Short

BTCYSD - Wyckoff Theory

Updated

So here are my thoughts based on discussions with good friends (Who are hard to find in this industry.)

If the full Wyckoff accumulation is to play out, this is where I think we are in the cycle, my idea has a different timeline to my friends and I don't see very many people looking at this scenario, yes we see many people talking of 4k, but do they know why and do they know the possibilities they can take advantage of should it happen?

The question remains, is this the trading range? Or are we yet to see it?

I have placed some diagonal (arbitrary) trendlines, as I believe they are valid and if we find long-term support at the 300ema and subsequently push to the top of the channel, it would invalidate my Wyckoff timeline.

For reference: On a shorter timeline, with an open and close of the daily, under the 200, I expect a test of the 300.

Note

PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC.

Note

Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. He is considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott, and Merrill. At age 15 he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage, then he became the head of his own firm while still in his 20s. He also founded and for nearly two decades wrote and edited “The Magazine of Wall Street,” which at one point had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets and an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles, and techniques of trading methodology, money management, and mental discipline.

Mr. Wyckoff saw retail investors getting fleeced repeatedly, and dedicated himself to instructing the public about “the real rules of the game” as played by the large interests, or “smart money,” behind the scenes. In the 1930s he founded a school, which later became the Stock Market Institute. The school's central offering was a course integrating the concepts that Wyckoff had learned about how to identify large operators' accumulation and distribution of stock, and how to take positions in harmony with these big players. His time-tested insights are as valid today as when they were first articulated.

Note

Analyses of Trading Ranges
One objective of the Wyckoff method is to improve market timing when establishing a position in anticipation of a coming move where a favorable reward/risk ratio exists. Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR. In both accumulation and distribution TRs, the Composite Man is actively buying and selling, the distinction being that in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold, while in distribution the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR.

jackdavidpiney

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