Long

Bullish Divergence on Bitcoin Daily RSI

Updated

Bullish divergence on the daily RSI confirmed 20 minutes ago:

Here is a cheat sheet on divergence: i.imgur.com/wVw4L6h.png

Here is a historical look at daily divergence since we reached ATH 6 months ago:

As you can see, they all played out at least for the short term giving bulls some relief.

Point and Figure Chart i.imgur.com/8SZZPNz.png Yesterday we confirmed a column of 14 O's. Just now we confirmed a column of 6 X's, retracing yesterday's long pole. A pullback to $4,499 would complete unresolved long pole dating back over 8 months ago and is our next likely long-term target. Short term, we have a recent unresolved long pole of 16 O's from 6/10, a move above 7,040 would resolve 50% of the pole.

Here is a look at Major trendlines since bull market ended.

Right now we are in the green channel down. Relief if we break out up or max pain if we break down. Part of me wishes we could break down because we would probably get a good strong bounce off the 4k range. But following today's bull div we will probably edge up out of the channel and resolve our most recent long pole by reaching 7,040.

Note

BTC price action yesterday showed an important lesson. THAT is why you never assume the bull divergence is cancelled until the candle closes. We were way below yesterday's open and then our daily candle turned green. Trade still active.

Note

Bull div has not yet been cancelled.

Note

more good news for btc. i missed it yesterday we went to the zoo but we closed a 2 part bull div on macd histogram WEEKLY timeframe. Arguably not as reliable as macd or rsi bull divs but still big:

that and the 2 part RSI bull div from a few days ago on daily (+ macd bull div on daily)

shows good signs for BTC

Trade closed manually

CLOSE @ 6753

Point and Figure i.imgur.com/r5L70zI.png We have some major consolidation going on here, with very few long poles and frequent reversals over the last few weeks.

PnF Long term, a pullback to $4,499 would complete unresolved long pole dating back about 9 months ago and is our next likely long-term target. But after our recent 2-part bull div (big deal! hasnt happened since 2014!) I think we should have enough upward momentum to not see <5k too soon. First we need to retest resistance levels. Strongest resistance levels are described in my last paragraph.

PnF Short term, we have an unresolved long pole of 16 O's from 6/10, a move above 7,040 would resolve 50% of the pole. Fun fact, we have had 168 long poles in the last 9 months and every single one of the 168 long poles have had 50% resolution except this one from 6/10. 1.5 year of PnF here: i.imgur.com/AuSFbNz.png

Daily Reverse Head and Shoulders

We have a clear H&S pattern making its decision soon here. We have formed the right shoulder and come up to the neckline but have not yet broken the neckline. We are looking for a clear break of 6845, especially a daily close above it. This would be very bullish. Until this happens, this is a short opportunity.

4 Hour Bear Div (RSI)

This is unconfirmed and will not confirm for a whomping 3 and a half hours. But given that we touch touched down on top of volume profile node both on weekly and daily timescale, and we are risking a failure off daily H&S break. A confirmation of the 4 hour bear div would be a short opportunity.

So to summarize: Big crossroads this week. Opportunity is on the shorters side as they can set stop loss at break of daily H&S neckline. Personally I think we will break neckline, but that doesn't stop the fact that R:R opportunity is on shorters side at this moment.

autemox

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