Bitcoin SMA patterns on Weekly
A Few Things to note on this Weeks WEEKLY #Bitcoin Chart
First thing is the RED Spinning Top candle - This points towards indecision, uncertainty and as it closed Red, in the Bears favour.
We have Data coming in this week about Jobs and incomes in the USA, that could move markets but maybe not a huge amount.
Simply put, We are waiting, just hanging around and now that PA has returned back to where it should have been before the LUNA, FTX Etc Crashes, PA needs to just "Catch its breath"
September can be "Bloody" but we may already have done that. PA is on strong Support
Longer Term, Look at those SMA's 100 (Blue) on top of the 200 ( Yellow) with the 50 ( red) Below, all converging to an apex anytime from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 if they maintain Current paths.
That alone, may mean nothing But if we look back to 2015 / 2016 (Image) we see the similarity to what maybe playing out now.
* 245 days from when 50SMA(Red) went under the 100 (Blue) to when it touched the 200SMA( Yellow)
** 413 days the 50SMA (Red) was under the 100 (Blue)
*** The 50 then stayed above the 100 for 1001 days
* 295 days the 50 was under the 100 again
*** The 50 then stayed above the 100 for another 1001 days, exactly the same as before
And Currently -
* 154 days from the when the 50 went under the 100 BUT this Time we had the LUNA, FTX and other major influences trying to destroy the Averages and take PA down. This Took the 50SMA Under the 200SMA for the first time in its history
However, as we can see from the projected Paths of These SMA's, the 50 could cross back over the 100, as before, with in the 413 days but it most likely to do so in early Jan 2024. In fact, all 3 could cross at the same Time, A Super Golden Cross
But, a Bite of reality here comes in the shape of the MACD (Image) Which is still Bearish and above 0 line, so has room to fall. RSI is already below.
SMA's are made of the averages of PA movements.
If MACD is pointing towards the possibility of Ranging, Dipping in the coming Weeks, this Will destroy the idea above about the MA's Crossing Bullish
So, what else can help us here ?
The MFI is Very OVERSOLD on a daily chart, the Selling pressure maybe exhausted but on a Weekly chart, the MFI is around Neutral but Dropping but the daily shows this maybe coming to an end.
The DMI offers more ideas -
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2jX1jvuA/The ADX ( Yellow) is continuing to show the weakening of Trend, which has been bearish. Possibly leading to an upcoming Bullish trend. POSSIBLY
The DI - (Red) has been dropping after a not very large rise and the DI + has stopped Dropping and is levelling out just below the 20 line. When it crosses that line above, Thats Bullish.
My conclusion is Simply that while we need to be cautious, we maybe about to see a change of Trend take place. But that would go against the traditional "Bloody September" - its a 50 / 50, either way.
Which leads us right back to the Candle that just Closed.
A Spinning Top / Doji - indecision - Choices - Direction to be decided
Bitcoin - Keeping us on our Toes
Be even more cautious this week
First thing is the RED Spinning Top candle - This points towards indecision, uncertainty and as it closed Red, in the Bears favour.
We have Data coming in this week about Jobs and incomes in the USA, that could move markets but maybe not a huge amount.
Simply put, We are waiting, just hanging around and now that PA has returned back to where it should have been before the LUNA, FTX Etc Crashes, PA needs to just "Catch its breath"
September can be "Bloody" but we may already have done that. PA is on strong Support
Longer Term, Look at those SMA's 100 (Blue) on top of the 200 ( Yellow) with the 50 ( red) Below, all converging to an apex anytime from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 if they maintain Current paths.
That alone, may mean nothing But if we look back to 2015 / 2016 (Image) we see the similarity to what maybe playing out now.
* 245 days from when 50SMA(Red) went under the 100 (Blue) to when it touched the 200SMA( Yellow)
** 413 days the 50SMA (Red) was under the 100 (Blue)
*** The 50 then stayed above the 100 for 1001 days
* 295 days the 50 was under the 100 again
*** The 50 then stayed above the 100 for another 1001 days, exactly the same as before
And Currently -
* 154 days from the when the 50 went under the 100 BUT this Time we had the LUNA, FTX and other major influences trying to destroy the Averages and take PA down. This Took the 50SMA Under the 200SMA for the first time in its history
However, as we can see from the projected Paths of These SMA's, the 50 could cross back over the 100, as before, with in the 413 days but it most likely to do so in early Jan 2024. In fact, all 3 could cross at the same Time, A Super Golden Cross
But, a Bite of reality here comes in the shape of the MACD (Image) Which is still Bearish and above 0 line, so has room to fall. RSI is already below.
SMA's are made of the averages of PA movements.
If MACD is pointing towards the possibility of Ranging, Dipping in the coming Weeks, this Will destroy the idea above about the MA's Crossing Bullish
So, what else can help us here ?
The MFI is Very OVERSOLD on a daily chart, the Selling pressure maybe exhausted but on a Weekly chart, the MFI is around Neutral but Dropping but the daily shows this maybe coming to an end.
The DMI offers more ideas -
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2jX1jvuA/The ADX ( Yellow) is continuing to show the weakening of Trend, which has been bearish. Possibly leading to an upcoming Bullish trend. POSSIBLY
The DI - (Red) has been dropping after a not very large rise and the DI + has stopped Dropping and is levelling out just below the 20 line. When it crosses that line above, Thats Bullish.
My conclusion is Simply that while we need to be cautious, we maybe about to see a change of Trend take place. But that would go against the traditional "Bloody September" - its a 50 / 50, either way.
Which leads us right back to the Candle that just Closed.
A Spinning Top / Doji - indecision - Choices - Direction to be decided
Bitcoin - Keeping us on our Toes
Be even more cautious this week
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