backgrounds are the longer cycles of approx 2 years for each half cycle. When mutliple cycles are green, the growth is stronger, and when some are red and some are green, they work against each other. Multiple red zones causes more of a correction.
These patterns also seem to be forming an elliot wave pattern. We can likely expect a longer wave 5 in the next green zone.
Our shorter cycle on this chart the 4mo half cycle is harder to calculate accurately. I have put effort into trying, and I think it is close. I believe this cycle will end approx August or September. We are in the 15mo green cycle until around December 2018. On the longer term, we have been in the longer term RED cycle since around December 2017. After December 2018, this chart seems to point to the correction being stronger in 2019. At the end of the longer term red zone we should get another chance to buy in.
Please note that other coins are connected with Bitcoin, but the longer term cycles of other coins may not be exactly the same. But we do not have much long term data on many of the coins.
This chart seems to confirm that we are in a longer term downtrend, but we will have the 15 mo half cycle and the 4mo half cycle both green until approx Aug/September. That means even though there is a downtrend, we can see some upside from here.
Look for yourselves and see what you think.
Check my links to other ideas.
Note
Note
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Update 6/10/18. The crypto market has gotten slammed. So far I don't think this really changes anything I said before. I did say multiple times, the actual bottom does not necessarily occur exactly at the transition lines of the cycle. The market could even go down from here over the next 2-3 days, possibly. We will see. Note that the previous bottom before this was May 29. If the bottom does not occur on the exact date of the cycle, then it means we usually have some type of double bottom pattern, though one of the double bottoms can be higher than the other. We need this kind of selling day to let the buyers step in. So, I still think we can see this as a buying opportunity. If it goes a bit lower, then an even better buying opportunity. Look for better selling times between August - October.Note
Update 6/12/18. I suspect most likely that the bottom will be anywhere between today and 6/15/18. It's hard for me to tell exactly what day based on the shorter cycles. It could go a bit lower, or maybe not. Either way, I think its a chance to buy now.Note
Please see my new idea at:
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