Hey followers,
Crazy times, huh? I was just looking at the Bitcoin chart, and I don’t see any other week in history with a $20K retracement, absolutely wild.
I haven’t done much BTC analysis lately, but the last time I did, I warned: “Money on your screen won’t feed your family—turn it into real gains.” Well, here we are. Once again, two simple criteria have proven their ability to predict profit-taking areas and potential corrections:
📌 Channel projection
📌 Equal waves
Now, with this massive sell-off, it’s time to hunt for strong support zones. Percent-wise, the weekly drop might not be extreme, but in raw dollar terms, it should be the biggest in BTC’s history. So, where could this madness stop?
For me, the 48K–$66K range is where things get interesting. Somewhere inside this zone, I expect a reaction, and I’ll be looking for possible reversal setups. Let’s break down the key reasons why this area is a potential landing spot:
🔹 1. Previous yearly highs acting as support
In 2021, Bitcoin saw two major sell-offs in the $60K–$70K range. Then, in early 2024, the same zone acted as a strong resistance before BTC finally broke through.
When a zone like this is left untested, it often pulls the price back like a magnet for a retest, a classic case of liquidity seeking validation. That’s why this area forms the foundation of my support box.
🔹 2. Short-term trendline alignment
This trendline, drawn from wick touches, is valid because the third touch happens higher than the peak between the first and second touches, comes to retest the trendline from higher high levels (HH). Even though it’s short-term, it perfectly aligns with the horizontal support zone, adding extra confluence.
🔹 3. 50% retracement from the all-time high
From my past crypto analysis, BTC loves its 50% retracements from all-time highs—like clockwork. And guess what? This level perfectly overlaps with the marked support zone, reinforcing its strength.
🔹 4. The psychological $50K level
Round numbers play a big role in trading, humans love them. Back in August 2024, $50K acted as a key level. I even mentioned on a local radio station earlier that year that buying the dip around here could be a smart move… and, well, lucky me, it worked out. :)
So once again, this simple but effective criterion strengthens the case for this area.
Putting all these criteria together:
Summary:
The more confluences in a single price zone, the stronger it is. Sure, we could add some fake trendlines or EMAs, but for me, price action and human psychology tell the real story. Think of it like tracking footprints in the snow, BTC leaves clues, and it’s our job to follow them.
- For long-term believers, this zone could be a solid place to accumulate more BTC.
- For those looking to enter Bitcoin for the first time, this is the area to watch.
What do you think? Are we heading lower, or...
🚀If you like the analysis, hit the boost as well🚀
Cheers,
Vaido
---------------------------
📢 Want more in-depth technical analysis?
I post similar insights on my Substack channel, where I break down technically strong stocks worldwide by saving you time and helping grow your portfolio. I do the technical analysis, so you don’t have to!
🔗 Find the link in my BIO (under the Website icon), or if you're using mobile just scroll down to my signature to choose your preferred language.
See you there!
Crazy times, huh? I was just looking at the Bitcoin chart, and I don’t see any other week in history with a $20K retracement, absolutely wild.
I haven’t done much BTC analysis lately, but the last time I did, I warned: “Money on your screen won’t feed your family—turn it into real gains.” Well, here we are. Once again, two simple criteria have proven their ability to predict profit-taking areas and potential corrections:
📌 Channel projection
📌 Equal waves
Now, with this massive sell-off, it’s time to hunt for strong support zones. Percent-wise, the weekly drop might not be extreme, but in raw dollar terms, it should be the biggest in BTC’s history. So, where could this madness stop?
For me, the 48K–$66K range is where things get interesting. Somewhere inside this zone, I expect a reaction, and I’ll be looking for possible reversal setups. Let’s break down the key reasons why this area is a potential landing spot:
🔹 1. Previous yearly highs acting as support
In 2021, Bitcoin saw two major sell-offs in the $60K–$70K range. Then, in early 2024, the same zone acted as a strong resistance before BTC finally broke through.
When a zone like this is left untested, it often pulls the price back like a magnet for a retest, a classic case of liquidity seeking validation. That’s why this area forms the foundation of my support box.
🔹 2. Short-term trendline alignment
This trendline, drawn from wick touches, is valid because the third touch happens higher than the peak between the first and second touches, comes to retest the trendline from higher high levels (HH). Even though it’s short-term, it perfectly aligns with the horizontal support zone, adding extra confluence.
🔹 3. 50% retracement from the all-time high
From my past crypto analysis, BTC loves its 50% retracements from all-time highs—like clockwork. And guess what? This level perfectly overlaps with the marked support zone, reinforcing its strength.
🔹 4. The psychological $50K level
Round numbers play a big role in trading, humans love them. Back in August 2024, $50K acted as a key level. I even mentioned on a local radio station earlier that year that buying the dip around here could be a smart move… and, well, lucky me, it worked out. :)
So once again, this simple but effective criterion strengthens the case for this area.
Putting all these criteria together:
Summary:
The more confluences in a single price zone, the stronger it is. Sure, we could add some fake trendlines or EMAs, but for me, price action and human psychology tell the real story. Think of it like tracking footprints in the snow, BTC leaves clues, and it’s our job to follow them.
- For long-term believers, this zone could be a solid place to accumulate more BTC.
- For those looking to enter Bitcoin for the first time, this is the area to watch.
What do you think? Are we heading lower, or...
🚀If you like the analysis, hit the boost as well🚀
Cheers,
Vaido
---------------------------
📢 Want more in-depth technical analysis?
I post similar insights on my Substack channel, where I break down technically strong stocks worldwide by saving you time and helping grow your portfolio. I do the technical analysis, so you don’t have to!
🔗 Find the link in my BIO (under the Website icon), or if you're using mobile just scroll down to my signature to choose your preferred language.
See you there!
🔍I do the technicals - so You don’t have to.
📊Follow my research on Substack:
👉vaido.substack.com/ - ENG
👉vaidoveek.substack.com/ - EST
🚀 Actionable market analysis, ideas, and education
📊Follow my research on Substack:
👉vaido.substack.com/ - ENG
👉vaidoveek.substack.com/ - EST
🚀 Actionable market analysis, ideas, and education
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔍I do the technicals - so You don’t have to.
📊Follow my research on Substack:
👉vaido.substack.com/ - ENG
👉vaidoveek.substack.com/ - EST
🚀 Actionable market analysis, ideas, and education
📊Follow my research on Substack:
👉vaido.substack.com/ - ENG
👉vaidoveek.substack.com/ - EST
🚀 Actionable market analysis, ideas, and education
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.