Long

WILL THE "CARTEL" BRING THE BITCOIN BULLS BACK ON JUNE 6TH???

Updated

As we already know that we have 3 major dimensions in bitcoin market which is

1. Technical Analysis
2. Fundamental Analysis
3. Manipulation

For Technical Analysis I use Elliott Waves (EW) with other Indicators to double confirm the trend

Fractals
Candlestick Patterns
Moving Average
Volume Profile & Bars
Rsi & Stochastic
Support & Resistance

So apart from the Technical Analysis there is a 4th Possible Dimension called "Cartel". The Primary Goal of Cartel is "Price Suppression" and it is not manipulation. Credit goes to this article here: medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-can-it-be-burnt-no-way-c53de65c166a

But always do your own research before believe in anyone or anything and that's the way i think is the best so that you don't have to blame anyone or anything and you take ownership for your own decisions

Have a look at what happened since CME Futures Started. Every 6th of the month Trend changes the opposite direction and one week before CME Futures expires.
You can find the CME Future Expiration dates here: cryptocalendar.pro/events/bitcoin

So do you think CME Futures is part of the "Cartel" ? It doesn't matter for me but this helps us to understand something going on every 6th of every month since CME Bitcoin futures open on 17th December 2017!!!.

Its not a coincidence that Every 6th of the month Trend Change the opposite direction and with the EW waves count i have done the last wave exactly ends on 6th of June. All the Best for everyone on June 6th 2018

RISK DISCLOSURE:

Please note that this is purely Educational purposes only and not as Individual Investment Advice. If you choose to follow the above techniques you do so at your own risk after giving thorough and reasonable thought and consideration to your actions and their potential consequences

Note

With the selling pressure we got at the moment with the FUD being manufactured: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe?utm_content=crypto&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

we might see Feb low of 5.9k before June 6th

Note

So we have an idea when the trend changes. When more people know about this one day they will also change the frequency of the doing this so don't stop using your TA's.

Now if you want to see how low we can go and when is the next stop of the next uptrend lets use both Price action and EW to find that out.

Wave (C) was ~93% of Wave (A) if Wave (E) follows the same price action then ~93% of Wave (D) is 6.65k

EW gives a totally different figure of scary 5.3k low but with BTC anything could happen with the Manipulation + Cartel so we need to consider all the possibilities here they don't care about Longterm Support or TA but EW will helps us with Fibo to find the current location of the market.

Now lets see how high we can go after the down trend is completed:

If we use the Price Action to project the next stop of the uptrend we can see that the Previous top of 9.96k was around 69% of Wave (B). So if we have the same price action in the next uptrend which is 69% of Wave (D) then BTC may go up to ~8.8k

We can't use EW yet as I can't see any possible correction pattern here. If you see any correction pattern please feel free to share it. We can project the end of the wave 5 atleast when the wave 1 is done.

if BTC manage to break the longterm support then there is a possibility that it will also break the longterm resistance. Only the time will tell but atleast we know roughly this happens on 6th of every month until the Cartel decides to change the frequency

Note

Sorry I was not at home to give you an update with a clear picture with the price actions compared to Wave A on a chart.

Please note that after every subwave you need to check and update all the waves to have accurate projections.

So now I have updated the chart with the previous Wave A Price & the Fibo Levels. Wave ((ii)) only had 0.386 and Wave ((iv)) had 0.5

So according to that here's the projection of the remaining waves ((ii)) to ((v))

Also Wave C can be around 1.236 of Wave A but as you can see Wave ((i)) of Wave C did more than 1.236 of Wave ((i)) of Wave A so Wave C can go further than that.

1.236 of Wave A is around 6k but if we continue the selling pressure like we had in wave ((i)) then we might go lower than 6k!

Also there is possibility that Cartel comes out from Nowhere and go long before 6th so I encourage you to setup some alert on your Phone App based on a range like 7.2k - 7.7k or something better that you can think of so that you wont miss this opportunity of getting into the Bull Run.

If you not too sure how to calculate the waves then there is Android App that you can use to calculate this automatically for you if you know the start and the end of the first wave:

play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.trademe.android.elliotwave&hl=en

Please note that even the app doesn't you put 0.386 for the wave ((ii)) as its normally 0.5 - 0.8. See the screenshot here:

screenshot.net/mvx4etd

For someone who is interested of calculating the Fibo levels manually check here:

Wave A (9960 - 7930):

Wave ((i)) ~800 (9970 - 9170)
Wave ((ii)) ~800 * 0.386 = ~300 (9170 - 9470)
Wave ((iii)) ~800 * 1.618 = ~1300 (9470 - 8170)
Wave ((iv)) ~1300 * 0.5 = ~650 (8170 - 8900)
Wave ((v)) ~980 (8900 - 7920)

According to the above Wave A, Wave C Projection:

Wave ((i)) ~1300 (8580 - 7270)
Wave ((ii)) ~1300 x 0.386 = ~500 (7270 - 7800)
Wave ((iii)) ~1300 x 1.618 = 2100 (7800 - 5700)
Wave ((iv)) ~2100 x 0.5 = ~1050 (5700 - 6750)
Wave ((v)) ~1300 (6750 - 5450)

Good luck you all. Thanks

Note

This guy also see a similar pattern with the indicators: NVT, Volume Profile & Volatility. I'm not too sure how accurate is NVT Ratios, Volume Profile Cliffs with Volatility but this looks very interesting

twitter.com/woonomic/status/1000223528803762176/photo/1?tfw_creator=newsbtc&tfw_site=newsbtc&ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/26/analyst-says-bitcoin-may-drop-5500-new-upside-q3-q4-2018/

Note

BTC Finally started wave ((iii)) of C and this is up to 1.618 of wave ((i)) and it's the longest wave. Expect this to break 6.8-7.2k long term support zone first then free fall to lower 6k's or even higher 5k's

Note

Big Picture of Wave C or Correction Wave (E)

Note

The key to finding an accurate end of wave of Wave 5 projection is to have multiple confirmations or using multiple ways to find the same target

There are couple of ways to find Wave 5 target

1. Channeling the Trend by drawing parallel lines of 2 & 4 but we need to wait until wave 4 is completed. See more info here:

5 STEPS TO CHANNEL THE TARGET WAVE 5 USING ELLIOTT WAVES

2. Fibo ratios of Wave ((i)).

Usually Wave ((iii)) is 1.618 of Wave ((i)) and Wave ((v)) is 1 of Wave ((i))

Wave ((i)) is ~1300 and Wave ((iii)) which is ~1.618 of Wave ((i)) completes around 5.5k (see the extended lines).

3. Fibo ratios of Subwaves of Wave ((i))

Wave (i) of Wave ((i)) is 271
Wave (iii) is 3.618+ of Wave (i)
Wave (v) is 1.618+ of Wave (i)

So according to this if you apply the same to Wave ((iii))

Wave (i) of Wave ((iii)) = 412
Wave (iii) of Wave ((iii)) = (Wave (i) x 3.618+) = ~1500
Wave (v) of Wave ((iii) = (Wave (i) x 1.618+) = ~700

4. Support & Resistance

Three Major Support Lines to watch in Dotted lines

6.5k (Blue)
6k (Orange)
5.5 (Red)

So according to all this most likely wave 5 target falls in the range of 5.5k - 6k

Note

It's VERY important that you check and update the waves after every wave is completed. Especially when you see the fibo levels are not correct or when the waves not behaving according to the plan.

Initially i thought that Wave ((i)) is 7.2k and i was wrong and it looks like Wave ((i)) is ~7k and we can get wave ((ii)) retracement upto 0.382 - 0.5 of Wave ((i)) like it did in Wave ((i)) of Wave A.

This could take BTC upto around 7.8k level before we go down

Note

Wave ((iii) is a correction Wave of Wave ((i)) which got 3 SubWaves inside (a,b,c)

Last of the SubWave c of ((ii)) of A only less than 61.8 of Wave a of ((ii)) of A

According to this SubWave c of ((ii)) of C can go up to around 7600 - 7700

Note

Correction: Wave ((ii)) is a correction Wave of Wave ((i)) which got 3 SubWaves inside (a,b,c)

Note

Not much to update here as we still going inside this ending diagonal

But i found something that is very interesting from Chief Commodity Analyst
@ Elliot Wave International which applies to the current situation

See from 8:50 & 17:50 onwards

youtube.com/watch?v=d-WXwNg4mUg

Also I noted down the very important things that we need to understand:

Why do people have difficulty trading the Wave Principle ?

"The Primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for
market analysis" The Wave Principle as it stands, is not a trading methodology

This can be found in Page 1 - Chapter 1 of the Original book of Elliot Waves Principle:

Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily
a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave.

Going back to the video summary he also mentioned that Wave Principle improves Trading:

Wave analysis identifies the trend
It identifies countertrend moves within the trend
It signals the resumption of the trend
It identifies the termination of the trend
It provides high-probability objectives
It provides specific points of ruin

So we need to understand how the market moves before we can analyse and if you know
all 4 dimensions of the market then it becomes much easier for you.

But without knowing how market behave i think it's difficult to analyse using the tools.

Hope this helps

Note

As you know I follow 3 confirmations to enter a trade. So far we got multiple 1hr candles closed below the ending diagonal of wave c of wave ((ii))

wave ((iii)) can be confirmed after we go below the start of wave c (7.27k) and start of wave a (7.02k).

I also started creating a new idea to find the most possible Market Bottom or the End of Wave (E).

This is just the beginning of that:

Note

WILL THE "CARTEL" BRING THE BITCOIN BULLS BACK ON JUNE 6TH???

NO. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL FIVE WAVES NEEDS TO COMPLETED AND WE ARE STILL IN WAVE ((iii))

WILL THE CARTEL BE ABLE TO CHANGE THE TREND OPPOSITE DIRECTION ON 6TH ?

AS YOU CAN SEE WAVE ((I)) DID 1.6K (8.6K TO 7K) AND THEN THE RETRACEMENT OF WAVE ((II)) DID ALMOST 0.5 OF WAVE ((II)) AS EXPECTED. WAVES ARE REPRESENTATION OF WHAT MAJORITY OF TRADERS
THINKING AND THIS INCLUDES THE CARTEL AND WE CANT CHANGE THE WAY THAT MAJORITY OF TRADERS + WHAT THE CARTEL IS THINKING. SO THE ANSWER IS NO AS WELL.

ALSO NOTE THAT IF THE WAVE ((III)) STOP GOING DOWN AND REVERSE MEANS THAT I HAVE DONE THE WAVE COUNTING ALL WRONG BUT I CANNOT SEE ANY RETRACEMENT LIKE THIS BEFORE 7K. NOTE THAT THE RETRACEMENT SHOULD BE ATLEAST 0.386 TO IDENTIFY AS A WAVE 1,3 OR 5 RETRACEMENT

NOW WHAT ?

IF WAVE ((II)) OF C DID SAME AS WAVE ((II)) OF A THEN WE COULD EXPECT OTHER WAVES ((III)), ((IV)) & ((V)) TO FOLLOW THE SAME. REFER THE CHART FOR FIBO RATIOS

ALSO YOU COULD EXPECT WAVE ((V)) TO GO DOWN FURTHER AS PEOPLE MAY PANIC AT THESE STAGES.

SEE THE BIGGER PICTURE HERE:

Note

It's already 6th in NZ and we had a pump. Looks like some group doing FOMO or Cartel is playing with us to go FOMO.

When something like this happens i normally ask these question myself.

Is this normal ?
Why do I think its normal ?
If it's normal then what could i expect now ?
Is there a possibility that this could turn around ?

So according to this is this normal ? Yes it is perfectly normal and the reason why i think its normal because all this time i knew that wave 2 can be the trickiest wave that makes people go fomo because of the higher retracement levels which is 0.8 of wave 1

See my previous idea here for the retracement levels that i was using by then:

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Bitcoin Market Cycle (2017 - 2018)

So what could we expect now ? At the moment we are in the subwave (ii) retracement of wave ((iii)) so expect this to goto 7.72 - 7.76k max

Is there a possibility that this could turn around ? No if it did then my wave counting is wrong. If someone see my wave counting is wrong so far i would also like to hear from them.

Btw i feel sad about the fomo buyers here who go long thinking that this is the start of the bull run to the moon. Patience is one of the keys to success

Note

6 BITCOIN CYCLES + CURRENT SITUATION + FUTURE

Note

Some people thinks that we might be heading towards 3 - 4k levels. Here's my point of view of that using 3 possible support lines:

1. Blue: 5800 - 6100 [Only possible if Wave ((v)) get truncated]
2. Orange: 4700 - 5000 (This is most likely where we heading)
3. Red: 4100 - 4400 [Only possible if Wave ((iii)) is extended (1.618 - 2.618 of wave ((i))]

Zoomed Support Lines:

To find what's the most likely support line i use Elliott Waves. As you know might know by now we got ABCDE Descending Triangle Correction wave pattern. We are in the E wave which got 3 subwaves inside. Type of Correction waves can be found here:

elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

You can see this 3 subwaves of E (A, B & C) and we have completed A & B waves and going to C. A & C are impulsive waves and B is a correction.

Impulsive Waves: 1, 3, 5, A, C (5 subwaves inside each wave)
Correction Waves: 2, 4, B (3 subwaves inside each wave)

Normal Fibonacci ratios for the waves:

wave 2 = 0.5 - 0.8 of wave 1
wave 3 = 1.236 - 1.618 of wave 1
wave 4 = 0.5 - 0.618 of wave 3
wave 5 = 0.618 - 1 of wave 1
wave B = 0.5 - 0.8 of wave A
wave C = 0.618 - 1.236 of wave A

Wave ((i)) of A: 985$
Wave ((ii)) of A: 434$ [~0.5 of Wave ((i))]
Wave ((iii)) of A: 1207$ [~1.236 of Wave ((i))]
Wave ((iv)) of A: 691$ [~0.618 of Wave ((iii))]
Wave ((v)) of A: 950$ [~ 1 of Wave ((i))]

Now if you apply the same for the last wave C of (E) this is what you get:

Wave ((i)) of C: 1587$
Wave ((ii)) of C [~0.5 of Wave ((i))] = 793$
Wave ((iii)) of C [~1.236 of Wave ((i))] = 1961$
Wave ((iv)) of C [~0.618 of Wave ((iii))] = 1212$
Wave ((v)) of C [~ 1 of Wave ((i))] = 1587$

Also note that Wave ((iv)) might not retrace upto 0.618 of Wave ((iii)) as everyone will be in panic mode by that time so minimum retracement would be around 0.386 of Wave ((iii)) which is around 756$ and this is why i can see it goes down to 5k level or little bit more towards 4.7k which is the lowest level of the 1st support zone (orange dotted lines)

Hope this make sense

Note

Note

Analysis of ALL Bitcoin (BTC) Cycles since 2010

surangadesilva

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