the first price ratio analysis turned out to work very well. let's see if we will reach the next target of around 2000 btceusd this year. fundamentals are still very strong, although i have the impression that the hype around bitcoin is settling down. we are also heading towards christmas, so i bet that a few of bitcoin investors are converting back to fiat. i put 'long' as the market is very volatile, but mid-term is probably more appropriate. finally note that on this chart, the market seem to close positions at a risk/reward ratio around 2.
for details on the mathematical background of this kind of analysis see coinomist.com