BTC is ready to explode. Heres some thoughts to consider.
Updated
Happy Thursday Everyone,
I thought I would share a quick update on BTC from several perspectives. I track traditional equities and macroeconomic trends as closely as I track BTC and Ethereum so I hope this analysis adds a little value to your research.
Its almost impossible at this point to find a single notable bearish metric for BTC or Ethereum from a fundamental perspective. Although this chart is for BTC, I feel that aside from the chart analysis, everything listed below applies to ETH directly as well. From a technical analysis perspective, we see previous resistance flipped to support. Healthy volume and sideways accumulation above a traditionally extremely challenging level of resistance. On chain data suggests that this recent price action is almost purely driven by long term investors and “strong hands”. I generally tend to avoid indicators like MACD and RSI at this point. We are technically still in a price discovery phase, so indicators like the RSI and MACD tend to break down in these levels. I prefer to focus on the assets respect to its current price channel and how it reacts to its locals levels of support and resistance. Keep it simple. No need to over analyze price discovery. We just need to observe its price action.
Notable On Chain Metrics
-Supply shock ratio highest since 2017
-Highest exchange outflows since 2018
-Illiquid Supply at ATH
-Long Term Whale Addresses at ATH
Macroeconomic Perspective
The Fed announced yesterday that they will begin tapering at a slow rate beginning as early as the end of this month. The Fed is expected to cut Treasurys by $10 billion a month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion. Tapering is expected to continue through Q3 of 2022. On the surface, this may appear bearish for BTC but it is actually bullish due to the fact that the Fed has essentially forecasted how long they expect inflation to be out of control without outside intervention. I see this as a major catalyst to BTC once the market has a chance to digest this. With that being said, this could strengthen the narrative of those who believe in a lengthened cycle through 2022
We have yet to see retail traders start to step in, FOMO hasn’t even begun yet and media coverage, for all intents or purposes, has been relatively quiet. We are in the eye of the storm at this point.
Fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the ride.
I thought I would share a quick update on BTC from several perspectives. I track traditional equities and macroeconomic trends as closely as I track BTC and Ethereum so I hope this analysis adds a little value to your research.
Its almost impossible at this point to find a single notable bearish metric for BTC or Ethereum from a fundamental perspective. Although this chart is for BTC, I feel that aside from the chart analysis, everything listed below applies to ETH directly as well. From a technical analysis perspective, we see previous resistance flipped to support. Healthy volume and sideways accumulation above a traditionally extremely challenging level of resistance. On chain data suggests that this recent price action is almost purely driven by long term investors and “strong hands”. I generally tend to avoid indicators like MACD and RSI at this point. We are technically still in a price discovery phase, so indicators like the RSI and MACD tend to break down in these levels. I prefer to focus on the assets respect to its current price channel and how it reacts to its locals levels of support and resistance. Keep it simple. No need to over analyze price discovery. We just need to observe its price action.
Notable On Chain Metrics
-Supply shock ratio highest since 2017
-Highest exchange outflows since 2018
-Illiquid Supply at ATH
-Long Term Whale Addresses at ATH
Macroeconomic Perspective
The Fed announced yesterday that they will begin tapering at a slow rate beginning as early as the end of this month. The Fed is expected to cut Treasurys by $10 billion a month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion. Tapering is expected to continue through Q3 of 2022. On the surface, this may appear bearish for BTC but it is actually bullish due to the fact that the Fed has essentially forecasted how long they expect inflation to be out of control without outside intervention. I see this as a major catalyst to BTC once the market has a chance to digest this. With that being said, this could strengthen the narrative of those who believe in a lengthened cycle through 2022
We have yet to see retail traders start to step in, FOMO hasn’t even begun yet and media coverage, for all intents or purposes, has been relatively quiet. We are in the eye of the storm at this point.
Fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the ride.
Note
BREAKING: EU has decided to pause its interest rate hikes. This adds to BTC bullishness
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