BTC; The bull forest from the bear trees!
Updated
I have posted a couple of times about BTC heading downward. Sure my H&S was incorrect, and my fractal comparison with ethereum's last correction was a tad early. But yet here we are; bear country!
I've been following a massive bear flag for the past week, but didn't want to jump the gun, as I had in my previous short BTC calls.
Also a few days back there was a chance that it could have also been a symmetrical triangle, which coming out of a bull run tends to infer continuation to the upside.
So I kept both options on the table until BTC broke the lower flag trend line and headed south for the winter (only if you are in the northern hemisphere, which I am not).
Once our target of around 10k USD hit, we saw a nice bounce, and why shouldn't we; it was only a month before that BTC hit 20k..... and now you can have that same BTC for 50% off! Bargain!!
But, as time progressed, a rising wedge started to appear:
And as cryptos so often do, they break out of the D instead of completing the pattern (so impatient!!!):
I believe we are heading lower, to approximately 8.4k - 9.1k until we see a solid bounce.
However, I don't believe we can call the bottom at that level. I think we are in a bigger falling wedge which is super bullish on the macro level, but is short term bearish considering the delta between the high and low within the wedge.
So my advice for now; hold tight and ensure you have plenty of cash on hand to buy the lows (6k - 7.5k, and if you are feeling frisky, swing from ~9k -
12K). We could be seeing new ATH's in a few short months.
I've been following a massive bear flag for the past week, but didn't want to jump the gun, as I had in my previous short BTC calls.
Also a few days back there was a chance that it could have also been a symmetrical triangle, which coming out of a bull run tends to infer continuation to the upside.
So I kept both options on the table until BTC broke the lower flag trend line and headed south for the winter (only if you are in the northern hemisphere, which I am not).
Once our target of around 10k USD hit, we saw a nice bounce, and why shouldn't we; it was only a month before that BTC hit 20k..... and now you can have that same BTC for 50% off! Bargain!!
But, as time progressed, a rising wedge started to appear:
And as cryptos so often do, they break out of the D instead of completing the pattern (so impatient!!!):
I believe we are heading lower, to approximately 8.4k - 9.1k until we see a solid bounce.
However, I don't believe we can call the bottom at that level. I think we are in a bigger falling wedge which is super bullish on the macro level, but is short term bearish considering the delta between the high and low within the wedge.
So my advice for now; hold tight and ensure you have plenty of cash on hand to buy the lows (6k - 7.5k, and if you are feeling frisky, swing from ~9k -
12K). We could be seeing new ATH's in a few short months.Note
A quick update; * We have hit our first inverted HVF target at about 10.8k
* We had a bounce from 10.8k, as expected, to try and test the bottom of the wedge.
* This was rejected at about 11.4k which also happens to be where the wedge broke.
* We have been as low as 10.6k, however I expected the 2nd leg down to be a bit more ferocious than it has been.
* We are making mini bear flags, so I'm hoping to see another move downwards soon.
Note
Things were on track until.......... That's a lot of volume very suddenly. Lets see where this takes us.
Note
It seems we are working on a larger rising wedge now:Note
Note
The larger rising wedge seems to be nearing completionThe 4HR TF looks terrible for BTC. The Stoch RSI is overbought, and it has just completed a spinning top, TD 9 candle!!!
If it falls out of the wedge, it could be a quick drop to the bottom of the larger falling wedge: 8.6k - 8.8k
Note
The wedge broke convincingly to the down side we suspected it would:The stoch rsi has so much room to run, as well as the TD, I'm pretty confident we will see the upper end of 8k.
Note
The downward trend continues:Note
Note
We have had an interesting few days of price action.* Our wedge broke nicely (see last comment)
* When then went back up to test the bottom of the wedge for resistance and were rejected
* Price went lower but began forming another rising wedge / bear flag
I went back over the last few days and found some fractals:
I also cross referenced against the moving averages, and things aren't looking too pretty for the bulls.
When you take a daily view, it becomes much clearer:
* The 20 and 50 MA's crossed a week back and we saw a big sell off
* Typically when this happens the target becomes the 200 MA which is around 7.5k - 8k
Note
The rising wedge set up looks almost identical to the previous one: Look for it to go below the 20EMA and 50MA, then a nice short is in play!
Note
We broke down nicely out of the wedge, but started to run up again. So we had to switch from a wedge to a bear flag. The outcome was the same in the end.And this is what capitulated selling looks like:
This is looking very scary for anyone who is currently holding large amounts of BTC.
As I mentioned in my first post, hold tight, and get your cash ready, because there will be a great buying opportunity, but we just have to be patient!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.