COVID Killed the BTC Cycles
Updated
This is my first publish charts for BTC. I have a theory however I am not TA expert by all means, but I am a very visual and analytical person by nature. I am not one to pump or boast my thoughts or predictions however, I would like to share my current thoughts on both scenarios.
Bearish:
BTC is now done and we consolidate and wait for next accumulation phase to kick in. BTC ATH just meme'd the entire world with a top of $69,000k flat
BTCUSD
Bullish:
BTC dumps further down to 43k and bounces back before to top around March/April 2022. This is what I have visual publish in charts. This does not mean I believe this is how it will go.
Final Thoughts:
Whether or not we go over 69k for 2021 or even 2022, I feel that 69k is decent ATH for 2021. Although the % gains are not as high as previous years, overall it shows the strength we have to continue on. What I can say is that if we do not set another ATH, you can throw TA and on-chain metrics in the bin. Narrow minded people can be subjected to oblivion and perspective.
Bearish:
BTC is now done and we consolidate and wait for next accumulation phase to kick in. BTC ATH just meme'd the entire world with a top of $69,000k flat
BTCUSDBullish:
BTC dumps further down to 43k and bounces back before to top around March/April 2022. This is what I have visual publish in charts. This does not mean I believe this is how it will go.
Final Thoughts:
Whether or not we go over 69k for 2021 or even 2022, I feel that 69k is decent ATH for 2021. Although the % gains are not as high as previous years, overall it shows the strength we have to continue on. What I can say is that if we do not set another ATH, you can throw TA and on-chain metrics in the bin. Narrow minded people can be subjected to oblivion and perspective.
Note
Updaing the block as you cannot see itThis is my interpretation of the BTC Halving Cycles
1. This current Bullish Market is 10 weeks less then last.
2. There is a 37% Increase in weeks, ATH Since BTC Halving 2013 - 2017. Applying that to the 2017 - 2021 we would be at 101 Weeks
3. The bottom trendline first hits March 2020 ever since 2011. It is the lowest point BTC has been in it's existence...hence...
4. March COVID crash caused a delay in what would have been an earlier peaked top to the bull market.
5. Note: Both ATHs from 2013 > 2017 > 2021 are equal to approx. 200 weeks, thus could validate we are done for this cycle
Note
It about time I updated this chart. I've had it open for months but never got around to updating it since I posted. I guess the Bearish scenario played out. See snapshot for some minor changes:- Question Mark on 2022 bear removed
- Red Zone from 2021 Nov drop has been updated, Now predicting a macro to be in by Early to mid Oct 2022.
- Shorted Bull Market green zone to align with above.
- Bear/Bull % differences between macro lows (Averages)
- Extended the ATH 2017 cross over to 2022 cross over in June 2022
Note: This is a calculation based on the Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycles, not taking any macro or wave count analysis.
Note
Another Update to this chart as I haven't played around with it for a while but I have readjusted the timings to that of the 2014-15. All time during Bear and Bullish markets have played out. Question is if we have reached the bottom, if going by history we are on track and bottom is in but a potential retest of lows is on the cards.
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