Long term resistance breaker Bingo
6 days till Weekly close
Confirmed candle: 5.5 of 9 points
Unconfirmed candle: 7 of 9 points
Each technical condition can be 0, 0.5 or 1 points.
Daily chart:
It did test the 19k price and got a strong support move back into the long term resistance trendline.
4h chart:
If not, worst case long term is somewhere around 9-7k to find the absolute depression. While hang-up on bottom fishing.
Confirmed candle: 5.5 of 9 points
Unconfirmed candle: 7 of 9 points
Each technical condition can be 0, 0.5 or 1 points.
Daily chart:
It did test the 19k price and got a strong support move back into the long term resistance trendline.
4h chart:
If not, worst case long term is somewhere around 9-7k to find the absolute depression. While hang-up on bottom fishing.
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Worst case chart on Monthly chart:4 of 9 points
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Converting points into percent chance of a price increase.Above convert to:
Monthly: 44 %
Weekly Confirmed candle: 61 %
Weekly Unconfirmed candle: 78 %
Daily: 56 %
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Updates on the Daily and 4h charts with:- Daily unconfirmed candle 33 %
- 4h unconfirmed candle 44 %
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A bad habit of being too cautious of unconfirmed potential data.- 4h confirmed into 56 %
- new Daily unconfirmed 39 %
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Misread of monthly data, correct chance: 67 %Confirmed weekly: 72 %
Confirmed daily: 44 %
Confirmed 4h: 56 %
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New confirmed closesMonthly: 56 %
Weekly: 72 %
Daily: 28 %
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New confirmed closesWeekly: 83 % (at major resistance, likely to form a bullflag)
Daily: 33 %
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As expected some pullback from the major resistance zone.New confirmed closes:
- Weekly: 50 %
- Daily: 33 %
- 4h: 56 %
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Unconfirmed 44 % on Potential Chart Pattern ChartSnap:
Chart:
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Monthly (67%) Linear to Log Scale Side by Side:<deleted>
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Not much change, the Price Action was within the expected.Weekly Confirmed 44%:
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Did more or less the expected price action so far as mention on Apr 17 commentWeekly 33 or 39 % | depends on how we calculate the mixed signals.
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No update last weekly close because either market move is possible from the current price structure. And many possible psychological state model pattern fit too, like e.g. the good ol'sucker rally.Or in other words: Too many variables to make a calculated guess.
Yet that to be said, I still trade as usual on Bitcoin Futures and hold around 11% of my portfolio in cryptocurrencies while having no interest in selling for neither greed nor fear.
Also the time around to go out and touch some grass. A vacation as some call it.
A high number of the combined indicator values at support price levels yet still mean a possible great long opportunity.
log to linear:
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Absolute beautiful textbook bullish trend pattern outcome on the Daily. Weekly may follow. Note
Pattern Update Note
Pattern UpdateNote
Important Update on the Volume Pattern
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New weekly close.Keep the 'volume pattern' and the 'repetition pattern' ideas in mind.
*Adjusted the priceline drawing at 31.7k
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Important repetition patterns to indicator value levels.Daily:
Weekly:
- Volume pattern
- MACD TORYS trendzone (!)
*Added priceline at 37.6k
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Candle of the above comment is still open. A repainting is possible.Note
Both Weekly and Monthly timeframes still look strong but first indications of weakness appear on the open weekly candle with a current lower high and a decreasing macd histogram.Weekly snap:
Daily (9 hour till close):
I did take profits and recommend it. Yet, I think it is always better to bet on the collective human greed rather than its fear.
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Daily is conflicting:Weekly closed with weakness indications:
If the weekly follows down the curved yellow, then I for sure will be there as support, when the numbers seem right.
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with 'conflicting' I mean technical indications with opposing signalsNote
how bull market works, simplified: youtu.be/0SYEpE95f7cNote
Potential seagull riding on another seagull breakout on the Daily:Weekly is concerning but the idea is called Resistance Breaker afterall:
Monthly view on it is what it is:
*Added priceline at 48222.96
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Potential weekly correction setup that matches the date of the bold idea of 'timing the market'.*1d12h till weekly close
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Weekly Resistance Retest Chart
Monthly Snap +5d till close
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Monthly Volume Pattern idea update. Idea name is still program, likelihood uncertain. Getting closer to the 'Timing the market' idea date too.Weekly +5d till close snap with updated chart and set date
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Since this pattern on the daily was the (2nd) start of this idea, a bit of hopium on the 4h tf as it shows a similar patternNote
4h paints itself so far. Compare to the snap above.Note
4h at Monthly closeMonthly close
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Weekly close
Monthly +1D till close
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