BTC Mid Term TA - Bottom or down? (July - December) 2024
Updated
Bottom?
There is a 1D wick off the bottom of the mid term channel & a RSI bull divergence.
German govt is buying back sold BTC (according to Arkham Intelligence).
This could potentially signal a bottom.
Worst case scenario:
All that is left in terms of bearish sentiments & sell pressure are the Mt Gox coins & a tail end freak financial crisis that drags BTC down, temporarily nullifying BTC's 'safe haven narrative'. But, that is a worst case scenario.
Even if a global financial crisis occurs, a BTC bull run would only be delayed as institutional adoption increases (ETF inflows & HF/pension fund exposure) & the meme agricultural Benner cycle, predicting a 2026 global market cycle top, solidifies itself into market conscience.
The scarcity created by yet another BTC halving & continuing global inflation, means time is only of benefit to BTC, which will incrementally solidify the classical BTC narratives into public conscience, increasing demand for BTC. ('digital gold', 'save haven asset', 'inflation hedge', 'be your own bank', 'self custody your own money', 'insulate yourself from bank bail ins' etc).
What now?
I'm waiting for a few green weeklies for confirmation of a bull.
There is a 1D wick off the bottom of the mid term channel & a RSI bull divergence.
German govt is buying back sold BTC (according to Arkham Intelligence).
This could potentially signal a bottom.
Worst case scenario:
All that is left in terms of bearish sentiments & sell pressure are the Mt Gox coins & a tail end freak financial crisis that drags BTC down, temporarily nullifying BTC's 'safe haven narrative'. But, that is a worst case scenario.
Even if a global financial crisis occurs, a BTC bull run would only be delayed as institutional adoption increases (ETF inflows & HF/pension fund exposure) & the meme agricultural Benner cycle, predicting a 2026 global market cycle top, solidifies itself into market conscience.
The scarcity created by yet another BTC halving & continuing global inflation, means time is only of benefit to BTC, which will incrementally solidify the classical BTC narratives into public conscience, increasing demand for BTC. ('digital gold', 'save haven asset', 'inflation hedge', 'be your own bank', 'self custody your own money', 'insulate yourself from bank bail ins' etc).
What now?
I'm waiting for a few green weeklies for confirmation of a bull.
Note
Although the German govt bought back some of the BTC they had sold, they have resumed sales.One German MP called for the German government to hodl their BTC as reserves but it remains to be seen whether this is respected, at least partially, long term.
Until more clarity is provided (either sale history or govt comments) one can presume that sale pressure will resume.
Also, one other market factor that I omitted was the dispersion of FTX assets (in usd) to former customers (courts/FTX seek final approval of the wind-down on Oct 7 2024). The market impact seems to be a coin toss. Users could buy a more expensive BTC in preparation for a bull run. Conversely, increasing inflation and cost of living since the FTX hack, may result in users using the funds for non-crypto related living expenses or conservative savings/investments.
Regarding BTC short term TA, I am hoping to see a few consecutive green weeklies or at least a a few green days above the 200/50 EMA for confirmation of a bullish reversal.
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