Bitcoin - Failed Low May Signal A Bullish Reversal
Updated
After a couple weeks of being away visiting pops in Arizona, it has taken a few days to go over charts and get caught up to speed with the markets in general. I also had to de-program myself of Fox News which can be a detriment to how one trades and invest. So the Detox is finished, and after dusting off the charts and updating them, I am back in the swing of things. I want to say thank you to MarcPMarkets specifically for holding down the fort while I was out.
So where are we now? As I mentioned in my article the other day after returning from Phoenix, we had our first failed low since the beginning of April which resulted in a bullish rally to the 9600 level. Every short term rally since May resulted in a breakdown of the previous low pushing lower to the next support level, eventually resulting in a retest of the February low. There are numerous variables outside the standard BTCUSD' trading pair and the strength of the dollar that we noticed over a month ago can not be ignored. We posted in mid June the article about the BTCEUR' pair which has held the February low and is still in tact. Much of what is running the commodities market right now is the continued strengthening of the dollar. Whether it be gold', soybeans', cotton' or bitcoin', the dollar is fundamentally in the drivers seat right now. This is for another article, but I wanted to emphasize the point, so back to bitcoin'.
The current pullback resulted in a failed low and subsequent rally which provides some breathing air for longer term bulls. Well at least the hemorrhaging has stopped for the moment anyways. In addition to this failed low bitcoin' has also broken through the short and mid term bearish trend currently topping out between 6542 and 6748 which is the current extension zone of the failed low. Below 6000 there are support levels that extend into the low 3000's. This is still a possibility by all means, so we are not all in on buying here yet. This pattern does setup nicely for a rally to 8376 and a retest of the broader bearish resistance line. What the bulls really need is for this level and the trend line to be taken out. This would pave the path for a subsequent pullback and rally to the 10k level forming a higher high.
This does not come without caution. It is never over till it is over, and until we get a series of higher highs, and higher lows, we can not discount a capitulation back to the bears and retest the current low of 5735 or lower levels. Unlike many other coins, such as litecoin' and NEO' that have pulled back to their extreme support levels, bitcoin' has simply not. The extreme low for bitcoin' from a broader perspective is around the 4400-4500 level. This for one, proves that bitcoin' still remains the coin of choice for most longer term investors.
From a longer term perspective below, there are still two major longer term bullish trend lines that are still in tact. This does not imply that we have to retest them, at least yet. It does imply that the longer term bullish trend is still valid. We are still higher than we were 9 months ago, and very much higher than we were a year ago. I mention it all the time, and as another reminder, once the SEC' clears the way for ETF's and the custody issues is resolved (as is in the works) fresh money will again flow into the space and likely resume the bull market that has been so far removed from our thoughts.
So where are we now? As I mentioned in my article the other day after returning from Phoenix, we had our first failed low since the beginning of April which resulted in a bullish rally to the 9600 level. Every short term rally since May resulted in a breakdown of the previous low pushing lower to the next support level, eventually resulting in a retest of the February low. There are numerous variables outside the standard BTCUSD' trading pair and the strength of the dollar that we noticed over a month ago can not be ignored. We posted in mid June the article about the BTCEUR' pair which has held the February low and is still in tact. Much of what is running the commodities market right now is the continued strengthening of the dollar. Whether it be gold', soybeans', cotton' or bitcoin', the dollar is fundamentally in the drivers seat right now. This is for another article, but I wanted to emphasize the point, so back to bitcoin'.
The current pullback resulted in a failed low and subsequent rally which provides some breathing air for longer term bulls. Well at least the hemorrhaging has stopped for the moment anyways. In addition to this failed low bitcoin' has also broken through the short and mid term bearish trend currently topping out between 6542 and 6748 which is the current extension zone of the failed low. Below 6000 there are support levels that extend into the low 3000's. This is still a possibility by all means, so we are not all in on buying here yet. This pattern does setup nicely for a rally to 8376 and a retest of the broader bearish resistance line. What the bulls really need is for this level and the trend line to be taken out. This would pave the path for a subsequent pullback and rally to the 10k level forming a higher high.
This does not come without caution. It is never over till it is over, and until we get a series of higher highs, and higher lows, we can not discount a capitulation back to the bears and retest the current low of 5735 or lower levels. Unlike many other coins, such as litecoin' and NEO' that have pulled back to their extreme support levels, bitcoin' has simply not. The extreme low for bitcoin' from a broader perspective is around the 4400-4500 level. This for one, proves that bitcoin' still remains the coin of choice for most longer term investors.
From a longer term perspective below, there are still two major longer term bullish trend lines that are still in tact. This does not imply that we have to retest them, at least yet. It does imply that the longer term bullish trend is still valid. We are still higher than we were 9 months ago, and very much higher than we were a year ago. I mention it all the time, and as another reminder, once the SEC' clears the way for ETF's and the custody issues is resolved (as is in the works) fresh money will again flow into the space and likely resume the bull market that has been so far removed from our thoughts.
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