BTC - finding support here, or headed lower
Updated
BTC's 18 month uptrend started w/ the inverted hammer on 1/9/23. Green AVWAPs tied to that candle have been great buying opportunities since.
Including now we have 7 full rollovers in the composite index, followed by 5-22% drawdowns. 5 of these drawdown far enough to test one of those AVWAPs. Price is currently at the 0.786 retrace from the last test of the AVWAP and positive momentum crossover to the most recent high. A close below this level implies continuation to 1.272 to 1.618 (55.9-58.7).
BTCUSD
Including now we have 7 full rollovers in the composite index, followed by 5-22% drawdowns. 5 of these drawdown far enough to test one of those AVWAPs. Price is currently at the 0.786 retrace from the last test of the AVWAP and positive momentum crossover to the most recent high. A close below this level implies continuation to 1.272 to 1.618 (55.9-58.7).
BTCUSD Note
BTC's 18-month uptrend started with the inverted hammer on 1/9/23. Green AVWAPs tied to that candle have been great buying opportunities since.The price is currently at the 0.786 retrace from the last test of the AVWAP and positive momentum crossover to the most recent high. A close below this level implies continuation to 1.272 to 1.618 (55.9-58.7).
A full rollover in the composite index occurs when the fast RSI momentum line crosses below the slow RSI momentum line, followed by the composite index line crossing below both. Note how responsive the divergences in the composite index line are.
Including now, we have 7 full rollovers in the composite index, followed by 5-22% drawdowns. 5 of the prior 6 of these have drawn down far enough to test one of the green AVWAPs. 4 out of 6 of the prior downward composite index crossovers were followed by drawdowns that ranged from approximately 17-22% and took about 40-50 days to play out, while 2 ranged from approximately 4-12% and took 7-9 days to play out. The current drawdown is at 8.5% and has taken place over 14 days. Reaching the 1.272 level would equate to a 15.5% drawdown, and the 1.618 level would be roughly 20%.
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