Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis
Updated
Keeping it simple here.
1) 200 EMA: Trading below this keeps us in a downtrend until we close above it with volume and positive price action. Once we break above this EMA around $42,000 and turn this into support rather than resistance, we can then look for further confirmation of a true reversal instead of just an impulse movement.
2) 200 SMMA: Acting as support for the moment. Notice we bounced right off of it. Look for this to hold, but if we break below it and stay there, expect further downside.
3) Bollinger Bands: We're failing to mount any sort of a challenge right now after bouncing off the bottom band on the 23rd of May. If we can at least breakthrough the middle bollinger band, then I'd be way more confident in calling it a reversal back to the upside.
So what's the outlook here?
I expect very shaky and uneventful price action until we can satisfy the above discussed points. I try not to be a bear or bull but simply trade what I see on the charts and act accordingly. I'd be very careful about your choices at this point in either direction. My honest opinion is that if we can break above the 200 EMA, I expect to see temporary upside into the mid 40's and potential lower 50's before breaking back down for one more leg to complete this cycle. How low can we go? My analysis says $25,000 - $26,000 is a possible turnaround point, but it's hard to tell this far out. I see this idea playing out over the course of the next few weeks at the very least.
Stay cautious. Don't trade emotional. Stick to what you see on the charts. Always protect your investment.
Note
Major moving averages update:
50/100 EMA crossing downwards and 20/200 EMA getting closer every day. Not a good sign for the next few weeks of bitcoin movements, at least. Trade safe.
Note
200 Simple Moving Average: This has been a historically accurate indicator over the last 4 cycles of bitcoin price movements. When we dropped and confirmed below this moving average, this marked the start of a bear market. Could this be the final sign that we are officially in a bear market or is it a fluke? History is only one indicator, but all signs point to continued downwards pressure at the moment. Trade safe everyone!
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