Ladies and Gentlemen,
We had hope, the news gave us reassurance. And we forgot that we are the sheep and the Institutional Investors are wolves and always on the prowl. Our recent highs at 8200, were simply them trying to establish untouchable shorts. The news pumps about ETF's was what hyped us all up. So we got a delay and can potentially get more delays. Of course, at some point they will approve the ETF's which is when Bulls should re-enter this market. Or if you sitting on the sidelines going about your life and you see a BTC chart that does a massive capitulation move dropping 40% in one day and getting bought back up, with extremely high volume, get in. Until then you should probably stay out. If you can short then there will still be plenty of plays to be had IMO. I am quite bearish at this point, and to me it has been confirmed. At this point, I want to apologize for being quite bullish in my previous posts, I like many people drank the hype cool aide and am very sorry if I added to that and in turn you lost money.
Breaking below the neckline of our Inv H&S was absolutely paramount for the bulls to keep momentum.
We have tested 5700 lows two times already and its quite probable that the third time won't hold. (So, don't be too overly sure in it being a strong support at this point) The more its tested the weaker it becomes. I see this market has having a phase 1 bear market and a phase 2 bear market. The way things are looking and especially if we do break 5700 then we will be entering a phase 2 bear market. We held a slight chance at holding strong and ending phase 1 bear, but the institutions were too strong, and the news events didn't line up. Big players will need some time to get their schemes in order before they allow this thing to take off, because they always make money and us plebs are the ones who make them rich, just a fact of life. Gotta be smarter than the average bear.
First Option, Starting to enter phase II of the bearish market. We see this recent rally, not as a rally but actually as the corrective move of the previous 50% down leg. This would give us a massive bear flag if it is the corrective pattern of the down move and clearly gives us a measured move down to 4500. We have support at this level marked on the graph but more importantly it is where our logarithmic chart has its all time support line, 4400-4500.
Second Option, there is a possibility that 5700 holds and if it does I wouldn't expect large swings for a while, it would probably oscillate between a smaller range, possibly 5700 and 7000 and waiting for an ETF catalyst type event to kick start its engines.
Third Option and least likely, is that we are forming a large bear trap by breaking out of a bear flag, we find support somewhere and start a turn around in which case we will be making a higher low and then we will be looking for a higher high after that. I will say that I do like how the weekly RSI looks currently to support this argument.
Short term, we could see an oversold bounce soon. We did put in heavy volume for bottoming, some bullish divergence. I wouldn't expect any sustained bullish movement but maybe some vertical bounce to 6742 at the most. But really not worth the risk to play considering the market conditions.
We had hope, the news gave us reassurance. And we forgot that we are the sheep and the Institutional Investors are wolves and always on the prowl. Our recent highs at 8200, were simply them trying to establish untouchable shorts. The news pumps about ETF's was what hyped us all up. So we got a delay and can potentially get more delays. Of course, at some point they will approve the ETF's which is when Bulls should re-enter this market. Or if you sitting on the sidelines going about your life and you see a BTC chart that does a massive capitulation move dropping 40% in one day and getting bought back up, with extremely high volume, get in. Until then you should probably stay out. If you can short then there will still be plenty of plays to be had IMO. I am quite bearish at this point, and to me it has been confirmed. At this point, I want to apologize for being quite bullish in my previous posts, I like many people drank the hype cool aide and am very sorry if I added to that and in turn you lost money.
Breaking below the neckline of our Inv H&S was absolutely paramount for the bulls to keep momentum.
We have tested 5700 lows two times already and its quite probable that the third time won't hold. (So, don't be too overly sure in it being a strong support at this point) The more its tested the weaker it becomes. I see this market has having a phase 1 bear market and a phase 2 bear market. The way things are looking and especially if we do break 5700 then we will be entering a phase 2 bear market. We held a slight chance at holding strong and ending phase 1 bear, but the institutions were too strong, and the news events didn't line up. Big players will need some time to get their schemes in order before they allow this thing to take off, because they always make money and us plebs are the ones who make them rich, just a fact of life. Gotta be smarter than the average bear.
First Option, Starting to enter phase II of the bearish market. We see this recent rally, not as a rally but actually as the corrective move of the previous 50% down leg. This would give us a massive bear flag if it is the corrective pattern of the down move and clearly gives us a measured move down to 4500. We have support at this level marked on the graph but more importantly it is where our logarithmic chart has its all time support line, 4400-4500.
Second Option, there is a possibility that 5700 holds and if it does I wouldn't expect large swings for a while, it would probably oscillate between a smaller range, possibly 5700 and 7000 and waiting for an ETF catalyst type event to kick start its engines.
Third Option and least likely, is that we are forming a large bear trap by breaking out of a bear flag, we find support somewhere and start a turn around in which case we will be making a higher low and then we will be looking for a higher high after that. I will say that I do like how the weekly RSI looks currently to support this argument.
Short term, we could see an oversold bounce soon. We did put in heavy volume for bottoming, some bullish divergence. I wouldn't expect any sustained bullish movement but maybe some vertical bounce to 6742 at the most. But really not worth the risk to play considering the market conditions.
Note
If we get a good rally that holds us above the neckline tonight then I will be much less bearish. If we close daily candles below the neckline then bearish.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.