Back to the basics...again.
My posts are going to continue to be really simple because I believe in fundamentals and I believe in the long term. My first chart shows how no change happens if we simply recover by the end of the year. The chart won't change much if we go into a full on downtrend and lose even more market cap as well. Some people will continue to hold and some people will continue to short-sell, but it's still of no consequence.
The second chart shows just how much a newer high changes over all perspective. If we establish $25000 by years end you can see that what I call noise begins to minimize more and more.
The third chart shows that in the long run that if the market continues to grow, all of this up and down from January to May will be nothing to even mention other than it was a historic year in the continuous evolution of cryptocurrencies. I stopped only half way into 2019 because the bottom line becomes more and more non-existent.
Now the parabolic line that I've created should actually be considered part of a bell curve. If you believe that these new currencies are in the infant stage, then guess what, this bell curve is barely starting which means we have a long way to go up before we even consider it falling. A lot of people say that crypto won't be around or bitcoin won't be around in 100 years. So let's say that we are 8 years into a 50 year peak. That leaves us 42 year of growth before we actually start a decline. Even taking into account the slowing of growth at the end that leaves an easy 20 years of consistent exponential growth. 20 years at even 300% growth is maddening.
On the other hand, if we are on a 20 year cycle and we are almost at the peak that mean we will see slow growth till 2020 and then we start our decline. Because we still haven't reached our final coin in mining of bitcoin I don't see it ending that quickly. As far as pre-mined coins go, they might be a great indicator as to what will happen after the last coin is mined. Hopefully failure isn't in the cards.
Last of all, let's say that there ends up being a coin for every country in the world and by some miracle we have shifts in GDP and wealth gap so that all coins become equal. Very unlikely scenario I admit, but using comparative advantage and looking as to how with the right incentive, we might actually be able to pull this off, let's take a look at global GDP. Divide it by 100+ countries. This would give us a baseline of what we could see in crypto-growth for any given coin. I'm not going to attempt that calculation this post, because I'm sure it will be really controversial and a lot of people will criticize it, but I'm planting a seed for thought.
Hope my wild ideas are reaching a few people in the end. Till next time.
The second chart shows just how much a newer high changes over all perspective. If we establish $25000 by years end you can see that what I call noise begins to minimize more and more.
The third chart shows that in the long run that if the market continues to grow, all of this up and down from January to May will be nothing to even mention other than it was a historic year in the continuous evolution of cryptocurrencies. I stopped only half way into 2019 because the bottom line becomes more and more non-existent.
Now the parabolic line that I've created should actually be considered part of a bell curve. If you believe that these new currencies are in the infant stage, then guess what, this bell curve is barely starting which means we have a long way to go up before we even consider it falling. A lot of people say that crypto won't be around or bitcoin won't be around in 100 years. So let's say that we are 8 years into a 50 year peak. That leaves us 42 year of growth before we actually start a decline. Even taking into account the slowing of growth at the end that leaves an easy 20 years of consistent exponential growth. 20 years at even 300% growth is maddening.
On the other hand, if we are on a 20 year cycle and we are almost at the peak that mean we will see slow growth till 2020 and then we start our decline. Because we still haven't reached our final coin in mining of bitcoin I don't see it ending that quickly. As far as pre-mined coins go, they might be a great indicator as to what will happen after the last coin is mined. Hopefully failure isn't in the cards.
Last of all, let's say that there ends up being a coin for every country in the world and by some miracle we have shifts in GDP and wealth gap so that all coins become equal. Very unlikely scenario I admit, but using comparative advantage and looking as to how with the right incentive, we might actually be able to pull this off, let's take a look at global GDP. Divide it by 100+ countries. This would give us a baseline of what we could see in crypto-growth for any given coin. I'm not going to attempt that calculation this post, because I'm sure it will be really controversial and a lot of people will criticize it, but I'm planting a seed for thought.
Hope my wild ideas are reaching a few people in the end. Till next time.
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