Bearish momentum divergences and price action on almost all timeframes is signaling a potential top here. My Elliott Wave count (which I have been following since June 2021) is indicating that the forecasted wave-B could be coming to a conclusion. This is based largely on the fact that the time of wave-B is related to wave-A by 161%, which is a common time for wave-B to end, and it has already made a new high above wave-A as well as a 2nd new high shortly after. It also gives us the perfect amount of time for wave-C to end in late February 2022.
I've also noticed quite a bit of exuberance on crypto twitter, which is usually one of the first signs that the market is nearing a top. A lot of people are expecting Bitcoin to hit 100k by the end of the year, which is seeming less likely at this point unless we are able to break 69k resistance with quite a bit of force in the coming weeks. For now it seems like being hedged for most cryptos is a good idea, I will unhedge if BTC makes convincing new highs. This leaves us with very minimal risk of missing out on any massive uptrend, but also prevents any large loss of profits from a large correction in the market.
After we hit 40k in February, we should see a massive move up which will take BTC well past 100k in 2022. In the mean time it may be a good idea to be on the look out for some unique gems that break the downtrend.
I've also noticed quite a bit of exuberance on crypto twitter, which is usually one of the first signs that the market is nearing a top. A lot of people are expecting Bitcoin to hit 100k by the end of the year, which is seeming less likely at this point unless we are able to break 69k resistance with quite a bit of force in the coming weeks. For now it seems like being hedged for most cryptos is a good idea, I will unhedge if BTC makes convincing new highs. This leaves us with very minimal risk of missing out on any massive uptrend, but also prevents any large loss of profits from a large correction in the market.
After we hit 40k in February, we should see a massive move up which will take BTC well past 100k in 2022. In the mean time it may be a good idea to be on the look out for some unique gems that break the downtrend.
Trade closed: stop reached
The market ran our stops, so I've have taken a minimal loss on this trade. Looks like a run to 80k by Thanksgiving is likely before wave-B could end. This will also give alts time to hit their price targets of >wave-A.
I will revisit this longer-term Monthly chart when it looks like Wave-B could be topping out again.
Trade active
Bitcoin got rejected hard at 69k, it's looking like the bears might win here and we could see a big correction occurring now. 80k isn't off the table yet but it is getting less likely the longer this stays under 69kNote
Bitcoin is still stuck under resistance. Looks like we're preparing for the next leg down soon.
Note
A move to 35k is actually slightly more likely than 40k. While 40k (61% retracement) remains a minimum target for wave-C, wave-B has formed into a double combination which are frequently retraced 80%, which would put Bitcoin at 35k.
Note
We will probably break out of the bottom of this channel and then bounce back to around 60k before getting a big wave-3 down around the end of the year.
This wave down will likely coincide with global lockdowns and a massive stock market correction.
Note
Looks like wave-2 has just ended and we should get wave-3 down to around 38k, so far everything is keeping up perfectly with our time and price projections for this to end at 35k around feb/march
Note
It's starting to look like this is going to break under 30k and could actually go all the way down to 23k before we see a bottom start to form.
Global markets have yet to correct and BTC has already hit 40k, while the risk of global markets correcting is now higher than ever. If a market correction occurs than BTC is going to head much lower than 35k.
Trade closed: target reached
We reached my 80% retracement target and are seeing some very strong buy signals. The stock market had a large correction as expected and also seems to be bottoming out. The correction was largely speculation driven and the FED is probably going to crush the shorts during the FOMC this week.Moved to following this new chart based off of the same idea:
I no longer post here. Find me on x.com/intuit_trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I no longer post here. Find me on x.com/intuit_trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.