Whereever BTC will find its bottom now, at 20K or even somewhat lower at 18K, we can expect a significant rebound of price action over the course of 12 -16 weeks. Size and dynamics of that rebound may set the stage for further development, mid term (eoY) and beyond. I think it is relevant to understand if the actual BTC halving cycle established a new trend channel of continued growth or if BTC will resume its former growth trend established around 2015/16 during the last halving cycle. The latter would be unique in BTC history. So far all BTC halving cycles managed to generate increasing linear trends of growth. So we observe continued exponential growth until now.
Within the days to come, a significant and lasting break of the lower boundary of a hypothetic new trend channel established in late 2020 would clarify the cause. If that rebound will be confined to lower levels than anything above 28K, further contraction to price ranges of 11K - 13k is to be expected in mid term (epY and beyond).