#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bull trend stalling and market went sideways for a week. Bulls want to touch the bear trend line around 71000 again and bears want to break the bull trend line and drop below 63000 again. Simple as that. Will buy on strong momentum up and only consider shorts once the bull trend line is broken.
current market cycle: Trading range (smaller bull trend inside of it)
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls move sideways for a week and got a strong rejection from 69400. They ill poke again above 69000 and try to print 70000 or higher again. Since this is a trading range 63000-69000, there is no deeper analysis. Bulls could have another leg up or not. I wait for a clear breakout and trade along.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Still nothing for the bears. Best they can hope for is to make the market go sideways under 70000. I do think that if they break the bull trend line, market can drop faster than it went up.
Invalidation is above 70000.
outlook last week: (none)
short term: Bullish if we break above 68000 for tp 70000 or higher. Absolute no interest in shorts.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68000 and now we are at 68000. High was 69400, so 600 points short. Decent outlook.
short term: neutral. My best guess is that market is not able to reach 70000 again and reverses over the next days. Obviously too early to talk about shorts but I have no interest in longs above 66000.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Dead cat bounce way too strong to call it that. Still holding my 40000 target for 2024.
current swing trade: none
chart update: none
Quote from last week:
comment: Bull trend is losing steam but still very bullish. Every dip is bought and market is mostly staying above the 4h 20ema. My measured move target upwards is around 72000. Do not look to short this is my advice and only look for strong bull breakouts on pullbacks. Trend kinda had 3 pushes up already but until the bull trend line is broken and market is trading below the daily 20ema, looking for shorts is a waste of time.
comment: Bull trend stalling and market went sideways for a week. Bulls want to touch the bear trend line around 71000 again and bears want to break the bull trend line and drop below 63000 again. Simple as that. Will buy on strong momentum up and only consider shorts once the bull trend line is broken.
current market cycle: Trading range (smaller bull trend inside of it)
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls move sideways for a week and got a strong rejection from 69400. They ill poke again above 69000 and try to print 70000 or higher again. Since this is a trading range 63000-69000, there is no deeper analysis. Bulls could have another leg up or not. I wait for a clear breakout and trade along.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Still nothing for the bears. Best they can hope for is to make the market go sideways under 70000. I do think that if they break the bull trend line, market can drop faster than it went up.
Invalidation is above 70000.
outlook last week: (none)
short term: Bullish if we break above 68000 for tp 70000 or higher. Absolute no interest in shorts.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68000 and now we are at 68000. High was 69400, so 600 points short. Decent outlook.
short term: neutral. My best guess is that market is not able to reach 70000 again and reverses over the next days. Obviously too early to talk about shorts but I have no interest in longs above 66000.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Dead cat bounce way too strong to call it that. Still holding my 40000 target for 2024.
current swing trade: none
chart update: none
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