BTC Neutral, minor pullback near 63k?

Updated

This idea is inspired by the growing number of limit sells occurring near the global ath. The last time there was such an order block region was back when we were at 40k after the drop from 52k, potentially suggesting an incoming correction.

Brief:
-No momentum div. uptrend likely to continue
-Large limit sells near 64k
-Hitting resistance at 61k from 1.618 fib, neckline of distribution pattern near march highs
-Support at 50k if corrects now, or 55k if corrects near 66k-70k
-Bars pattern possibly playing out again
-Wave 3 may not be complete since it is shorter than wave 1.
-Entry if weekly close under 60k, TP if entry started: 53k, 50k, 47k
- Large Whale holdings (>1k BTC) decreasing, but small-med. size whales accumulating

Since momentum is higher at wave 3 rather than wave 1, and the price has also followed higher highs, I believe we may be in an impulse trend rather than a corrective one as corrective waves end with a momentum divergence. Wave 3 may not even be complete given the lack of divergences, but if correction appears it may find support near 50k.

If weekly closes under 60k today, would recommend entering a short then, else wait for momentum divergence as we head toward 66k-70k. We could be seeing a repetition of bar patterns playing out many times considering the global ath distribution and the run-up to 50k from 28k played out similarly.

With whales taking profit near here, it is a bit concerning as we are on a resistance trendline. But I have confidence that in the grand scheme of things this is nothing to worry about as we are in an uptrend supported by entities other than retail.

Note

Could argue a bearish momentum. div going on from Oc.9 to Oct. 15.

Trade active

Entered a short at 61k jic. Same tp and sl mentioned on idea and chart

Note

Drop to 59.3k is normal, it is retesting the top of a parallel channel I forgot to include.

This parallel channel must be drawn from a non-log chart.
-The channel's upper trendline hits resistance from the highs of mid-june, late Aug to Sept. 7, and oct. 11.
-The lower trendline hits support from the lows of Jul 20th and the last week of Sept.
-Broke out on Oct. 15

Took some profit at 59.4k in case bulls take charge from here on out.

Note

I'd argue a continuous drop under the upper trendline of this parallel channel at or after the weekly close, to be a bit dangerous. (As of now it stands at 59.1k, increasing about 1k every week)
Funding fees are growing, so longs should be careful of getting liquidated.

Note

Opened close short position at 60.5k in case of a sudden price uptick.

Trade closed manually

Closed short position at 60.5k.

Note

Double bounce off of 59k and 60.8k in this short-term price movement looks promising for another run toward 63k. Might enter a long if 60.8k is retested toward 63k.

Note

Bearish div forming on the 5min.
Interesting to see how this divergence develops onto higher timeframes as we near the weekly close. Expect high volatility

Trade active

entered long at 61.5k, things looking bullish

Note

Aiming for tp near 63k. sl set tight in case of short term momentum decreasing as we approach the weekly close

Note

Highest weekly close!
To recap:
-That drop to 59k from 61k+ was THE move that was meant to be shorted down to ~50k. Luckily support was found at 59k to retest a parallel channel's upper trendline. Considering the lack of divergences then at 61k+, that minor drop was bought up from sellers worried about the price stabilizing near 61k amidst all of the resistance there.
-Not out of the woods yet as that sell region from 63k+ is still present. Will take a lot of $ to push through, but can be done with another correction back down under 60k or the price crabbing here at ~61k to allow more people to accumulate and force a supply shock.

Note

Some profit taken at 62.3k

Trade closed manually

Closed trade at 62.1k. Lack of volume after weekly close is concerning. Future ETF opening on Monday might affect the price. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Note

Bearish Div. forming on the 1 hour since Oct. 15. With the market opening in 2 hours releasing BTC's futures ETF, it can get a bit worrisome of a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Might enter a short soon.

Trade active

Entered short at 61.9k, sl at local high ~63k. Will tp at ~57k, followed by 53k.

Note

Noticing trendline support near 60.2k, if a V-shape recovery happens on lower time frames, I might consider closing this short. Otherwise, ~60.2k is a line of support needed to hold to prevent a major selloff down to 50k levels

Trade closed manually

Closed trade at a loss at 62.3k.

Trade active

Entered long at 62.6k

Note

The first time we've barged into the sell limit region over 63k, I expect turbulence to clear past 64.5k as long as momentum continues to flow strongly.
High volatility is expected given the bearish divergences on the 4 hour and BTC hitting sell limits around the global ath.
It's unfortunate we didn't get a shakeout to rekt some overleveraged longs and allow retail to fomo in and clear the ath in a candle or two.

Note

62k must hold. Will close long if we drop below it and confirm it as resistance.

Trade closed manually

Closed long trade at 63.2k. Not confident in opening any trades atm. However, we did hit a 1.618 fib level for wave 3. Wouldn't be surprised if we pivot from here down to 53k-57k. Opened long position at 53k in case of a correction.

Trade active

Entered long at 66.4k. Broke ath and cleared sell limit block region from 63k-64k. I expect more resistance near 70k.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stop loss hit

Note

Momentum indicator with default inputs has recently set a divergence on a daily candle from the highs of Oct 10 to the recent global ath. If paired with a parallel channel on a log-chart from the lows of 28k as support near the end of June to the highs of sept as resistance, we are at a resistance of this channel.
If another correction appears, I expect support at approx. 50k. It may not play out given the lack of other indicators flashing bearish signals, but it is something worth noting.

Note

A controversial technical indicator, moon phases, will print out a new moon on Nov. 5. So it is something to look out for on hourly time frames of bearish divs.
Last time we've retested the global ath of 2017 on the run up to 64k, BTC dropped ~20%, which from 70k would put us at 56k. Just 2k off from the bars pattern noted in the chart.

Note

New orderblocks at 65k-67k and 58k-59k.
imgur.com/a/bTdWwzJ

Note

Another rejection at 59k, and we'll drop to ~57k

linebands

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