Short

Updated

BTC showing similarities from 2017/2018 (the bearish kind)

It starts with the white bull flags. The 72 degree trend angle (yellow) is nearly identical to the current run's trend angle of 70 degrees.

There were two distinct peaks created during the bull run followed by a minor correction then a continuation candle (circled in white and red). Once again there's been a identical pattern in our current run.

In 2017 there were two bearish engulfing candle formations (circled in pink), one above and one below the -81 degree trend angle (orange). The same has occurred during this bull run.

Both runs have a hammer candle reversal under the same down trend angle (circled in teal).

The current baseline support in green has a 14 degree angle. The down trend resistance line from the 2017 peak till now is -16 degrees, well within the symmetrical structure which indicates that it's going to take strong buying to break above it if it even gets retested which won't happen anytime soon if this run follows the same pattern in 2017/2018.

One thing is obvious: a correction is coming.

The question: how much?

I linked my chart on Bulkowski's Bump and Run Reversal as reference for the criteria he uses for the support/reversal zones. I moved those zones over to this chart as that pattern is still valid since the recent failed breakout above $12.5k. In 2018 the lowest low from peak bottomed out around the red circle. If the same holds true here, BTC would drop into the $7,500 range which is in the 14% chance reversal zone and right at the 0.382 Fib support.

*The percentage chance of reversals are valid. Just because BTC bottomed out in a certain way then doesn't mean it will now!!!*

It's important to note the key trend line (dashed purple). It acted as a long standing support during the 2017/2018 bull run and subsequent down hill run. Will it do the same here? Time will tell.

Next question: when?

My best estimate is within the next 30 days BTC if bottoms out similar to how it did in 2017/2018. Given the compressed nature of this pattern in comparison to that in 2017/2018, 2 weeks is a more approximate estimate.

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P.S. Tradingview needs a feature to publish exactly what I see. I've spent over an hour having to redraw the chart and rewrite this description because every time I post trend angles, arrows and other objects they aren't where they're supposed to be (and still aren't). I started this 2 hours ago and posted before the last 4 hour close. Since then I've been having to delete and redraw. It would have been nice if this went out before BTC dumped 3%. The good news is there's still time to plan an exit strategy.

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Quite a few of you have been asking me about LTC. Given the fact that BTC tends to affect all alts when it drops, here's my projected reentry for LTC:

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Fun fact about double top formations is that they fail 65% of the time.

It's too early to head down, expect a pullback here.

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Momentum from the pullback makes the green arrow path (at least the 1st two arrows) more likely.

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Price moved according to the last update with the momentum from the pullback almost touching the orange resistance line then heading back to the yellow baseline where support failed and price broke below the confirmation line.

Note that when I draw arrows for price movement, that's exactly what they show: movement. The timing will always vary but the important takeaway is that I'm pointing them at supports and resistances.

If you goto my BTC Bump and Run Reversal chart (linked below under related ideas) you'll see that I had a trendline as a minimum target for the down hill run. BTC is testing that trendline and I moved it over on this double top chart (red) as reference because this could be a key BTC reversal if the double top does in fact ultimately fail. The reasoning is that the bump and run reversal top has technically run its course (even though BTC can go lower, it's fulfilled its guidelines and this is the 2nd time it's reversed in the 55% zone).

Unofficially this is BTC's 2nd attempt to break below the confirmation level and with each attempt the probability to validate (break below) increases. I added those probabilities onto the chart. If the double top validates, Bulkowski states that the average drop from the confirmation level is 20% with a 10-15% drop being more likely. I went ahead and added those support zones in green.

These zones are completely independent from the support zones I listed on all my other charts. They do overlap and it's another piece of information to consider when reentering.

Lastly, alts have been slaughtered and many have returned to long standing baseline supports. If BTC were to fall further I don't know how well they can hold and what to expect if they fail. The important thing to note is that if their supports do hold, BTC would have to be done correcting so that's an interesting angle to consider.

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Currently we're experiencing a pullback to the confirmation level. This is completely normal behavior for a double top formation. The question is will it break above or validate and head down to the support zones.

Given the momentum of the buy volume, I'd expect price to break above the confirmation zone where it'll reverse off of one of the resistances and head back down to the confirmation level where it'll validate and move into the support zones.

Pullbacks are not a sign for reversal. They're consolidations within a larger structure and typically the trend continues downward after the pullback is complete.

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After a bullish 4 hour candle earlier in the day, volume dropped off and BTC didn't even test some minor trend line resistances. Unless a huge push comes along BTC will close under the confirmation level and any trader who knows this formation and hasn't sold the pullback will dump, starting the drop into the support zones.

Even if BTC were to press up and close above the confirmation level, there are numerous levels of resistance to overcome and it'll likely to drop back to the confirmation level where the probability of validating the double top increases substantially for the 3rd attempt.

Alts have already started selling off their gains for the day and those who thought the correction was over and bought the pump are about to get stuck holding the bag.

Both the 4 and 8 hour candles show signs of price heading lower and currently the daily resembles a wide body doji which simply shows indecision. A doji here does not signify a reversal but rather a continuation of the trend given its neutral position in relation to the overall trading structure.

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BTC unexpectedly broke above the confirmation level after feigning a downward move and bouncing off of the .382 Fib. I watched it live and if there's a time to cry "mAniPULiZaTIon!" this would be it but losers whine while winners go home and receive consensual sex with the prom queen.

What does this move mean? Absolutely nothing that wasn't on the chart already.
There was anticipated movement to continue up into resistance (yellow and orange trend lines, 0.5 Fib at $11,300) after the pullback and ultimately that's what happened here. Also anticipated was hitting resistance where BTC is right now so it's important to see if this momentum will carry it higher or if it goes back down to the confirmation zone.

Alts are pumping, some believe the correction is over and that's when BTC gets dangerous. Markets rarely do a 180 and it's even more rare for them to do two 180s consecutively so I'd expect this momentum to carry over. Moreover, BTC has broken above two key down trend resistances from the 2nd peak (white) and it'll be harder for BTC to break below them now that they'll be acting as support. If you recall my original estimate for bottom was 2 weeks. The 2017/2018 rally took about a month. I marked the start of the analysis with a pink vertical line and made two additional marks at 2 and 3 weeks. Follow the white down trend supports and they lead to a nice little window where BTC could drop into the support zone while staying above the down trend lines and it all happens within 3 weeks. There's still a lot of resistance for BTC to overcome so plan accordingly.

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Looking at the comparison to 2017/2018 candle 1 is done. Both closed below the hammer candle (teal circle). Currently BTC is candle 2 and should close within the wick of the hammer candle. The next series of candles (3) should flatten out before heading down to bottom (4). Timeline suggest it should be late July/early August for BTC to bottom.

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Here's an updated chart showing BTC reversing off of resistance. Key supports are the white down trend line from the 2nd peak, red trend line and the yellow confirmation level. If BTC follows the 2017/2018 movement then it should continue down to the high 9k range, pull back several times then bottom out within the next week or so.

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Updated chart. Now we'll find out how strong that reversal at $9,300 was. The next 8 hours will be important because if price stays level the daily candle closes indicating more downward movement while the 4 hour shows possible signs of reversal and the 8 hour could go either way... not good for bulls. However, based on the 2017/2018 comparison chart there should be 1 or 2 pullbacks before bottoming out and that would fit the estimated timeline.

I added some minor resistance trend lines and if BTC can't overcome them, expect the confirmation level to be retested.

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BTC failed to break above the first minor trend line and is currently retesting the confirmation zone. If it fails, expect BTC to continue down into the support zone.

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My apologies, I meant to say validates, not fails. If price doesn't rebound from $9,740, the double top formation fails. If it confirms below, the double top is validated and should drop into the support zones.

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BTC once again fails the double top confirmation and is trading at the red trend line though volume is weak. What little momentum there is could carry it to the minor resistances in dotted orange but unless buy volume increases substantially, I'd expect BTC to come back down and retest the confirmation level with an 82% chance it validates this time. BTC is creating lower highs with every rejection and implies that it's only a matter of time before it validates the double top. This pullback delays the validation but it's still well within my estimated time line and as I noted in a prior update, I expected a pullback or two before the drop. It's important to consider that while alts are recovering a major BTC drop would give back most if not all of those gains since they reversed off of their long term supports.

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This latest drop should be considered part of the pullback because it's consolidating within the substructure (green dotted line) of the last retest. There's a very small H&S formation that won't reverse the trend but should be enough to send BTC back over the red trend line to test the orange dotted resistance.

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*Inverse H&S formation

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Sorry for the late update and small, crunched screenshot. I'm on vacation at the lake house on a much lower resolution laptop so I can't give a nice expanded view.

The BTC pullback continues to struggle trying to break above the red trend line and if it does it'll find more resistance overhead.

*A solid reversal is going to require significantly increased buy volume for BTC to break above the next few levels of resistance. This would show the market that the support of the recent higher lows are legitimate vs. a last attempt to rally by hopeful bulls before succumbing to the bears.*

The MACD and RSI both show BTC approaching a bearish upper trend line (green circles) which indicates a move down. Combined with multiple retests of the double top formation, similarities to the 2017/2018 run, many alts trading under significant resistances and BTC sitting right under the 4 hour 50MA (not pictured), there are more indications that price is going to decline rather than increase. After this pullback if price once again drops to retest the confirmation zone there's an 82.2% chance the double top validates and price moves down into the support zones.

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BTC has dropped below the confirmation level and is slowing pulling back. Buy volume is low and unless it picks up significantly price should head into the support zones.

BTC does have support at the .382 Fib ($9,304) and there is a ~50 day trend line (not pictured) that was pierced briefly, however the lower trend line on the RSI was pierced (red circle) which usually means that lower trend line will be broken again and the MACD crossed over to bearish and while it's trying to cross bullish (red circle) there are more indications that price will head lower after the pullback.

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BTC was heading lower when 3k of BTC was bought in less than 5 minutes sending the price right back to the confirmation level and surrounding resistances.

I don't know what to make of the recent candle with the abnormally long wick. Given its position it could be considered a spring but springs don't overshadow the prior low. It could be a hanging man but then again, hanging man candles don't stretch below prior lows. Regardless, it's safer to wait and see what the market thinks it is rather than be the guinea pig so if price stays below the confirmation zone then the validated double top and eventual move to the support zones can be expected. If the price breaks above the confirmation zone there's several more resistances that must be overcome before the bull run resumes and makes the next move up.

Based on everything thus far I believe this latest push has enough momentum for BTC to trade near the confirmation level before eventually heading down into the support zones. I don't see BTC breaking through 5-6 resistances without having consistently stronger buy volume. Looking at the monthly, weekly and daily charts BTC would benefit from a deeper correction before moving higher. Even if BTC were to move above the short term resistances, the trend line drawn from the first peak through the second peak (~ and declining) is a major resistance to overcome. For now BTC will have to do its thing. Seeing how the market reacts to this latest push will give better insight as to what can be expected moving forward.

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BTC has formed a diamond which typically signals a trend reversal when positioned at the bottom. But is BTC at bottom? The long wick of the candle that makes the structure is usually found on diamond tops and implies downward movement. BTC is still trading under the confirmation level with an 82.2% chance of falling into the support zones.

On the other hand the long wick was a result of bears trying to drive the price down and the bulls fighting back showing support around the .382 Fib as it did ~11 days ago when BTC bottomed out then. One could argue that this could be a double bottom, however it's in a neutral position with support under it which doesn't offer the same probabilities for reversal when positioned at the bottom without support under it.

Overall I still believe that it's a matter of time until BTC heads lower. This diamond might cause a move up but it won't be sustained unless there's a strong bullish candle that breaks through multiple resistances followed by strong buy volume on subsequent candles.

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BTC is trading right under the red trend line which is a key resistance. Volume on the daily is slowly growing and BTC has bounced off of the orange dotted resistance turned support. If volume increases it's likely that BTC will break above the red trend line and that should act as a major support moving forward. If BTC can't break above, the selloff should be quick and sharp so I'd rather wait and buy the throwback once it moves above the red trend line or let BTC drop until it finds support before entering any long positions.

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BTC has a decent bullish 4hr candle that closed completely over the red trend line. I'd expect BTC to retest $11.3k and perhaps the top of the channel ~$11.6k. Not a bad place to open a swing position with a tight stoploss to make 5-7%.

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On the daily candles BTC has been slowing creeping up with buy volume staying under the volume moving average. I don't like it when that happens because it usually means BTC is about to make a move sharply up or down. It's easy to lose 5 days of slow gains and I don't want to risk stop loss and slippage if it drops so I'm fine with closing out my swing positions and taking profit here.

BTC movement has stalled around $10.8k and on most exchanges BTC has a huge sell limit at $11k. Above that there's $11.3k and $11.7k as resistance so if BTC breaks upwards, good for those who stayed in. Capital preservation for me is key and I've never lost money taking profit so cashing out and waiting to see how Asian markets react to all this slow growth Monday morning will give a clearer picture moving forward.

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I'd also like to add that if BTC drops here and the red trend line holds (~$10.6k) then that would put the swing trade to $11.3 and $11.6k back in play.

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$11.3k target has hit and BTC is still trading under the daily volume moving average. At some point volume is going to explode and the concern is still if it's going to be upward or downwards.

In the short term, BTC looks convinced like it's going to test the upper trend line ~$11.6k so I'm going to close out the rest of my position there and wait to see what happens next.

Trade closed: target reached

$11.6k hit. I'll close this out and start a new chart once a new setup develops.

Regera

Related publications

BTC Bump and Run Reversal

by Regera

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