Bitcoin Breaks The Recent Uptrend...But Are We Bearish Yet?
Updated
Here's a Bitcoin update (separate from the video I just made this morning). As you can see, Bitcoin has clearly broken both recent uptrends. Dips are being bought, but not as aggressively as before. Volume fails to increase convincingly on bounces, and the bear flag from yesterday actually broke down instead of ending up as a bear trap. This is a more realistic analysis than my last post, of course. My previous chart illustrated the possibility of Bitcoin making a new all-time-high within the next month or two. But that's all it is - a possibility. Until Bitcoin proves it can hold most of its recent price appreciation and head up above 11.4K, this extreme bullish scenario won't be playing out.
Based on this price and volume action, I think it's possible that Bitcoin will correct lower to the 7.5K area or below. The light blue uptrend channel support is what needs to hold if Bitcoin is going to make a push higher in the coming months. We could have wicks below, but that's the area I'd like to see bulls hold on the weekly timeframe. Wicks could even go as low as $6800 or $6500, but weekly candles will ideally need to close above the long term uptrend (currently around $7100-7200). A correction to that area would also have us meet another potential uptrend:
What's interesting is that alt ratios aren't dropping so much. This tells me that the market is still more bullish than bearish, since it means some people are willing to shift some of their money over to alts like Ethereum and TRX, rather than withdrawing to fiat. This gives the possibility that the selloff is already over, but volume is telling me otherwise.
The daily RSI is interesting as well. Holding above 50 has been a sign of continuous bullish momentum, ever since February 8th, when we finally broke that resistance. We're currently resting there right now. If Bitcoin is going to avoid a longer correction, it's possible the dump is over. This also means that if we break below that RSI support, we could be in for a longer correction/consolidation period.
We have another potential bear flag as well. The breakdown target would be between 7200 and 7500. That's if we can't get convincingly back above $8100 soon:
Bitcoin and the bullish channel on the weekly with some potential scenarios illustrated:
Total market cap holding the center line of the long term bullish channel:
In summary, it's safe to say that no one (as usual) knows where the market is headed. All we can do is use the information available to us and speculate about which outcomes have slightly more probability. There are signals saying this is a bear trap (and thus the dump is over), but there are also signals saying we have some further downside. This is why DCAing and holding almost always beat out trying to time the market.
This is not financial advice. Just what I felt to be a necessary update to what I'm seeing in the market.
-Victor Cobra
Based on this price and volume action, I think it's possible that Bitcoin will correct lower to the 7.5K area or below. The light blue uptrend channel support is what needs to hold if Bitcoin is going to make a push higher in the coming months. We could have wicks below, but that's the area I'd like to see bulls hold on the weekly timeframe. Wicks could even go as low as $6800 or $6500, but weekly candles will ideally need to close above the long term uptrend (currently around $7100-7200). A correction to that area would also have us meet another potential uptrend:
What's interesting is that alt ratios aren't dropping so much. This tells me that the market is still more bullish than bearish, since it means some people are willing to shift some of their money over to alts like Ethereum and TRX, rather than withdrawing to fiat. This gives the possibility that the selloff is already over, but volume is telling me otherwise.
The daily RSI is interesting as well. Holding above 50 has been a sign of continuous bullish momentum, ever since February 8th, when we finally broke that resistance. We're currently resting there right now. If Bitcoin is going to avoid a longer correction, it's possible the dump is over. This also means that if we break below that RSI support, we could be in for a longer correction/consolidation period.
We have another potential bear flag as well. The breakdown target would be between 7200 and 7500. That's if we can't get convincingly back above $8100 soon:
Bitcoin and the bullish channel on the weekly with some potential scenarios illustrated:
Total market cap holding the center line of the long term bullish channel:
In summary, it's safe to say that no one (as usual) knows where the market is headed. All we can do is use the information available to us and speculate about which outcomes have slightly more probability. There are signals saying this is a bear trap (and thus the dump is over), but there are also signals saying we have some further downside. This is why DCAing and holding almost always beat out trying to time the market.
This is not financial advice. Just what I felt to be a necessary update to what I'm seeing in the market.
-Victor Cobra
Note
ETH is still looking stronger than Bitcoin on this drop, strangely enough. The recent bear flag broke down, but the target hasn't quite been reached yet. We'll see if it can continue lower towards either of my red X's, or if buying pressure on altcoins saves the market from a further cascade downwards. Note
Altcoins starting to not look great either. A bigger drop is becoming more likely, but I guess we'll see.Note
Perfectly nailed my target for the second bear flag. Bears are struggling to follow through to lower levels for now. Below 7.4/7.5K is the massive support area between 6.8 and 7.2K. Note
Alts are starting to look fine again. Most are stable on their ratios. It's still possible we still see a major altcoin cycle soon (as per some of my recent charts). We shall see.Note
Decision time. 8.5K or 7.2K? 
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