Short

BTCUSD short to 22-2400 then bull to 3000

Updated

When we look at daily chart its clear that we are in a couple of triangles and testing to break out of the main downwards trend with the various dips we've had down to test past tops as new support relatively close to Fib Rets of the big dip from 3000 to 2000.

That has now formed a wave pattern at the daily scale which very likely could go south right now-ish (today) and continue a down trend until reversed by the extension of past bottoms as support eventually leading to a wave up hopefully to test 3000.

In the last day we've tested to break out from 2700 twice and it didn't work out.

MACD daily shows it really want's and needs to cool off and be pulled back home towards zero, so lots of investors will be nervous. However RSI so everyone must be waiting - will we break out right now and jump over the current resistance?

I highly doubt that - there's not enough momentum and we need to go south in order to be full of opportunist bulls that wants to pick up down there and get some momentum up, so here's a short opportunity. We need to wait until its confirmed by seeing some pulldown from the current Fib Ret strange attractor / support from past tops at the band 2700-2660, so that means a little south of the trailing support line.

We may go as deep as 2200 but there is also strong support at 2400 so keep an eye on 2400 for profit and rebounce.

If I'm wrong then there's the long opportunity AFTER we break out and are on the other side at 2715-2720 though I highly doubt that will happen.

I had a 50% exit from my last trade at 2700 and decided to exit entirely when I saw these new developments. Waiting to get back in the market with a short but let's see as the deal gets confirmed.

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The setup will be confirmed over the next hours. We see lower tops on 1m, 5m, 30m charts. The confirmation for me is once we break south of the lower triangle leg from past bottoms which is at 2660-2670 and has been pierced multiple times, each time with a rebounce with lower top than past.

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The danger here is that its a triangle and RSI is at about 50. So the tug of war demand/supply can pull both ways. That said, the wave pattern, the 1d MACD and the lack of momentum in the last sprints up (lower tops) says we need to pulldown and then have enough buyers that are bullish enough to bounce up and beyond 2700 to reach for the sky at 3000 :-)

We may need a very negative MACD on 1 day basis which is why 2200 could be where we need to go.

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15m chart something harmonic and bearish

... so anyone trying to make it into a reversed head and shoulders will be disappointed.

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Even if there are pumpers and opportunists trying to push it up the trend is still down. Careful.

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pop

... will be a little jump back up and then down

Trade active

I've opened my position. I was a sneak and did it a little early at 2675 but hey, it kinda was obvious what was going on.

Looking out at the next hours or day(s) we should experience some headwind at 2632, 2520 until we maybe arrive at 2400. Remember, trading is a probability play trying to predict price movements based on the dynamics of past movements combined with the expectations of the future.

I've put my stop at 2710 so far with a R/R of only 1.7 down to 2632 so thats worst case. I can live with that. I do want to see R/R of 3 or above which is what we have on the bigger setup if all works out, so my target is still down at 2520 and 2400.

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Update on pricing war with latest trend lines.

-- so this trade is still risky.

Should we crash down through the sliding support line that forms part of the triangle it might bounce back up hard from 2620.

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My stop loss kicked in while I was at the beach and though I got a ping about it I couldn't re-enter the market because I don't have all my indicators on my phone... So I left it like that and slept on it - did the trade go wrong?

Today I spent the day with kids, running, brunch, beach and now back at the desk. I re-did my trend lines, RSI, MACD, EMA and fundamentals which is what I'm trading on at the 1hr. I have a loss to catch up on now since I'm 3:1 leveraged (from the stop loss).

So, first: needing some adrenaline I'm 5 min trading. Swing low, swing high. Just did a short to catch this:

Second, I will post my new updated trends - I was too early on this bigger picture trade setup - not precise enough with the trends...

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oh... that was good timing...

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Yeah - so the updated trade chart is coming... I was just at the beach and finally got this app on the iPhone, works pretty well, ordered an icecream while swing trading on the 5 min chart :D hahah

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Lower low on the 30m and plenty of space on RSI and MACD to pull down ... no support in sight until 2480ish from back some days

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Redlines above are Fib Ret supports overlaying with real support from past

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Here you go:

1) MACD / RSI has shown over some days that folks believe BTCUSD to be a bit too hot and thus are taking home some profit probably they gained from the 3000 rally - which is where the Fibonacci Retracements / Extensions come into play (they'll sell at specific strange attractor prices outlined with horizontal lines)

2) There's plenty of space to correct BTC down on MACD and RSI

3) Past correction down and subsequent recovery looks like a wave

4) A triangle formed with the last correction down and trend up versus the top at 3000 ... triangles can break both ways, up and down, so this only showed that something big was about to happen

5) With fundamentals plus TA indicators I believe that to be a short. There's just not enough momentum to try and reach for 3000 yet. We have to cool down before another round of FOMO can kick in

6) There will be another round of FOMO kicking in as India starts to trade in BTC and Russia as well. China will be regulating as well.

So - game plan: short until 1h + 1d shows reversal, probably down to 2100 but follow stops at red horizontal lines. Maybe take home some profit along the way. That said I put my bouncers at all the Fib Ret's to remind me of times to be careful. This is a probibility game.

One scenario is just endless fall. Another is Elliott wave zig zagging down. I will update with that as we see it happen.

Once we see reversal from the true bottom - which we will - then its about rushing to buy more coins and go all in for a ride up. That'll be fun. As high or high as 3000.

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Ah - forgot: EMA was broken through on 1day chart with a big red candle. That's gonna hurt a lot. Short short short!

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ABCD is a very possible short term play:

But - be careful!

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Do NOT go long just because 1min EMA pops ... its not a validated signal in the bigger picture

.. see next chart in a moment

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We are far from cutting through EMA even though theres ample space on MACD and RSI. Meaning, pull back can come while we try to cut through and then its gonna go aux aux auv. So in my opinion, this is a trade that's not worth it.

Know when to say no thanks.

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However, if you're not on the bigger picture short yet, the moment we are trying to cut through on 5min and fail, thats when you short

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I took home some profit down at 2480 and am now waiting for a good deal to short again back up at 2540

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Update this morning here from Switzerland: its another beautiful day, I'm having coffee on the terrace and the birds are singing :D

I re-checked the daily chart and found that we've seen a quasi Elliott day to day wave before when correcting. This makes sense as most traders on BTCUSD will be short term swing traders, scalpers and robot-scalpers, so the market psychology will be: "OMG OMG its so cheap, looooong!!!... and then the day after: OMG OMG I made 5-8% x3 leveraged thats +20%, shoooooort!!!" so we will see zigzag from that.

So here's what I'm expecting with main Fib Rets as support and resistance as we've just seen it happen at 2480. Beautiful. I love it and you'll love it too.

Short opportunity at 2600, confirmed when bouncing down on 30m / 1h.

Trade closed: target reached

I closed out my position from 2700 by limit in my sleep as we hit 2420, so congrats to those who followed the short, nice little profit for a vacation. Its still not certain we will go as deep as 2200 as you see the strong support from the Fib Ret plus past tops keeping us rebouncing from 2400 - so many investors may feel that BTCUSD is correctly priced for a rebounce at 2400.

The tug of demand supply war is ongoing at 2440 - 2380. Against a short I just spotted that we are going sideways now, so Elliott wave no more.

We've got four green candles on 30min chart and MACD reversing from negative while RSI has plenty of gas at 50, so there's something pointing up.

However, before this is confirmed I want to see ichimoku clouds and EMA being pierced on 15-30min. Be ready to close and anyway - TARGET REACHED :D ... but hey, if it's going south, I'm shorting with it.

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Lets see... I'm kinda expecting the last harmonic shape to pull down ..

still some room for the left wing to form upwards.

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....aaaaand we are about to say hello to 2250. Now I expect to be pulled up. But of course there's room for further pullback.

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Oh please ... silly robots and crazy bulls... let go. BTCUSD -- she needs to correct down. Let it go.

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Though I closed this trade out because I reached my target / Risk/Reward and am disciplined that way... there's still swing trading opportunity available.

My recommendation is to have CM's EMA (CM Guppy) + Ichimoku cloud + MACD and RSI and then look at 15 min chart once you're up in the highs or down in the lows to enter.

Be careful to overlay 1hr, 30min that we are either in general up or down trend and then time your trade with 15min, 5min and 1min on the top of 15min swings if shorting, or vice versa.

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Red circle prob where I'll re-enter but lets wait and see, might be too low on 30min and 1hr... lets see

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1hr chart confirms that MACD, RSI and price action will be reasonable to short at the circle for me:

... but lets see in some hours. I'm long without margin until then.

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and don't be fooled by a small correction down. Zoom in to see the price action and zoom out to see how high it could go (ie. my thoughts on the circle above). Its prob gonna swing up.

high risk game.

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I will keep this position open just a little while longer :D

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Yep - we went down to touch the bottom of the triangle which is where I exited all positions and waited .. then I did some swing / scalping trades that was fun but a bit too intense and then I left again. Waiting until we broke out of the down channel we've been in and that just happened.

So now the final part of this trade has begun - reaching back up, through some zig zag to touch at least 3000. If we don't touch 3000 we will be in a 1 day bearish pattern and that would be a pity. So lets touch 3000.

bernino

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