Long

Bitcoin - This is it! WE CLOSED ABOVE DOWNTREND.

Updated

Warriors!

This is it. Bitcoin got out of the downtrend. The daily candle closed ABOVE the downtrend line.
OF COURSE at the very last minute there was a sudden drop in price to scare people off, but we still remained ABOVE the downtrend on the daily.
Could be a bull trap, but odds are pretty good in favor of the bulls.
Don't be surprised if we see a very bullish day today.
It is safe to assume alot of money must be waiting on the side for Bitcoin to break that downtrend.

Congratulations to anyone that got in at 9-10k (or below of course).

There's so many arguments for the bulls right now on the chart:
- We're over the downtrend since 20k.
- Big bullish pennant:

BTC. Being prepared for the bounce - 15% is realistic.

- Inverse Head and shoulders that many people posted, as well as a cup and handle, with both the same target

- Wave pattern:

- Monthly chart (candle closes tommorow - from user Yarr):

- We got a morning star

The selling happened just before the day closes, in the last 2-3 minutes

+++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). Trade at your own risk +++

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Keep an eye on the 4HR inside bar. In this market, anything is possible, we could fall fast, but imo the longer we are consolidated, the less likely we are to fall.
Have to be ready at all time for a sudden move...

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As has happened so many times lately, we broke out of consolidation, then went back in. The cool thing is every hour, the downtrend gets further away. A bit over 5/hour, and close to 150$ per day.
We don't actually need to move to reduce the risk of falling hard.
And a whale could decide to make a giant sell but if they do they'll be risking millions going against the trend and gifting cheap BTC, plus the market makers will quickly start taking advantage of him I think :)
Even if Market makers in crypto aren't professionals yet.

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If we repeat what we've been doing over and over the past few weeks, we're going to go close to the low of the mother bar and then back up.
If we go below, got to watch if the pink line holds.

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Tested the line be careful!

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Lots of stop losses got triggered.
But what will happen next??? Feels like the casino sometimes.

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Would be nice if we could just go higher before retracing much...
This are the fibo levels, bounced on 0.382 for now.
Why does this always have to happen... And at the worse times...

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Daily and weekly indicators are pointing towards buy tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/technicals/

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Didn't finish my sentence.
So TA is about putting the odds in your favor. And the odds are pointing towards buy... Not my opinion...
I don't know how much longer BTC will maintain the suspense it has already been 24 hours...

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Looking at volume and Stoch RSI.

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Hate Bitcoin... always have, always will. I miss the days of January when an alt had a 30% bull run in a day every day there was a new alt to ride... What wonderful times.
Mooaaar suspense from Bitcoin let's wait MOAAAAR I love waiting ages.
The worse it ever did was back in MtGox hacking fiasco days when it dropped 50% in 2 days, so it's not like we can go crash to 6000 in the next hours without having time to react....

Falling below the downtrend could hurt, but as long as we stay above 0.618 fibo it's fine.

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Bitcoin absolutely loves to hang on the edge of a cliff.

Let's say whales are manipulating the market over and over again.
People that bought long ago and got lucky.
I got a question for them, what's wrong? Too low IQ to make money without being lucky and cheating?

Don't worry once the crypto market loses correlation to Bitcoin I'm leaving it to die and never touching it again and many other people will too. Oh the godlike day this happens. Heavens shall shine!

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Scenario that allows us to breathe:

If there wasn't the downtrend I'd expect Bitcoin to retrace to 0.5 about 10200 (would already have happened by now) and then go further up.

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All consolidated just like yesterday. Could take a while.
The StochRSI is finally going down on the 4HR meaning we could be getting ready for a shift in momentum, back up.
I'm feeling more confident now than a couple of hours ago.
The downtrend has been supportive for a while, it has been broke about 32 hours ago which IMO is a sign of strength.

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Lines to keep an eye on if we fall below 10356

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Now wait a second...

lol?

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And some are way under...

Hmmm that line...
If it wasn't there we'd already have went to fib 0.5 and then up or down...

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Inside bar, inside of inside bar. Sure. Why not?

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Another fake breakout or actually going up?

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Unless that was a trap to buy a bit cheaper....?

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Scam fake breakout once again. Some people shorting might have gotten scammed.
So the day closed ON the line. The uncertaintly continues.
The stats are as follow for every market: when we go up, after an impulse, the chance of retracing to 0.5 or 0.618 before going back up are 2/3.
The odds of going to 0.786 then up are small, like 10%.

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Some people see elliot waves all the time, I see triangle and pennants and flags all the time.

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We pretty much bounced on 0.5. Of course it was hard to go higher when being overbought and every thing, but I thought we'd see some more bullish action.
Well it did go above 11000.
We never spent that much time at that downtrend, not even close, Bitcoin isn't going to leave us off the hook that easy. If 0.5 doesn't hold, 0.618 has to.
If we're still there friday night, I don't know what will happen next, the week end is always pretty slow, I don't want to see Bitcoin stay in this uncertainty till next week...
Either go down and I make small profit, or go up and I make big profit...
Don't just sleep forever.

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I guess this triangle meant something I'm not jsut seeing triangles everywhere :p
Looking at the 4HR timeframe I imagine we're going to get a green day.
If we go above 11k from nhow to Friday, we could spend the week end consolidated somewhere in the 11000 region, probably get a flag or triangle again.
While the downtrend gets further away every passing moment...

youtube.com/watch?v=dWdFNf_zXR4

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A bit early to break out of consolidation if you ask me...
Let's have the same thing as usual happen, go above the line, then pullback inside the formation, and then probably go up again...

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I'm not that much into Elliot waves, but for fun I did one.
Guidelines with Elliot waves:
- Wave 2 is 50% to 100% of wave 1 (NEVER more than 100%). Here we retraced to 0.5 fibo.
- Wave 3 is USUALLY 161.8% of wave 1 (would end at 13000$ which is my first target)
- Wave 4 is often ~1/3 of wave 3. When wave 1 had a small correction, wave 4 is bigger.
- Wave 5 is complicated ... Can be the size of wave 1.
- Within the Elliot waves there's smaller waves that are more complicated to guess and more subjective.
- Elliot waves can be highly subjective

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Possible too:

There's too many possibilities with waves...
Just for fun, and if it fits all the rest.

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Zooming in I can see 0.618 is being tested in the small wave up, if that doesn't hold I'll be looking at the larger impulse retrace levels, in particular the 10500 region.

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New downtrend, but much less space for BTC to move, and going above the resistance won't give a big boost, well I should always say probably.
Super risky to long, better short and short more as it goes higher imo.
There's all these resistances and no one's interested in buying, only a bunch of delusional hodlers think people want to buy (they're just holding they're not even buying) and a couple bad traders that love to FOMO and go high risk low reward.

Now, we go 4-5000 then bounce and go above the new downtrend? Oooh that will be a big boost! To the moon!
I guess I'll probably, long at the bottom, close on the blue line and short, then reopen long once we go above...

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This might mean the old line is actually still relevant!
I should make a list of things to keep an eye on...

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Again but...This time no long idea sorry, this time it's too risky for me.
If we get a nice 15% I'm dumping hard.

MrRenev

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