Lowest High and Bottom before reversal

Updated

The price will follow a parabolic curve with the lowest high on September 7 (in approximately 3 days) sitting on its axis of symmetry from which a reversal in direction (upwards) will begin somewhere between September 20 and October 10 (where the new bottom will be), before converting later into a wave-like growing signal with increased volatility, probably drawing 3 big identifiable corrective valleys with consecutive decreasing amplitude until, finally, moving into a more logarithmic and less volatile behavior after a couple of years.
Volatility on the overlapping red area is temporarily smaller.

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Lowest High should be somewhere between $7400 and $7800.

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Double top signalling reversal has started (similar to previous triangle double tops). This should be the first drop now, going up one more time before it starts falling again all the way down until the predicted bottom date range. If the second peak/top doesn't breach through $7400 until September 7 then we will have to take the lowest high from previous dates September 2 and September 4 ($7415 - $7430) instead, despite the bullish trend coming to an end only in the next couple of days, exactly when the new bearish trend should "officially" start.

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Given how much the price dropped already in such a short time, I'm starting to wonder if the peaks mentioned before, namely September 2 ($7430) and September 4 ($7415), were actually the double top formation, although disguised, that was expected to precede the price drop. They would certainly fit within the expected $7400 - $7800 range but the valley between them is too insignificant to even be considered a proper valley. Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours to be sure.

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September 7 is over and we're just witnessing the formation of a double bottom after the big price drop last September 5. This could indicate a price rebound, corroborating the expectation for an upwards momentum and that we're possibly headed to the formation of a double top, like mentioned before, of which this valley is part of.

If September 7 sits on the axis of symmetry, like proposed with this idea from the beginning, and given that the we had a peak on September 4 just to see it fall on September 5, we could expect the price the rise until September 9 (a 2 day interval, same as the September 5 to 7 fall) to form the second top then and start going back down again after September 10 (1 day after the rebound, same as from September 4 to 5).

If this is confirmed, then the Lowest High will indeed be defined by a double top formation between September 4 and September 10 with September 7, despite not being exactly the highest price, sitting right in its middle.

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Due to the huge sudden price drop verified last September 5, I estimate the coming second top to set not so high this time but rather between $6800 and $7000.

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High resistance between $6400 and $6500 couldn't be breached on different attempts during September 7 and 8 which didn't allow the price to rise as previously speculated which resulted in another price drop later on September 8. A new breach attempt was made on September 9 which, again, couldn't go beyond 6400s after a long tense couple of hours between bulls and bears and the price eventually dropped again.

At this time, like mentioned on September 6, I'm ready to take the lowest highs as $7430 and $7415 from last September 2 and 4 since a clearer second top, even if lower, failed to form so far, which supports the idea that the price will keep dropping (with some corrections of course) towards a bottom formation which could be expected sometime between September 19 and October 10, probably the earlier given the early drop witnessed so far.

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Finally we seem to have touched and maxed out the offer pool that has been lingering around the $6800's until now, like mentioned before although admittedly later than expected, and now the demand is starting to turn again to this new pool of players/buyers that are settling around the $4500 - $5500 range which I suspect might define our expected lowest bottom before reversal.

After that all the speculation around financial market moving into crypto might play a critical role in giving BTC a nice push to begin the coming upward momentum.

I'll assess and comment again in about 2 weeks, if there's no critical change in the meantime, so let's see how it plays out until then...

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For the faint-hearted: The market just re-tested breaching through the $6800 in the last half an hour, unsuccessfully, barely touching the price line. The newly formed valley defined by both breach attempts between September 22 and just now should clearly underline that a new smaller triangle is in the making. This would confirm we're on another ride down very soon (right side of the triangle), possibly our final ride, to find the bottom before attempting to breach this level again in a definite signal reversal.

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Despite all the bearish signs, corroborated by multiple bearish candle patterns, in this last week there was enough room to keep trading sideways instead of turning to the lower gap in the range of $4500 to $5500, like mentioned before. In the meantime there were another 2 attempts, one of which in the past hour, to breach the $6800 resistance level, but without success. Although I expected an earlier price drop since the market, despite trading on higher levels, continuously failed until now to breach above the first red triangle, I believe we should be very close to the big fall before definite reversal. Of course there is always a chance that the $6800 resistance is broken and in that case we should take the lower bottom from September 19, which still falls between the predicted timeframe. Nevertheless I stay strong on one more big fall to come as a confirmation of all the bearish signs so far and the lot-of-money to be made yet trading at the mentioned lower price range. Excited about the next couple of days.

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October 10 is long gone and, personal expectations aside, we did realize the lowest bottom within the predicted period, namely exactly on September 19 and on October 10, another strong signal date calculated with my algorithm didn't come out as a second bottom but marked instead the beginning of yet another descending trend which found a bottom so far one day later on October 11. If that trend were to be confirmed, then my initial theory that we would break out the triangle upwards, in the meantime, would have been wrong. Interestingly enough **today happened**, we broke the triangle rising almost to the top of the secondary ascending triangle before dropping back down and yet the question at this moment is: could 1) my initial theory of breaking the descending triangle upwards and later suspicion of 2) an upcoming big drop to satisfy a lower demand at around the $5000's both be true? Most signals, and my personal convictions, say yes. Today, coincidence or not, manipulation or not, there was a big rise in the price mostly provoked by Tether loosing its peg to the USD as most of you certainly read on the news. The thing is, it had lost it already 3 weeks ago and Tether moved millions during these last weeks and still no one reacted to it until now? No!! So far, everything seems to corroborate the expectations of my initial theory. But then what about this new big drop that I've been talking about? Well first all the big players on exchanges like Bitfinex and from stock markets are getting ready to deposit millions in fiat from tomorrow on throughout next week, maybe in anticipation of SEC declarations expected on October 26; And although most would expect this to be a bullish sign (of fresh money ready to be exchanged into crypto), these new whales aren't looking to buy at the current price point but would rather retest the lowest support levels (using fresh money also as short collateral in the meantime) where they can then buy confidently at a much cheaper price, knowing their investment is at a lower risk of dropping further; so this new money will certainly play a big part in bringing down the market price for their convenience and we can only ride along if we choose to. After that, well hell will probably break loose and with their support we can only expect the market value of crypto to spike through the roof and initiate the new uptrend that should be moving inside the secondary ascending triangle this time. So far I have calculated four new dates, namely one not so strong signal for October 18/19 and three strong signals on October 23, November 1 and November 28. What they mean I'm yet to analyse and find out.

falonso

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