BTC USD Second possible scenario and why you shouldn't trade yet

Updated

As discussed in my other chart; there are many traders that took a long position from the 7,300 price and are building up to be able to short. You can see by the lack of volume that not only are people waiting on the sides but many are holding this trade to find the ultimate point to tale profits and then use that to short. If they get the price they want to then they will most likely short the market when it reaches the 8,800 to 9,100 range. Most of these guys want the market down at 6,000 or blow before going long.

This really isn't a price range you want to trade at the moment as in my opinion we are headed south. Either way I think its safer to wait for a confirmation of a price either above that range or wait for a confirmation of the bottom of a range (see other chart). And when you do try trading the range make sure you use a tight stop loss.

Good luck, buon chance, buona fortuna!

Note

So that resistance at 8,800 of loads of people selling...? Didn't you ask yourself why people would be taking profits and selling now if the markets were headed up again? It's because they intend on using those profits they just made to short when the price is right. Also, a bunch of traders bought BTC at that price when they previously thought the market was headed up so they needed to release their capital to be ready to short.

All of these traders are now holding cash to determine where the market is going to go, with a higher than 50% chance of it heading back into the downtrend channel and continuing its descent.

Trading now is really not a bright idea until you get clear clarification and signals of where the market is headed... and I believe it to be down!

Please give this a like if you would like to see further updates of levels and forecasts.

Grazie, gracias y merci beaucoup!

Note

This is playing out perfectly and is now really close to reaching the optimal sell zone. It has slowly tapped into the resistance levels above where many have chipped away at the buys, taken profits and prepared short positions.

I see the majority of shorts happening between 9,200 - 9,400 range. Unless the bulls can push through it's going to resume its downtrend from there. I would advise being on the sidelines when we get to that level: the light blue dotted line in the chart :)

Have a great day!

Note

I still believe we have too many traders now sitting and waiting for the 9,200 - 9,400 region so we will probably have to head all of the way back up there before the sell off really happens. At that point there will be the opportunity for the bulls to take over the battle but I really don't see them winning the fight.

Note

So far spot on and time for an update.

We hit the blue resistance line however we never actually got to the 9,200 - 9,400 range! This worries me as I am nervous that there are a large number of bears that didn't take their short position. We are definitely headed to 8,400 region and then possibly following the trail lower but the waves may now be switched.

I will update on set ups and levels once there is further confirmation.

Note

There may be a nice bounce at the dark green down trend lined up with the neckline of the head and shoulders.
Check related idea to see a possible trading zone.
Drop a like... if you think this was lined out well :)

Trade closed: target reached

As proposed; there was a bounce at the trend line. We will have a little more sideways action here and then should resume our descent. I will be making an updated chart once we get below the trend line and I can have a clearer idea of possible time frames and targets.

bluesilver3

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.