I expect BTCUSD to find resistance at 3800 and renew the decent to an eventual bottom below $3000. However throughout the bear market since the beginning of 2018 every time the price breaks above both the 30 and the 50 EMA on the 12 hour it makes a run for it.
The momentum with which it has reached these price levels creates the distinct possibility that we will break through resistance and postpone the bottoming process for weeks as we enter 2019.
I have tightened these averages on the 4 hour chart to provide a signal for such an event.
If we break through and see a run higher we could see the 30 EMA on the 12 hour become support as the bullish cross of the two averages signal a temporary reversal in the trend.
Inversely if we find resistance at $3800 and we cross back below the 30 and the 50 EMA on the 12 hour we will likely see BTCUSD return to $3000 and possibly lower.
Bearish signs to look for are a dropoff in volume as we test $3800 and a reversal on the stochastic RSI on the daily.
Note
The question will be answered in the next 4 hours most likely and there is no attenuation in volume at the moment.
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