There are certainly plenty of valid bearish and more bullish short term alternatives, but this is my current primary count. Looks like lots of 3 waves so its either a leading diagonal or a bearish WXY and we see a lower low or there is an even bigger bull count of 12 12 12, but that seems least probable. If this is a leading diagonal it seems we are at least headed for the .618 on the way back which is in the 11k range but if we are strong we can break the .618 and maybe grab the .786. That would set up a massive 3rd wave that takes us to new all time highs. I think interesting times are ahead.
Note
Macro view could see another trend line break and retest on the larger fractal. Note
Looking for a break of the short term down trend and regaining 8600 as support to confirm a low, other wise 8k could still be tested
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Note
Continuing with my expectations of a leading diagonal I believe we are now making the 1 of the 3 wave as noted here. The challenge with this count is the heavy resistance we have above at the .618 and the downtrend line from the all time high. Breaking that however gives a lot of confidence of the bull run to come. We will see how we react when we get there, gotta let it play out. Note
As noted in the chart my assumption is that we would reject there, but if bullish we will break that trend line, and retest it(in the larger 4 wave) before heading up and potentially tagging the median lineNote
That would ultimately setup the 1 wave on the larger degree, and give us a correction back to the 10k zone before beginning a march to new ATHs
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.