Long

BTC elliot wave count

Updated

ok this is more of an update to my last count which i now think is off, the wxyxz on the minor 1 caught me out, so i now think we are on wave 3 of 5 - 41-43k

Comment

ok ive picked through it, that one is also wrong, im not gonna do another update cos the top price is about the same anyway, its just the wave count was off, if you can be bothered to pick through it, below , hopefully no more updates now =0)

Comment

the abc at the bottom there should be wxy, i forgot to change it

Comment

both of them

Comment

ok so i think it plays out like this, so will be an A-B-C corrective move that dumps to a lower low from about 40k

Comment

Maybe this next

Comment

call it 22950

Comment

Since it hit that target faster than expected, im gonna say it was just abc of the Y wave and it goes up there somewhere now

Comment

dropped below that price so looks like the abc idea was the right one

Comment

just looked at this again now im awake i think its gonna be another one of those wxyxz and then a decent move up for the top of 3

Comment

so lets say 22810 for starters and see if we get anything there

Comment

could be in already if we go there

Comment

i think it has to go deeper cos if its a big abc we need a deeper c and if it wxyxz we need a z that goes deeper than the y

Comment

occams razor and all that..

Comment

same outcome either way so..

Comment

soif this count is correct , we cant go any higher than there, cos that the top/or bottom in this case of the 1 wave

Comment

Might get that if we're lucky

Comment

so if it dont fake out, and hit the bottom line now we
must be this

Comment

should be somewhere in that box depending where people have put their fibs on that 1 wave, i would imagine most people will put it on the top of the x wave, so the higher target migt be on

Comment

this should help

Comment

price is already below far left shoulder,

Comment

so i think we could get something like that for the rest of the count

Comment

could maybe get 34500 here at a push

Comment

30 is more likely tho

Comment

tightened this chart up

Comment

i believe this is the macro count, so you probably want to have an escape plan in order after 40k, i would expect 5k as a minimum retrace, probably much lower, because of over leveraged positions causing margin cascades on some exchanges. the impulse bottom was 1 cent so in theory we can go to 1.1 cents and not break the wave, i think alts could possibly just do their own thing from here on out, regardless of bitcoin as they appear to be on entirely different long term cycles

Comment

the reason im bearish after 40k - look at the top btc made and compare to all other btc tops, if you are keen eyed you will notice that the double top is orientated the opposite way to all other btc tops, btc tops dont make a high, then a higher high then dump, they're always the other way around - high lower high dump, the only time you see this kind of price action is on the 1 and 3 wave tops- hence this is not the top, and since the long term count fits a macro 1 wave this then points to a deep correction

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.