BitcoinShort
Bitcoin BTCUSD Unravelling
Updated
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Pattern Deteriorates Further
Ran a little ragged by late Friday night, the comment at bottom left was sent for upload but never went through the
system - slack service over holiday period, still very frustrating to lose a good short overnight, apologies.
Last night Bitcoin was running into the apex of a little triangle which was giving off conflicting shorter term signals, breaking
lower on lack of interest from far East (just as in US before it and London before that as Bitcoin skipped across time-zones).
All it's done since is give off negative signals and this is due to be a poor weekend ahead for bulls left standing in the way
here...a bear flag under recent structure tells us the little rally we have seen early in London is not to be trusted. Once
minor support at 12990 gives way Bitcoin is likely to fall away in stages back to 12617- 12490 and then, after a bounce, back
to 11165. And should 11090 fail to hold at any point over the weekend it will tip Bitcoin further into very negative territory,
forcing price lower still, to 10486 to start with and then, once this fails back to 8342.
Ran a little ragged by late Friday night, the comment at bottom left was sent for upload but never went through the
system - slack service over holiday period, still very frustrating to lose a good short overnight, apologies.
Last night Bitcoin was running into the apex of a little triangle which was giving off conflicting shorter term signals, breaking
lower on lack of interest from far East (just as in US before it and London before that as Bitcoin skipped across time-zones).
All it's done since is give off negative signals and this is due to be a poor weekend ahead for bulls left standing in the way
here...a bear flag under recent structure tells us the little rally we have seen early in London is not to be trusted. Once
minor support at 12990 gives way Bitcoin is likely to fall away in stages back to 12617- 12490 and then, after a bounce, back
to 11165. And should 11090 fail to hold at any point over the weekend it will tip Bitcoin further into very negative territory,
forcing price lower still, to 10486 to start with and then, once this fails back to 8342.
Note
Update Look at Bitcoin in chaotic conditions...the lines, especially the 12617 line which had precise stikes on either side...and is weeak below here...looking for a test of the lowe big parallel before selling pressure releases...a brave buy on a test of this parallel, for a relief rally attempt with a stop under the line by 100 points or so...providing we see some change in behaviour here (not big reds and no sign of a bounce - if it is going to stop here it will bounce quite well, and come back close to the low again within seconds/a minute at most (compared to one to 3 hours with a 'normal' 'stock') and give a clue that it's turning - otherwise stand back. This bloodbath is creating an opportunity. That big Fibo at .618 really did mean something, didn't it ?Note
If you bought off the lower parallel stick a stop right under the line...should rally but will come off again later most likely...Note
This long is not doing great...raise stop to 12190 for small gain if hit and run it to 12480 if touched...it has to come back again one more time...football break - back soonNote
Wow...Out! Note
Bitcoin: BTCUSDThe big lower parallel came to Bitcoin's rescue and gave as good reason as any to close out shorts from here...but it
didn't quite hit the line perfectly, which was then lying at 12028 - the low of the day was in fact 12050 - so quite close,
22 out, but no cigar. If you managed to get out and switch long close to the lows you therefore did really well. We were
then looking to switch long to 12480 for about 400 points - but should have stayed much longer (in hindsight) as Bitcoin
went on to rise by another 700 points or so. Not good. But OK in tricky conditions.
Right now Bitcoin is busy hammering out a little flag with 2 strikes on the lower line. If this can hold up and not revisit
the lower parallel now Bitcoin will stand a chance of another temporary escape - but to do so it will have to break above
12987. Only then would it worth risking a long for 500 points to 13480.
On the downside the lower small parallel of the putative flag formation has to hold up at all costs now to stop Bitcoin
falling away to 12301 -12255. If this then fails it will fall at least back to the low at 12050 and more likely lower still to
11923 and to the big lowest parallel at any selling extreme.
At all costs the lower big parallel must continue to hold this decline or it will go into a bigger tailspin. And should it fail
and then 11090 fail to hold at any point over the weekend it will tip Bitcoin further into very negative territory, forcing
price lower still, to 10486 to start with and then, once this fails back to 8342.
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