Hello everyone,
Today I have some new research to share with you. You can see that we had a fantastic runup. Confidence is slowly returning to the market, but there is definitly still alot of doubt and uncertaintly
Looking at bitcoin I think we went a little bit too fast. To destroy 9k and capture it we need a little more dynamite, people are getting too nervous around these heights.
To collect more dynamite we are in need of a retracement.
If you check the 4HR RSI on my chart you can see that there is a bearish divergence forming. This is foreshadowing a move down for Bitcoin. It is still possible to make a leap at 9+ k, but I do not think it will last long and it would only enlarge the bearish divergence.
I noticed that Ethereum is doing the same thing and the divergence on ETH is already alot further in the making. As alot of these coins in the market are linked ETH provides us with another evidence of a correction.
So where do we retrace towards? I might have an idea. Wait, actually before we dive into the retracement I want to show you something else.
Because hey you are all taking about retracement but where the hell is bitcoin actually heading?
Well to find out where we are going I start to study a bull trend from the past and one thing that you can notice is that price always moves into channels. (That's also in a bear trend by the way).
Here is an example of a previous runup before the parabola:
So you can see that the price bounces in these channels. Within these channels there are also sub channels.
So I tried to find 'our' channel and as you can see we are a around the top part of the channel. Which means we will probaly go down to visit the lower part of the channel again. Once we completed that we should bounce to climb to the top part of the channel... again.
I've combined the channel with our fibionacci retracement tool to give us an idea of to where we could go and from there it is giving me the levels that I have posted in my chart. First target 84xx. If we would go deeper then 8xxx
I think that once we have done our retracement we are ready to obliterate 9k and continue our march to victory.
Regarding the psychogological state of the market: You can see that confidence is growing. There is still alot of uncertainty, but as you have noticed the amount of 2014 disaster fractal charts is already decreasing which is good.
Now take a look at this chart:
thumbnails-visually.netdna-ssl.com/the-investor-sentiment-wheel_503cd83144993_w1500.jpg
I think we are currently in the blue zone of uncertain.
Keep in mind that a build to a bullrun takes time. It is not going overnight. But the more bitcoin grows in price the more hype it will create. The market is currently still in strong hands and the money throwing people come in a few months.
Please keep in mind that this is just a scenario. Do your own research and make your own decisions.
Goodluck everyone!
Today I have some new research to share with you. You can see that we had a fantastic runup. Confidence is slowly returning to the market, but there is definitly still alot of doubt and uncertaintly
Looking at bitcoin I think we went a little bit too fast. To destroy 9k and capture it we need a little more dynamite, people are getting too nervous around these heights.
To collect more dynamite we are in need of a retracement.
If you check the 4HR RSI on my chart you can see that there is a bearish divergence forming. This is foreshadowing a move down for Bitcoin. It is still possible to make a leap at 9+ k, but I do not think it will last long and it would only enlarge the bearish divergence.
I noticed that Ethereum is doing the same thing and the divergence on ETH is already alot further in the making. As alot of these coins in the market are linked ETH provides us with another evidence of a correction.
So where do we retrace towards? I might have an idea. Wait, actually before we dive into the retracement I want to show you something else.
Because hey you are all taking about retracement but where the hell is bitcoin actually heading?
Well to find out where we are going I start to study a bull trend from the past and one thing that you can notice is that price always moves into channels. (That's also in a bear trend by the way).
Here is an example of a previous runup before the parabola:
So you can see that the price bounces in these channels. Within these channels there are also sub channels.
So I tried to find 'our' channel and as you can see we are a around the top part of the channel. Which means we will probaly go down to visit the lower part of the channel again. Once we completed that we should bounce to climb to the top part of the channel... again.
I've combined the channel with our fibionacci retracement tool to give us an idea of to where we could go and from there it is giving me the levels that I have posted in my chart. First target 84xx. If we would go deeper then 8xxx
I think that once we have done our retracement we are ready to obliterate 9k and continue our march to victory.
Regarding the psychogological state of the market: You can see that confidence is growing. There is still alot of uncertainty, but as you have noticed the amount of 2014 disaster fractal charts is already decreasing which is good.
Now take a look at this chart:
thumbnails-visually.netdna-ssl.com/the-investor-sentiment-wheel_503cd83144993_w1500.jpg
I think we are currently in the blue zone of uncertain.
Keep in mind that a build to a bullrun takes time. It is not going overnight. But the more bitcoin grows in price the more hype it will create. The market is currently still in strong hands and the money throwing people come in a few months.
Please keep in mind that this is just a scenario. Do your own research and make your own decisions.
Goodluck everyone!
Note
The divergence on bitcoin is getting worse. I think that the downfall is closing in.I wanted to share with you another possible pattern that we will have to look out for if it will finish:
Inverse head and shoulders. I think that there is a good chance that Bitcoin will test the downtrend channel. The big red line in my chart It was once a big resistance line and could now be a major support line. The bottom of this pattern could bring it to 81xx.
I'll let you know if I find some more!
Goodluck everyone.
Note
Ok, This is the part where alot of people get super euforic. TBH yesterday I thought it would go and fall already but you can see that it pushed through to 92xx . I did put 92xx at the chart in my intial analysis as an option and I told you that if it would reach 9k+ it would only create a bigger divergence. And it did.
Next to that you can see that we reached the top part of the channel. I'd really be surprised if bitcoin manages to break this channel. I think a pullback is very close.
Note
When people get euforic I tend to get a bit cautionousNote
ETHNote
Hey everyone,Still alive? Sorry for my lack of update! As you can see we had our retrace. I completely miscalculated though as you can see. I really didn't expect bitcoin to rally like it this. That move was crazy!
Anyway by doing so we have some new information. The channel in which bitcoin moves looks pretty clear now. You can see that we found support at 89xx.
RSI on the 4hour is at the 50' range which is a good sign. (Bull trend RSI usually doesn't go lower than 40 unless there is like major major selloff).
I think we go sideways a bit, let people cool down and then we should have clearance to move toward 10k.
Greetings,
Vincent.
Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.